Category: Forecasts

Spring Storm to be Followed by Much Warmer Weather

Brad 2 Comments

A Colorado Low is on the way to Southern Manitoba and will bring snow and blowing snow to the region beginning Tuesday night. This storm will exit the region on Thursday, and after a couple cool days much warmer spring weather will move into the province.

Weather alert map valid 0827Z Tuesday April 4, 2023
Winter storm warnings are out across southern Manitoba (red on the Canadian side of the border) with blizzard warnings across much of the Northern Plains of the United States (red south of the international border) for a potent spring storm moving into the region. Image valid at 8:30 AM Tuesday March 4, 2023.

A Colorado Low is organizing south of the border that will bring a blast of winter weather to parts of southern Manitoba. It has already begun to spread a band of snow through South Dakota that will lift north-northeast through the day today.

In Southern Manitoba, the snow will approach the southern border by evening, then spread into the province overnight. Light snow will fall across southwest Manitoba, with heavier snow pushing into the Red River Valley and southeastern corner of the province. The Trans-Canada Highway corridor in the RRV will likely receive 5–10 cm of snow by Wednesday morning with higher amounts of 10–20 cm to the south and southeast.

Snow will continue across the Red River Valley and east on Wednesday with another 5 to 10 cm likely in most regions. The snow will finally begin to taper off on Wednesday night. By the time all is said and done, much of southern Manitoba will receive 15 to 25 cm of snow; amounts will drop off quickly west and north of a line running roughly from Pilot Mound to Berens River. The heaviest amounts could reach into the 30 to 40 cm range with the highest risk for that much snow focused in two locations: Sprague and the southwest Red River Valley, particularly in the areas closer to the western escarpment.

RDPS Total Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 12Z Thursday April 6, 2023
Much of southern Manitoba will see notable snowfall accumulation as the region is clipped by a Colorado Low Tuesday night through Wednesday.

In addition to the snow, moderate northwesterly winds will develop on Wednesday, bringing areas of blowing snow to the Red River Valley. In combination with the moderate falling snow, expect poor travel conditions across the region, including southward into the United States, Tuesday night through Thursday.

Please refer to the Meteorological Service of Canada for the latest weather alerts for Manitoba.

Temperatures will run seasonably cool through the storm with highs in the -5 to 0 °C range over the next few days. Lows will generally sit in the -5 to -10 °C range, except for Thursday night where clear skies will combine with the fresh snow to send lows into the mid-minus teens.

Long Range Outlook

Probably just as notable as all the snow coming over the next couple days will be the forecast for the weekend. As the Colorado Low pushes northwards, it will dislodge the Polar Vortex and send it further north, finally loosening its influence over the eastern Prairies. A more zonal flow aloft will develop over the region, and much warmer Pacific air will begin to sweep across the Prairies this weekend.

The extensive snow pack over the region will limit daytime highs into the low to mid-single digits. If the ground were completely bare and skies were sunny, daytime highs in the mid-teens could be possible Sunday into Monday; alas. But in addition to temperatures climbing above freezing, this push of warm air will also likely send dew point values above 0 °C as well.

Dew point values rising above freezing greatly enhance how quickly snow can melt, and although the warmer weather will be welcome, it may result in a lot of melting from Saturday through Wednesday. Given the pre-existing concern in Manitoba’s flood forecast, this could result in a higher flood risk for some areas. Be sure to watch for updated Manitoba Flood Forecasts and Reports if you are concerned that you may be impacted by a quick melt.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -4 °C.

Warmer Weather Returns, but Unsettled Conditions Ahead

Brad 4 Comments

Winnipeg will finally see temperatures returning towards seasonal values, but after a couple more nice days the weather will turn more unsettled.

RDPS Precipitation Type & Intensity Forecast valid 00Z Monday March 3, 2023
Southern Manitoba will see more snow on Sunday as a compact but intense low pressure system moves through.

It will be seasonably cool in Winnipeg over the next couple days as daytime highs climb to around the freezing mark under sunny skies. A broad area of high pressure over the province will keep the main weather track to the south, leaving cool but pleasant conditions across southern Manitoba.

Overnight lows will be cool tonight as clear skies combine with the widespread snowpack still in place over the region. Most areas will see temperatures dip down  into the -15 to -20 °C by early Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be very different on Saturday night as cloud cover associated with an approaching warm front moves in. Most areas will see temperatures stay steady in the 0 to -5 °C range.

