Winnipeg’s temperatures will warm towards more seasonal values this week, but a few passing disturbances will bring cloudier conditions with a chance of rain.
An occluding low pressure system will bring a swath of rain to southern Manitoba on Wednesday.
The weather will turn more spring-like in Winnipeg this week as the northerly flow in place over the region breaks ahead of approaching Pacific disturbances. Daytime highs will immediately respond to this change with highs climbing up into the low teens today. The return to warmer weather will occur under sunny skies and light winds.
The unsettled conditions will arrive mid-week. Skies will cloud over tonight ahead of an approaching low as temperatures dip into the low single digits. On Wednesday, breezy southerly winds will develop, followed by a band of rain that pushes across the Red River Valley. Driven by an occluding low pressure system, the region could see as much as 5 to 10 mm of rain as it moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10°C before cooling off once the rain begins. The rain will taper off by evening, but lingering showers will be possible through the night. The winds will ease Wednesday evening followed by temperatures down into the low single digits.
Cloudier conditions will linger for Thursday as another disturbance drops through the Prairies, but the organized rain with that system will stay further west. Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see a diminishing chance of showers as the day wears on. Temperatures will again climb to a high near 10 °C with a high north wind picking up through the day.
Long Range Outlook
Some sun will begin to poke out from behind the clouds on Friday with light north winds continuing. Another passing disturbance could bring some flurries late Friday night changing to rain showers on Saturday morning. Daytime highs will hover around 10 °C right through the weekend with lows in the 0 to 5 °C range.
Next week should bring sunnier skies and temperatures finally beginning to climb back to seasonal highs in the mid-teens.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.
Snow will come to an end over the region today as the storm that’s been stalled over the region finally moves east. Sunnier skies will return for the weekend as a high pressure system settles over the province.
A broad area of high pressure will settle across the eastern Prairies this weekend.
Snow continues to wrap into southern Manitoba this morning, but conditions will improve through the day. As the low responsible for our weather continues to trundle eastwards into Ontario, snow gradually weaken and taper off over southern Manitoba. It will be a bit of a slick and slippery morning as temperatures dip below zero and combine with fairly strong northerly winds near 50 gusting 70 km/h.
Temperatures will rebound to a high of only around +2 °C.
Skies will clear out tonight as winds ease to around 20 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a low in the mid-minus single digits.
For th weekend, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region and bring cool but settled conditions. Winnipeg and area will see variable cloudiness through the weekend with daytime highs in the mid- to upper-single digits. Overnight lows will likely dip into the -5 to -10 °C range.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will start off with quieter weather as temperatures gradually move towards more seasonal values. Some rain may be possible across the region late next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.
A slow-moving upper-level disturbance will bring cooler temperatures and plenty of snow to parts of southern Manitoba this week.
A potent, slow-moving upper low will bring a multi-day snowfall event to southern Manitoba.
Winnipeg and area will see a relatively pleasant spring day today as a ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the region. Temperatures will climb up to around the 10 °C mark this afternoon with increasing easterly winds towards evening.
A large upper-level disturbance will begin working into the region tonight. It will spread precipitation through Saskatchewan today, reaching SW Manitoba by the evening. This system may start as a wintery mix in Saskatchewan today, but will trend towards primarily a snow-maker as it moves into Manitoba.
This system will produce significant amounts of snowfall over southeast Saskatchewan into parts of SW and Parkland Manitoba. By Wednesday morning, 5–10 cm of snow will have likely fallen across those regions with another 10–20 cm through the day Wednesday. On Wednesday night, another 5–10 cm will fall across those areas, with higher possible along the escarpment west of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipegosis. The snow will gradually come to an end in those areas on Thursday, with accumulations ranging from a couple centimetres to as much as another 5–10 cm.
Further east in Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley, snow should push through the area in multiple waves. Some light snow or rain showers are possible later today, but copious amounts of dry air near the surface will likely evaporate much of that activity before it reaches the ground.
The first organized wave of snow will push into the region on Wednesday morning, moving northwards through the day. This will drop 2–5 cm across much of the Red River Valley on Wednesday, though amounts may increase quickly close to the western escarpment. Some periods of light snow are possible on Thursday, though much of the organized activity will likely remain to the west.
A more organized band of accumulating snow will push towards Winnipeg on Thursday evening as another wave of moisture wraps into the system impacting the area. This could bring Winnipeg’s heaviest snowfall of the event with the potential of anywhere from 5 to 15 cm of snow.
