A cold front that passed through yesterday will try to cool things off in Winnipeg, but the heat won’t be kept down for long with well above-normal temperatures bouncing back into the region for the weekend.

A cooler air mass will be in place over Winnipeg today, ushered in by a series of cold fronts which passed through the region on Thursday. Today’s high temperatures will sit around 6°C across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley under sunny skies. While this is 7°C cooler than yesterday and 12°C cooler than Wednesday’s high of 18.8°C, a high of 6°C is still well above the seasonal average high of 0°C.

The wind will begin to pick up out of the south this afternoon, first to 20-30 km/h and then strengthen to 30-40 km/h tonight as a warm front pushes across the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip to a low near 3°C.

Saturday will bring milder air back to Southern Manitoba. With the warm front off to our east, mainly sunny skies, and light winds, the high of 12 or 13°C will feel quite pleasant. Temperatures will drop to a low near 4°C on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mixed skies as a cold front sweeps through midday. Temperatures will reach a high near 11 or 12°C before the front comes through, and then the winds will pick up out of the northwest to 20-30 km/h. It doesn’t appear that the passage of the front will bring any rain to the region, but a very light sprinkle can’t be ruled out.

Temperatures will drop to a low near 0-1°C on Sunday night.

Long Range

It appears that the unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue for quite a while yet, with most outlooks showing no sign of significant abatement until next weekend. The biggest sign of change looks to be a system expected to track into our region on Friday November 18th. Models diverge on the general outcome of this system, with two primary possibilities:

1. A quick-moving system that slides through over 12-18 hours and produces 10-20 mm of rain over Southern Manitoba.
2. A significantly slower outcome: a potent Colorado Low that could potentially produce a blizzard over Southern Manitoba.

It’s still very early to speculate much on this, but the one thing that looks fairly certain is that, no matter which solution, it will mark a shift in the overall weather pattern that will bring temperatures (generally) back towards seasonal values.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.

Gusty northwesterly winds will flush out the warm air mass that has brought record-setting warmth to the Prairies over the past few days, however the air that moves in behind is still quite warm and above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.

Record High Temperatures Set on Sunday

Several high temperature records were broken yesterday across Southern Manitoba:

New Record High Temperatures Set on November 6, 2016 in Manitoba (Based on weather summary issued by EC at 4:50PM November 6, 2016)

Location	Temperature (°C)	Old Record (°C)
Winnipeg	17.0	16.7 (1975)
Brandon	18.0	17.8 (2009)
Berens River	19.0	16.7 (1916)
Fisher Branch	14.6	14.0 (1981)
Gillam	9.5	7.8 (1975)
Gretna	14.3	13.6 (2010)
Island Lake	18.0	15.0 (1975)
Norway House	13.0	12.2 (1975)
Pinawa	17.9	17.8 (1975)
Sprague	18.1	17.8 (1975)
The Pas	15.0	14.4 (1975)

Additionally, with dewpoint temperatures climbing up to 12.2°C at the airport, Winnipeg officially had its most humid November day on record, beating out the old record of 11.6°C set on November 5, 1956.

In fact, it was so humid that most roadways and sidewalks were wet as the humidity in the air condensed onto the cooler pavement, in some places making things so wet that it appeared like it had rained.

Cooler Start to the Week

Today will be a very windy day courtesy of a strong pressure gradient building into the region behind a low pressure system moving through early this morning. Winds will pick up this morning out of the northwest to about 40 km/h with gusts up in the 60-70 km/h range. Otherwise, we’ll see just a few clouds this morning before skies clear out, and then a bit of afternoon cloudiness returning. Temperatures will continue relatively mild, though, with a high near 11°C.

Skies should clear out overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 0°C with diminishing winds.

Tuesday will be a nicer day with a high once again near 11°C and light winds out of the south to southwest. Skies should be partly cloudy. Expect a low near 5°C on Tuesday night under mainly clear skies.

Wednesday will see warmer air once again return to the region. First, there’s a few suggestions that some fog patches may show up early in the morning, but if they were to develop, they would burn off quite quickly, so they wouldn’t be a concern outside of the early morning hours. After that, southerly winds of around 15-20 km/h will redevelop and help temperatures climb to a high near 14°C under fairly sunny conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 7°C.

Long Range

Above-seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of the week, however the second half of the week is looking a little cooler with highs in the 5-10°C range and with some more cloud cover.

Looking even further down the road, it appears that the general pattern of above-seasonal temperatures will remain in place into the last third of the month with the NAEFS alongside other guidance suggesting high probabilities of above-normal temperatures. It also continues to look quite dry through this period as well. A beautiful November continues!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

The arrival of warmer weather was delayed due to an extensive fog bank that developed on Wednesday night and persisted through Thursday as fog, mist and overcast skies. Fortunately, that cloud has now been shunted eastwards by a warm front pushing eastwards across the Prairies and the warmer weather promised in our last blog post will arrive today.

Weather Setup

The main feature that will dominate the weather over the coming days is an upper-level ridge establishing itself over the Prairies.

This feature will draw highly unseasonal warmth across the entire Prairies and send temperatures over 10°C above normal for this time of year. Alongside the warmer weather, generally dry conditions will persist in areas where the upper-level ridge is established.

Forecast

Today will bring the first of the warmer days as westerly to southwesterly winds bring milder Pacific air eastwards into Southern Manitoba. Skies will be mixed as a weak disturbance brings some mid- to upper-level cloud to the region in the afternoon. Daytime highs in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will top out around 13°C. Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 4°C.

Saturday will be a very nice day with partly cloudy skies, light winds out of the south and temperatures climbing to around 15°C. Skies will remain fairly clear on Saturday night with temperatures dipping to near the 6°C mark.

Sunday will see increasing cloud in the afternoon as a disturbance moves up from the Dakotas into southern Manitoba, bringing with it a chance of showers overnight into Monday morning. It will be quite warm, though, with highs climbing up to around 16°C.

Long Range

After Sunday night’s disturbance, a southwesterly flow redevelops over the Prairies and the mild weather returns and persists until the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.