Category: Forecasts

Seasonal Temperatures With a Chance of Showers

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Seasonal temperatures will persist in Winnipeg for a couple more days with a chance of showers as a couple disturbances pass through the region.

RDPS 300mb Height and Wind Forecast valid 18Z Saturday June 17, 2023
This small shortwave and associated jet streak (blue/purple shading) entering southwest Manitoba on Saturday is the source of much uncertainty for the day’s weather.

Temperatures will climb to a high near 20 °C today as a slow-moving front begins nudging its way into the Red River Valley. It will bring a slight chance of some showers with it, but none of them will likely be particularly intense and no widespread rain will come from this system. The cloud cover will break up a bit for the evening, then temperatures will dip into the low teens overnight.

On Saturday, some more showers are possible as an upper-level disturbance pushes across the region. There’s still some uncertainty on this one with very divergent solutions between Canadian and American weather models. The Canadian forecasts are producing an area of rain that will push across the region midday into the afternoon. The American models, on the other hand, keep it dry. Personally, I’m hoping for the dry solution for an event on the day, but it’s really a toss-up right now. Things will become much more apparent later today when it materializes well to our southwest and we can see what it’s able to start producing.

Aside from that, Winnipeg will likely see mixed to cloudy skies on Saturday with a high in the low to mid-20s. Skies will clear out overnight with temperatures dropping into the mid-teens.

On Sunday, heat will begin to build back into the region. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 20s under mainly sunny skies. Humidity levels will stay comfortable, making for a beautiful summer afternoon.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will continue the trend of warm weather with daytime highs in the low 30s gradually easing into the mid- to upper-20s.

Unlike the last bout of heat we experienced, this warmth will be the response of a deep upper trough digging southwards along the west coast. As a result, conditions will become fairly unsettled next week over the southern Prairies with several disturbances tracking through that will bring a risk of thunderstorms to the region.

The main risk should primarily stay to the west and north of southern Manitoba through the first half of the week, but stormier weather is likely in the second half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Cold Front Brings Relief From Hot and Humid Weather

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A cold front passing out of the province today will usher a cooler and drier air mass into southern Manitoba. This will bring a welcome break from the hot and humid early-June weather the region has seen, along with more settled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 10, 2023
On Saturday, a high pressure centre moving in from the north will bring cooler daytime highs in the low 20s to southern Manitoba.

A cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba this morning, bringing some cloud, a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, and a breezy northerly wind. In Winnipeg, any chance for rain should end by midday, leaving dry conditions and a high in the mid-20s. Unfortunately, the city won’t see clear skies in the afternoon; behind the cold front, smoke from the northern Prairie forest fires will push into the region. It may end up being fairly noticeable for a few hours after the passage of the cold front, otherwise it should mainly appear as haze and not have too significant an impact on air quality. The winds will ease in the evening, then temperatures will head to an overnight low in the low teens, the coolest in a while.

Through the weekend, a large area of high pressure will settle into the region. Saturday and Sunday won’t bring cloud to the region, rather it will largely just be a question of how much smoke lingers over the region. Temperatures will be cool on Saturday with a high in the low 20s and a low near 10 °C. Temperatures will begin to warm on Sunday with a high back in the mid-20s and a low in the mid-teens.

Long Range Outlook

To start next week, daytime highs will once again climb back to around 30 °C. The humidity levels will stay much lower and keep the heat a bit more comfortable than last week. By mid-week, conditions could turn unsettled again and bring the chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region for several days.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Hot and Unsettled Weather Continues

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Hot and muggy weather will stick around in Winnipeg for a few more days along with more chances for thunderstorms. Some relief is on the way for the end of the week, though, with more seasonal conditions arriving on Friday.

A hot and humid air mass will remain in place over southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

An upper high entrenched over the eastern Prairies means little change is on the way for Winnipeg over the next few days. That said, there is a change on the way. A developing low pressure system over the southern Arctic is beginning to push cooler air into the northern Prairies. As it matures in the coming days, that cooler air will continue to slump southwards through the Prairies. By Friday, this cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba, clearing out the humidity and lowering temperatures back towards more seasonal values.

Before we get to that, though, there will be a few more days of hot and unsettled conditions in the Winnipeg area. The daytime high will reach the low 30s again today, then ease into the upper 20s for the next couple days. That humid air mass will keep overnight lows mild with lows in the 18 to 20 °C range.

Each of the next few days will also continue to bring a risk of thunderstorms across the region. Here in the Red River Valley, scattered thunderstorms are possible today, but not likely until closer to the evening. Much of the activity will stay west of the region on Wednesday, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible. On Thursday, a chance of thunderstorms will develop across the region later in the day as a cold front pushes through.

With the heat and humidity in the region, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over the region. That being said, most will likely be non-severe. Any that manage to organize to severe limits will mainly pose a torrential rain and hail threat.

Long Range Outlook

A break from the heat and humidity will stick around for the weekend, a welcome relief for many. Daytime highs will vary from the low to mid-20s this weekend, feeling very comfortable thanks to lower humidity levels. That drier air mass will also allow overnight lows to cool off into the low to mid-teens.

Warmer weather is expected to return next week with daytime highs climbing back into the 30s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.

Warm With Increasing Humidity This Week in Winnipeg

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After the scorching heat last week in the Winnipeg region, it might seem like this week will be cooler with highs of only the upper 20s. That slight cooling will be offset by more humidity in the region, with humidity levels possibly reaching downright muggy levels by Friday.

GDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 00Z June 3, 2023
A extended southerly flow will bring a more humid air mass from the Gulf of Mexico northwards to southern Manitoba by the week’s end.

It will be another unsettled day in the Winnipeg area thanks to a shortwave lifting across the region from the Dakotas. As it moves into the warm and relatively humid air mass in our region, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop. These will persist through the afternoon and into the evening before tapering off.  The city will see a high in the mid-20s give way to an overnight low in the mid-teens.

Heading into mid-week, an upper ridge will begin to build over Central Canada. It will bring warmer temperatures to the region while also supporting a deep southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico northwards through the American Plains. Daytime highs will rise into the upper 20s, but at the same time, an increasingly muggy air mass will build northwards. Dew point temperatures will increase from around the mid-teens to close to 20 °C by Friday. This will make for very muggy conditions to end the week that will make the highs in the upper 20s feel more like the mid-30s.

Along with the heat and humidity will come some unsettled conditions as well. Isolated to scattered [thunder]showers may be possible as the week progresses.

Long Range Outlook

Very warm conditions will return for the weekend with daytime highs likely climbing into the low 30s. If the humidity remains high, then it would almost certainly result in another heat warning for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Again, though, it won’t be completely stable and some showers or thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend.

More settled conditions will return next week as the humidity begins to leave the region. With a drier air mass, highs will hover in the upper 20s with overnight lows in the mid-teens through the first half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.