Category: Forecasts

Colorado Low Brings Mild Temperatures and Snow to Southern Manitoba

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A Colorado Low moving into the American Mid-West will spread snow northwards into southern Manitoba this week with significant amounts possible.

RDPS Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) Forecast valid 06Z Tuesday December 13 through 12Z Friday December 16, 2022. Image depicts heavy snowfall over southern Manitoba in excess of 20 cm.
Snowfall accumulations will climb to significant amounts as a prolonged snowfall event begins on Tuesday night and persists until Friday. These accumulations are from one weather model and should be taken more as a signal for snowfall accumulations of 15 to 30 cm rather than a precise forecast.

The weather driver over the next few days will be a Colorado Low passing to the south. It will eject northwards into Nebraska today, spreading heavy snow across the Dakotas. Some light snow will persist across southwest Manitoba today, but the organized, heavier snow will begin to breach the international border later in the day. Temperatures will be mild through the Red River Valley with daytime highs near the freezing mark and easterly winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

Organized snow will lift north through the Red River Valley overnight and persist into Wednesday as moisture travels northwards along a stalled inverted trough.. The snow will likely arrive in waves through the day on Wednesday with highly variable accumulations across the Red River Valley. The heaviest snow in the region will fall along the western escarpment where easterly winds blowing up the slope will result in more intense snowfall rates. Snowfall accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 cm up to as much as 20 to 30 cm will be possible by Thursday morning.

What happens after that is a bit of an interesting interaction with a renewed shot of moisture into the Colorado Low on Thursday, the still-stalled inverted trough hanging back from the system, and a cold front advancing towards the region. There is reasonable confidence that another wave of moderate to heavy snow will push into southern Manitoba from the east later on Thursday. This band of snow will persist through Thursday night, gradually pushing towards the Saskatchewan border. This system could bring another 10 to 20 cm of snow to the Red River Valley by Friday morning, including for Winnipeg.

Daytime highs will hover near freezing through Wednesday, then gradually drop through the day Thursday and Friday to around -5 °C. So while temperatures will be pleasant, most of the region is poised to receive anywhere from “some” to “a lot” of snow over the next few days.

Long Range Outlook

Periods of light snow will likely linger into the weekend, but accumulations will be much less. Daytime highs will fall through the weekend as colder air filters in behind this whole disturbance. While Saturday will be pleasant with a high near -8 °C, by Sunday temperatures will fall into the minus mid-teens and barely recover. 

Even colder weather will start next week, but a bit of moderation will occur as another disturbance brings snow to the region on Tuesday into Wednesday.pi…

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

#awm #forecast_post

Brief Blast of Bitterly Cold Temperatures Arrives

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A surge of very cold Arctic air is pushing through Manitoba, but it will be short-lived with a return to seasonal temperatures just around the corner.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday December 7, 2022
Bitterly cold temperatures will settle over southern Manitoba overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures form southeastern Saskatchewan across southern Manitoba will drop into the -30 to -40 °C range.

The Polar Vortex has shifted from the High Arctic southwards into Hudson Bay, sending a surge of very cold Arctic air into the Prairies. A weak disturbance will round the base of the Polar Vortex today, spawning a weak low in North Dakota. This low will track eastwards with an inverted trough that runs northwards into Manitoba.

This system will spread cloud and light snow across southern Manitoba today. Most areas will see 1 to 3 cm of snow by the time it tapers off this evening. It will also be cold, with temperatures struggling to rebound into the -15 to -20 °C range, bolstered only by cloud cover.

Skies will clear out tonight as an Arctic high barrels into the province. With clear skies, temperatures will plummet tonight. Winnipeg will see a low in the -30 to -35 °C early Wednesday morning. Fortunately winds will be light, so wind chill won’t be a major factor, inasmuch as it matters when its already so cold.

With the high in place, Wednesday will be clear and cold. Temperatures will recover to around -20 °C by late in the afternoon with increasing southerly winds. Wind chill values will sit in the -30 to -35 range by the evening.

Fortunately, those breezy southerlies are a sign of warmer weather beginning to work its way into the region. Temperatures will rise towards the mid-minus teens on Wednesday nights, the continue climbing towards -10 °C on Thursday.

There will be a bit of cloud around on Wednesday night, but Thursday should bring mainly sunny skies. 

Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-minus teens on Thursday night with increasing cloudiness.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday, reaching a high close to -5 °C with mostly cloudy skies. Some light snow is likely on Friday night, but accumulations will be minimal.

