Category: Forecasts

Mild Winter Weather Continues for a Few More Days

Brad Leave a comment

Despite a vigorous cold front sweeping through the region yesterday, seasonably mild weather will persist the rest of the work week. But get ready, it looks like a blast of Arctic air is on the horizon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Thursday January 26, 2023
Colder weather will gradually build into northern Manitoba this week.

Winnipeg will continue to see mixed to cloudy skies this week in the wake of yesterday’s cold front that borough some light snow to the region through the day. Through the rest of the work week, a stalled front will stretch from northern Saskatchewan to southeastern Manitoba, with a few weak disturbances rippling along it. Not only will this maintain the cloud, it will bring the a good chance for occasional bouts of light snow through the week.

Some light accumulations of snow are most likely this morning, then a few flurries might slide across the Red River Valley through Wednesday. A more organized system will bring accumulating snow to much of southern Manitoba sometime Thursday afternoon through the night. This final system could bring as much as 4 to 8 cm of snow to some areas by Friday morning.

Over these days, daytime highs will generally sit in -5 to -10 °C range expect for Wednesday which will likely see a high slightly cooler than -10 °C. Overnight lows will vary quite a bit depending on how much cloud sticks around, but most will settle in the -15 to -20 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Friday’s passing low will bring about a fairly substantial pattern change. This system will be bolstered by a cross-polar surge of Arctic air that pushes the Polar Vortex southwards into Canada’s eastern Arctic region. This will allow much colder air to spill southwards into the Prairies, bringing some bitter cold that the region hasn’t seen since  shortly before Christmas last year.

Forecasts show a strong cold front surging southwards through southern Manitoba on Friday night. Temperatures will plummet behind it with Winnipeg’s overnight low dropping into the low minus 20s. This weekend, daytime highs will struggle to reach the -20 to -25 °C range with overnight lows likely dipping to -30 °C.

Some models show a low pressure system passing through the region on Sunday night; if this happens, stronger northerly winds on Monday morning will likely result in blowing snow across the region.

With the surge of much colder conditions, wind chill values will dip towards the -40 mark. There’s a good chance that some extreme cold warnings will spread from Northern Manitoba into southern Manitoba through the weekend.

It’s been exceptionally mild winter so far and it was inevitable that we’d get some very cold temperatures before the season was up. Enjoy the relative warmth this week, and prepare to bundle up for the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

More Cloudy and Mild Weather

Brad Leave a comment

At this point, there’s not much to say that hasn’t been said multiple times before: the cloudy and seasonably mild weather will continue this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday January 19, 2023
Typical winter cold will continue to be missing in action across the Prairies this week.

With the truly cold Arctic air locked up over the High Arctic and Russia, mild weather persists across the Canadian Prairies. Here in Manitoba, pleasant January temperatures will continue this week with highs in the -5 to -10 °C range. Today will be on the colder side of that range, then days will gradually warm through the week. Overnight lows will vary, but generally sit in the -10 to -15 °C range, though if any clear skies manage to form in the nights ahead, lows could dip a bit colder than that.

Otherwise, the weather will be fairly benign this week. A ridge building into the province will bring northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h to the region today. Winds will ease tonight, then stay light for much of the week ahead. Skies will stay mostly cloudy this week, though an odd clear patch is possible, particularly mid-week.

Don’t expect any notable snow this week, just the chance for some occasional light non-accumulating snow. Pretty much just more of the same: mild, cloudy, and benign weather.

Long Range Outlook

Looking further ahead, warm weather will continue into the weekend with a bit of snow possible on Sunday. After that, a cold front will push through the region and send temperatures back to near-seasonal values. By the middle of next week, daytime highs will likely sit in the -10 to -15 °C with overnight lows dipping towards -20 °C.

Beyond that, it’s beginning to look like the end of January will bring a shift into a colder pattern as the Polar Vortex begins slumping southwards through Canada. Daytime highs could continue to slip into the mid-minus 20s with overnight lows back towards -30 °C into the final days of January.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Mild Weekend Ahead for Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

A push of Pacific warmth will bring cloudy and mild conditions to Winnipeg this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday January 15, 2023
A passing low pressure system will bring very mild temperatures to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley on Sunday.