Throughout this entire disturbance, moderate easterly winds will slowly shift northerly over the course of the week, and temperatures will struggle to climb only at most to a few degrees above freezing. There is a slight chance that precipitation could briefly change over to rain, particularly for areas south of Winnipeg, if a bit of warmer air can wrap into this system at times.
The last note for this system is that in many areas, snow will fall with temperatures close to 0 °C. As a result, some may melt and much of the snow will be relatively heavy and prone to compaction. This may make measurable snow on the ground at the end of the event less than what actually fell.
Long Range Outlook
This system will finally begin to clear out of the region on Friday, followed by a couple days of seasonably cool temperatures.
A return to seasonal warmth with highs in the low teens should build into the region early next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -1 °C.
A strong upper ridge will spread a much warmer air mass into the eastern Prairies this weekend, marking the start of a widespread spring melt.
True-colour satellite imagery from Thursday evening reveals a widespread snowpack (white) across much of southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, and North Dakota.
As we mentioned on Tuesday, southern Manitoba will see a much warmer air mass move into the region this weekend as upper ridging persists over western Canada. While this feature will produce plenty of warm air that will head east, the biggest wrinkle in the whole thing is the extensive snow pack across southern Manitoba and North Dakota.
This deep layer of snow will keep the surface cooler and help support an inversion across the region. An inversion is when temperature warms as you go up instead of cooling. This can effectively limit the ability for the warmer air over top of the surface to reach down to the ground.
Mild air will certainly stream into the province this weekend. Temperatures at 850 mb — about 1.5 km above the ground — will climb from around 0 °C on Saturday to warmer than 15 °C on Tuesday into Wednesday. Now, if we had full sunshine and dry, bare ground, that could result in daytime highs climbing from the low teens into the upper 20s. But the snow will absolutely keep temperatures much cooler than that.
850mb temperature anomalies — how much warmer or colder than the seasonal average values — show the entire Prairies seeing a seasonably mild air mass by the end of the weekend (left image). Heading into next week, though, the air mass becomes unseasonably warm over the southeastern Prairies (right image). How this abnormal warmth will interact with the existing snowpack is unclear at this time.
The other factor to pay attention to that will dramatically impact how quickly the snow melts will be the dew point temperature. When the dew point is below freezing, it is easy for water that is draining through the snowpack to re-freeze within it. But when the dew point climbs above freezing, that process becomes much harder and the rate the snow pack will melt at increases. The dew point will likely climb to the positive side of freezing this weekend, then increase several degrees above freezing next week as the warmer air pushes into the region.
The last factor to take into account is what all this water that’s melting out of the snow will do. With warming temperatures aloft and a strong inversion, that moisture will be trapped near the surface. This could result in the development of fog and low clouds as the melt picks up, which would also work to reduce potential high temperatures and produce cloudier conditions that really lock temperatures fairly close to freezing. It’s simply impossible to tell at this time if that will happen this weekend, but it’s a possibility to keep in mind.
So all that said, what can we expect?
After a cold start to the morning, temperatures will climb to a high near freezing this afternoon with a light southerly wind. Temperatures will dip back down into the minus teens tonight, the the warmer air mass begins building in this weekend.
Temperatures will climb to a high a few degrees above freezing on Saturday and Sunday with light southerly winds continuing. Overnight lows will be much warmer, just dipping below freezing overnight on both nights. Conditions will likely be sunny, but particularly beginning Saturday night there may be a chance of seeing widespread fog or low cloud develop. If it does, it could persist through Sunday and into the start of next week.
The snowpack will likely begin to melt at a faster rate as dew point values climb above freezing on the weekend.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will start off with a very warm air mass moving over the region, with the large question mark of how the near-surface layer will interact with the snowpack. Continued southerly winds will likely serve to reinforce the low-level inversion, but the sheer magnitude of the warm air will likely result in either (a) temperatures climbing towards 10 °C or even warmer in any areas with an eroded snow pack, or (b) widespread development of low cloud that results in near-surface temperatures again only a few degrees above freezing.
It’s simply too early to know exactly how that will go at this point, but we’ll be keeping an eye on things through the weekend.
One thing for sure is that substantial amounts of snow will melt next week, both in southern Manitoba as well as North Dakota. The water may appear relatively quickly, so we encourage anybody in areas that may need to be concerned about flooding to keep a close eye on updated flood conditions and forecasts. Moderate to major flooding is possible along parts of the Red River in North Dakota and Manitoba. Depending on the rate of snowpack melt in Manitoba, overland flooding may also be an issue beginning next week.
Fortunately, there is little risk for any notable precipitation across southern Manitoba over the coming week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -4 °C.