On Sunday, a low pressure system will track across southern Manitoba, bringing mainly snow to the region, though a wintery mix may be possible in some parts of southern Manitoba. Accumulations are tricky to forecast at this point; this system will be compact and relatively energetic, likely with some convective elements embedded within it. On the cold side of this system’s fronts, snowfall amounts of 5–10 cm are possible, perhaps even higher if this system has enough instability. On the warm side, temperatures could end up climbing a degree or two above freezing, and melting will impact the accumulations.

All that means that what any one place sees on Sunday will depend significantly on the exact track of the system and how intense the low ends up being. Almost certainly many places will see poor conditions on Sunday with some accumulation of snow and possibly rain, but we’ll need to wait a bit longer to see exactly how this system shapes up to know exactly what it will bring.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will settle down for a couple days to start next week, though a fair amount of cloud will linger in the region. Temperatures will again stay seasonably cool with light northerly winds.

The next disturbance that could impact our region is a potent Colorado Low expected to eject northeastwards mid-week. There’s a significant amount of uncertainty as to how far north this system will push, but there is a chance that southern Manitoba will be grazed by the northwestern flank of the system. This could bring light to moderate snow into the province along with cool temperatures and moderate to strong northerly winds possibly beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday.

We’ll be keeping an eye on this system as it develops and have an update in next week’s forecast.

Otherwise, it’s reasonable to expect seasonally cool temperatures as the snow pack remains over the region, with cooler lows on clear nights. We should begin to see a more sustained warmup after next week as heading into April the sun begins to get noticeably stronger and warmer conditions continue to push northwards through the United States.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

Temperatures Gradually Easing Back Towards the Freezing Mark

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Below-seasonal temperatures will continue in Winnipeg this week as temperatures gradually ease back towards the 0 °C mark. The cool conditions and strengthening sun will help flood conditions a bit by gradually evaporating water from the snow pack over the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday March 30, 2023
Temperatures will begin a push back towards seasonal values later this week.

The coldest night of the week is now behind us, and the Arctic high responsible for it is gradually shifting off to the southeast. Temperatures will remain cool today with highs once again near -10 °C and lows dipping back to around the -20 °C mark tonight. At least we’ll see plenty of sunshine!

After that, a gradual warm-up will begin as the Polar Vortex begins to weaken over Hudson Bay. This won’t mean a huge warmup for us though, because rather than shifting back into the High Arctic, the Polar Vortex will still stay relatively far south and keep a northwesterly flow over the region. Daytime highs will jump back into the -5 to 0 °C range mid-week with overnight lows in the -10 to -15 °C range.

The region will see some cloud on Thursday as a low pressure system drops out of the Northwest Territories into central Manitoba. Any snow will likely remain well to the north of Winnipeg, perhaps not even moving out of central Manitoba. More sun should return to the region on Friday, but some cloud might work its way into the region as a low passes by to the south of the province.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will finally reach freezing, with highs of above zero even possible. A system passing through the region on Sunday will bring some more cloud to the region along with a chance of snow.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -7 °C.

Relatively Pleasant Spring Weather Ahead

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It will be relatively pleasant spring conditions in the Winnipeg area over the next few days as seasonably cool temperatures combine with a mix of sunshine and flurries.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday March 26, 2023
An Arctic cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba to end the weekend, bringing colder weather to start next week.

While the seasonal daytime high for the region has finally climbed above the freezing mark, temperatures in Winnipeg will run just a tad on the cool side over the coming days. Highs will climb very close to freezing today and tomorrow, with the more snow-free urban parts of the city possibly reaching the seasonal high. Overnight lows will dip into the -5 to -10 °C range tonight.

A cold front will swing through the region on Saturday, bringing mixed skies to the region with a slight chance of flurries overnight. Winds will pick up out of the north into the 20–30 km/h range and then ease with the flurries overnight. Overnight lows will dip into the -15 to -20 °C range behind the front.

Temperatures will cool off a bit for Sunday with highs dipping back towards the -5 °C mark. There will be a bit more sun, which means again that some areas will likely see temperatures climbing closer to the freezing mark if they have less snow. Another cold front will swing into the region on Sunday night, ushering an Arctic air mass back into the province along with some more flurries.

Long Range Outlook

Seasonably cool weather will start off next week with overnight lows close to -20 °C and daytime highs in the -5 to -10 °C range. It will start to warm up mid-week followed by a chance for some snow in the second half of the work week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -9 °C.