A slow-moving low pressure system will push warmer air across the Prairies over the next few days. This warmer air will bring with it plenty of cloud cover — it definitely seems like we need to enjoy those fleeting moments of sun while we have them — as daytime highs rise towards the freezing mark.

Some morning sun today will give way to cloudier skies with a high in the -5 to -10 °C range. The cool morning temperatures in the -15 to -20 °C range will result in windy conditions this afternoon as the warmer air pushes in. Southerly winds will increase to around 40 gusting 60 km/h later this morning. Winds will ease later this afternoon, then the city will head to a low near -10 °C under cloudy skies.

Expect mainly cloudy conditions through the weekend with southeasterly winds near 20 km/h on Saturday and lighter on Sunday. Daytime highs will climb into the -5 to 0 °C range for both Saturday and Sunday as a low pressure system pushes into Saskatchewan. Overnight lows will also be quite mild near -5 °C. While the occasional few flakes are possible, any notable snow will stay north and west of Winnipeg.

The most organized area of snow will develop over Saskatchewan on Saturday evening and spread through WestMan and the northern Interlake on Saturday night. A swath of 5 to 10 cm is likely, with localized higher amounts possible as it moves into central Manitoba. The Red River Valley will stay mainly unaffected by this system.

Long Range Outlook

A few flurries will be possible on Monday as a cold front sweeps through the Red River Valley behind the passing low. Temperatures will begin to cool, with near-seasonal values returning for Tuesday. After that, though, milder air will again work its way into the region with daytime highs climbing back towards -5 °C by the end of the week.

For those missing the sun, the week ahead will continue to disappoint. Mainly cloudy conditions will persist through next week, though a few sunny breaks will be more likely on Tuesday.

While everyone’s tastes vary, the cloud cover is generally the trade-off needed for warmth at this time of year. Personally, I’ll take the trade-off of cloud for warmth as it makes getting outside and doing things so much more pleasant. But pretty soon even I’ll be willing to take the trade-off of a few -20 °C days for some blazing sunshine.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.

More of the Same Ahead: Cloudy and Mild Weather

Brad Leave a comment

Sounding like a broken record, the days ahead shows little change with plenty of cloud and mild conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday January 13, 2023
Breezy southerly winds will develop across the Red River Valley on Friday as a push of very mild winter air approaches the region.

An upper ridge will rebound again over western Canada in the coming days, helping keep the colder Arctic air locked up north.

As a result, the region will continue to see seasonably mild weather. Daytime highs will sit in the -5 to -10 °C range through the rest of the work week. A weak disturbance will move through tonight will bring a chance for some light snow to the region, but it won’t leave much more than a dusting of snow across the Red River Valley.

A bit of cooler air will slump in behind this system on Thursday, sending highs towards the lower end of the range mentioned above. On the upside, that might also bring some sunny breaks to Winnipeg as well.

Winds will be a bit of a mixed bag over the coming days. Winnipeg will see southerly winds near 30 km/h today that will ease later this afternoon. They will then shift to northwest winds for Wednesday around 20 km/h and ease on Thursday. Friday could be a bit of breezy day as a more organized push of wamer air works towards the region. Much of the Red River Valley will likely see southerly winds of 40 to 50 km/h develop in the morning. Those winds will last through the day and then ease overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Skies will cloud back over for the weekend as a push of milder air moves into the region. Daytime highs will climb towards 0 °C by Sunday with a chance of some snow.

The snow will likely fall mainly north of Winnipeg from WestMan across the Interlake. There could be close to 10 cm of snow for some places by Sunday evening. We’ll keep an eye on this system as the week progresses. The southern edge of the snow amounts drop-off sharply, and more southerly track could mean poor travel conditions along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor on Sunday.

Until then, though, enjoy the mild conditions! If you’re looking for something to do to get out and take advantage of the winter warmth, The Forks Skating Trail is open on the Assiniboine all the way to the Osborne Bridge and on the Red River to Queen Elizabeth way!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.