That will mark the transition to a much cloudier, but warmer pattern. The region will see plenty of cloud cover through the weekend and into next week, but daytime highs will climb close to the freezing mark.

Some light snow will be possible on several days, beginning Sunday through Tuesday, with a gradual return to near-seasonal temperatures during that period.

So, the forecast is the ol’ Winnipeg dilemma: bone-chilling cold and plenty of sun, or pleasant winter warmth with socked in cloud cover. Hopefully there’s a little bit to like in the forecast for everyone.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -17 °C.

Unpleasant Blast of Winter Weather Arrives

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Strong northwest winds will send temperatures plummeting in Winnipeg today.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday December 3, 2022
A very cold air mass will move over the entire Prairies today with temperatures ranging from -20 to -35 °C across the region by Saturday morning.

A disturbance that brought snow to parts of western Manitoba will bring about quite a pattern chance for Winnipeg today. As the system tracks off to the east, moderate to strong northwest winds will develop and draw colder Arctic air into the region.

In Winnipeg, winds will increase to around 40 gusting 60 km/h midday, while to the west and south of the city the winds will be stronger, reaching as high as 50 gusting 70 km/h. These winds will send temperatures falling from around -11 °C this morning to around -18 °C by the evening. Wind chill values will become an issue later in the day, falling into the -30s by late afternoon.

The winds will also produce blowing snow through the Red River Valley, but the worst hit area will likely be the Trans-Canada Highway corridor between Elie and Portage la Prairie. If travelling through that area today, be prepared for the potential for road closures due to poor driving conditions this afternoon.

The wind will ease this evening with clearing skies. Temperatures will dip to a low around -23 °C.

A ridge of high pressure will move across the region on Saturday, keeping skies clear and temperatures cold. Winnipeg will see temperatures climb to a high near -15 °C with a southwest wind near 20 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a low near -20 °C tonight with increasing cloud towards Sunday morning.

On Sunday, a low pressure system will move through the region, dropping from northern Saskatchewan into the Interlake. It will bring warmer temperatures back to the region with highs into the -5 to -10 °C range along with some light snow. The north winds will return on Sunday night, sending temperatures downwards through the day on Monday.

Long Range Outlook

Arctic air returns early next week, bringing some of the coldest temperatures Winnipeg’s seen so far this winter. Temperatures will likely drop towards the -20 °C mark on Monday, then continue into the mid-minus twenties on Monday night. Tuesday could be the first day of the season with a daytime high colder than -20 °C, but temperatures then look to gradually moderate through the remainder of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

#awm #forecast_post #awm_windy #awm_blowing_snow

A Few Flurries Usher in Cooler Weather

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The Winnipeg area will see mixed skies with some occasional light snow over the coming days as cooler weather slumps into the region.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday November 30, 2022
Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will begin to usher in a colder air mass later today.

Cooler temperatures will filter southwards into Manitoba this week behind a departing low pressure system. This low will track from the Interlake eastwards into Ontario today with strengthening northerly winds developing in its wake. In Winnipeg, northwest winds will strengthen up to 40 gusting 60 km/h by the evening as skies cloud over. Once the cloud moves in, flurries will be likely across the region, and there may be some localized blowing snow in the area by evening. Temperatures will reach a high near -3 °C today, then dip down below -10 °C overnight tonight.

On Wednesday, the wind and flurries will taper off through the day, but the clouds might not break up until later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler with a high near -9 °C. With some clear breaks overnight, temperatures will fall into the mid-minus teens for a low overnight.

On Thursday, another low pressure system will begin approaching from the west, spreading more cloud cover into the region. Winds will pick up out of the south to around 30 km/h with highs a tad warmer, closer to -7 °C or so. With the thickening cloud cover, temperatures will stay a bit warmer on Thursday night, only dipping to around -10 °C. This approaching low will spread snow into southern Manitoba with the first flakes likely falling by early Friday morning.

Long Range Outlook

Snow will taper off later Friday with northerly winds picking up through the day. The region could see anywhere from 2–5 cm of snow, and temperatures will fall into the minus teens by the end of the day.

The cloud cover will break up on Friday night as a colder air mass moves into the region. Beginning on the weekend, daytime highs will dip below -10 °C while overnight lows head toward the -20s, bringing the first real shot of winter cold to southern Manitoba. While there will be some ups and downs, temperatures look like they’ll continue to drop next week with daytime highs possibly falling into the low minus teens by midweek.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.