Snowier Weather on the Way

After an extended period of benign weather, it looks like its going to get busier over southern Manitoba. A trio of disturbances are poised to bring snow to the region back-to-back-to-back over the next few days.

GDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 12Z Thursday March 9, 2023
An inverted trough is forecast to develop and linger over the Red River Valley, bringing a prolonged period of light snowfall.

Before it all begins, though, Winnipeg will see a cool but pleasant day. Temperatures will climb close to the -10 °C mark with increasing cloud cover through the day. Winds won’t be too bad, either, persisting out of the northeast near 20 km/h. The region will see cloudy skies tonight with a low in the mid-minus teens.

The action begins tomorrow in what is, at the end of the day, a bit of a complicated setup.

The simplest explanation of what’s going to happen over the next few days is this. The complex evolution of a multi-circulation vortex over western Canada will result in the development of an inverted trough over southern Manitoba on Wednesday. This feature will bring light snow northwards out of the U.S. into the region through the day. The inverted trough will linger over the region while another disturbance passing through the U.S. pushes more moisture northwards on Thursday. As it moves into the trough, more light snow will fall over southern Manitoba into Friday. Following that, a clipper system will develop over southern Alberta on Saturday morning and race eastwards across the southern Prairies. This will bring another organized band of snow — perhaps the heaviest of them all — to the Red River Valley on Sunday.

Between each of these features, lingering flurries or light snow will likely persist across the region.

Snowfall totals by Sunday night will be highly variable across the region with amounts of 10 to 25 cm possible in Winnipeg across the three events. Localized accumulations could end up being higher, though, and of most concern will be areas near the western escarpment of the Red River Valley. The persistent upslope flow on the western side of the inverted trough will enhance snowfall near the escarpment. In those areas, there is the potential for as much as 20 to 40 cm of snow over the next several days.

The snow won’t all fall at once; it will be through multiple events — maybe none of which are particularly bad. But the prolonged nature of the event will mean that it will slowly pile up across the region.

Temperatures will be pleasant, though as daytime highs warm up into the near-seasonal -5 to 0 °C range with overnight lows of -5 to -10 °C.

This is a complex weather setup consisting of multiple events over several days. The forecast may change. One of the biggest uncertainties will be how well the inverted trough is able to establish with a strong Arctic High over the northern Prairies and how much dry air will be ingested from it and diminish snowfall amounts. But be sure to keep an eye on the updated ECCC forecasts and for any alerts that may be issued such as special weather statements or snowfall warnings in the coming days.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal temperatures will continue next week with a bit of sun likely showing up to start the week. Some more flurries look possible mid-week as temperatures nudge warmer.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

Warmer Weather Returns to Winnipeg

Winnipeg has climbed out of the cold snap that brought bitter cold to the region last week and will see seasonably mild weather through the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday March 3, 2023
Warmer weather will spread across southern Manitoba today.

A warm front that passed through overnight has pushed temperatures above -10 °C and it will continue to climb through the day today. A trough moving through this morning will shift winds westerly, helping push the daytime high to near the freezing mark this afternoon. All this will happen under partly cloudy skies.

Temperatures will dip down to around the -10 °C mark tonight with partly cloudy skies. The weekend will continue to bring warmth to the region with a high near the freezing mark on Saturday and a couple degrees cooler on Sunday. Winnipeg will likely see partly cloudy skies on Saturday give way to cloudy conditions for Sunday.

No notable snowfall is expected through the weekend, and lows will continue to sit near the -10 °C mark.

Long Range Outlook

A cold front will push through early Monday, ushering in stronger north winds. This will bring cooler temperatures into the region with highs dipping towards -10 °C by Tuesday. Northerly winds will continue into mid-week with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range and overnight lows in the -15 to -20 °C range.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.

Quiet Seasonal Conditions Ahead

Benign, near-seasonal conditions will stick around for Winnipeg this week. The weekend looks to bring warmer weather back to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday March 2, 2023
A push of warmer air will begin to move into Manitoba later Thursday.

Winnipeg will see quiet weather for most of the week as an Arctic high builds into the region. This one won’t be too bad, only sending daytime highs down to the -10 to -15 °C range for Wednesday. Overnight lows the next couple nights will dip down into the -20 to -25 °C range.

On Thursday, a stiff southerly wind will develop as the high departs the region. Winds will strengthen up to around 40 gusting 60 km/h with the morning chill breaking through the day. Temperatures should climb to a  high in the -5 to -10 °C range.

On Thursday night, a push of much warmer air will continue moving into Manitoba. The cloud cover will thicken up on Thursday night, keeping lows warmer near -10 °C.

On Friday, the warmer temperatures will climb to a high near the freezing mark with a chance of afternoon flurries.

Long Range Outlook

The warmer weather will persist through the weekend with highs in the -5 to 0 °C range. The region will see variable cloudiness with a bit more sun likely on Saturday and a bit more cloud on Sunday. Quiet, mild weather will continue for Monday, then a disturbance moving into the region could bring a chance for some light snow later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

Arctic Blast Brings Bitterly Cold February Temperatures

The Polar Vortex has dropped southwards out of the High Arctic, once again bringing a surge of bitterly cold temperatures to the Canadian Prairies.

The Polar Vortex has dropped southwards out of the High Arctic, once again bringing a surge of bitterly cold temperatures to the Canadian Prairies.

Temperatures falling into the minus 30s on Wednesday night will combine with light winds to produce wind chill values of -40 or colder across many parts of the southern Prairies on Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will plummet well below seasonal values in Winnipeg this week as cold air from the Polar Vortex spills into the region. Daytime highs will sit several degrees below the seasonal overnight lows through the rest of the work week. A high near -20 °C today will fall into the mid-minus 20s on Wednesday, then gradually recover back towards -20 °C again through Thursday and Friday.

This cold air will be represented at the surface by a potent Arctic High that extends from Yukon Territory southeastwards into the Prairies before turning east through NW Ontario. This feature will also send overnight lows tanking, dipping into the -25 to -30 °C range most nights, with a chance for a couple lows below -30. 

The bitterly cold temperatures combined with light winds will likely result in extreme cold warnings at times over the coming days.

That cold will bring plenty of sunshine to the region. The one exception will be on Thursday when a passing low in the United States spreads some cloud across the region. The cold air over southern Manitoba should keep any snow south of the border, though. The sun will return on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

Fortunately, the batter cold won’t likely stick around for very long. By the weekend, a series of potent low pressure systems moving through the Atlantic will help dislodge the Polar Vortex and pull it eastwards. This will allow a more westerly flow to develop over the Prairies and bring warmer weather back to the region.

This will bring mixed skies to the region as temperatures gradually warm with near-seasonal temperatures back in the region by Sunday.

Next week will bring variable cloudiness to the city with a couple chances of some light snow and mild temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -17 °C.