Category: Forecasts

Mild Weather Continues Into the Weekend

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Beautiful late-November weather will continue in Winnipeg for a few more days with daytime highs climbing above freezing.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday November 25, 2022
The southern Prairies will see very mild daytime highs on Friday, though existing snow pack could limit some of the warmest temperatures if the winds can’t mix out all of the cool air near the snow-covered surface.

An upper ridge over the Prairies continues to bring seasonably mild temperatures to the region. Across southern Manitoba, daytime highs climbed above freezing yesterday and will stay there for another couple days yet. With Pacific air continuing to wash over the Prairies, daytime highs in Winnipeg will climb above 0 °C into the low single digits both today and tomorrow.

The wind strengthen out of south-southwest today to around 30 km/h and then ease tonight. A weak cold front will go through, bringing some cloud overnight, and then the winds will pick up out of the northwest Saturday into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The pattern across the Prairies will begin to change on Sunday as the upper ridge collapses and a low pressure system begins to drop southeastwards across the Prairies. As it approaches, the wind will pick back up out of the southeast through the Red River Valley, but the warmer air will have slumped a bit south and more cloud will build into the region. Temperatures climb to a high near freezing, but with cloud building through the day and breezy southeasterlies, it will feel much cooler than the prior days.

As the low pushes into the region on Sunday night, light snow will blossom across the region.

Long Range Outlook

A bit of a complex setup will develop next week as energy collapses southwards from the low over southern Manitoba to a developing Colorado Low. While the Colorado Low will likely impact Ontario, the interaction of these two systems could support some periods of light snow across the region for a couple days.

By the middle of next week, cooler temperatures will begin slumping into the Prairies, sending daytime highs down below -10 °C with overnight lows dipping into the low teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

Mild Week Ahead for Winnipeg

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A westerly flow aloft will bring seasonably mild temperatures to Winnipeg this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday November 24, 2022
Mild temperatures will move into southern Manitoba this week with daytime highs climbing to near or above freezing.

The Red River Valley will get a late-November treat of mild temperatures this week as daytime highs climb back above freezing. A series of low pressure systems tracking along the northern borders of the Prairie provinces will help shunt the Polar Vortex back into the High Arctic. As it retreats, that will allow for a sustained flow of milder Pacific air to spill across the Rockies and into the Prairies.

As a result, the region will see more sun than has been around in a while with mild temperatures. Daytime highs will sit around the freezing mark or just a bit warmer with lows warming from the -5 to -10 °C range mid-week to close to freezing by the end of the week.

There won’t be much chance of snow this week; the only notable possibility looks to be on Wednesday night as a weak cold front moves through. It may bring a brief band of snow through the region with it, but accumulations look like they’d be low.

Long Range Outlook

The stretch of warmer weather will come to an end this weekend as a series of weak disturbances begin to move through, bringing cloud and light snow. Each successive impulse will gradually bring temperatures back to near-seasonal values to start next week and into seasonably cool conditions later next week.

With the cooling trend will come more cloud cover and plenty of chances for light snow.

So for now, enjoy the beautiful late-November week ahead!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

Winter Settles Over The Red River Valley

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With the heavy snow across the region over the past 24 hours, winter has finally arrived to the Winnipeg area. Though no more snow is in the forecast, cool weather will stick around for the foreseeable future.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 09Z Sunday November 13, 2022
Much cooler weather will settle over the eastern Prairies for the weekend as an Arctic high sits over the region.

There’s a blanket of white over Winnipeg today thanks to a good 10 to 15 cm of snow that fell across the city late yesterday into the night. We had talked about the potential for more snow in our last forecast, and as we expressed some concern, the system did end up shifting a bit further north — about 50 to 75 km further — than many forecast models had predicted. That said, Winnipeg ended up getting off relatively easy; to the south and east of the city, anywhere from 15 to 25 cm fell. As a result, a marked shift in temperatures will now settle over the region as, even on sunny days, the snow reflects much of the incoming heat back where it came from.

The weather over the next few days will be fairly benign, much of anything quashed by a large Arctic ridge settling over the province. In Winnipeg, this will result in diminishing winds and seasonably cool temperatures. The city will see a high around the -5 °C mark over the next several days with lows dipping down into the mid-minus teens at night. The region will see a mix of sun and cloud over the coming days, though depending on how the air mass interacts with the still-open lakes, some cloudier periods will also be possible. If skies manage to stay clear through some of the upcoming nights, with the ground now snow-covered, overnight lows could fall closer to -20 °C through the Red River Valley.

Long Range Outlook

The cool but relatively benign weather will continue into next week, with the next notable weather system expected mid-week. The passing low could bring some light snow to the region, followed by a push of cooler temperatures into the following weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -9 °C.

Cooler Weather Ahead With A Chance of Snow

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Winnipeg’s temperatures will continue to slide over the next week as multiple disturbances move through the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday November 9, 2022
Tuesday afternoon will likely be the last time Winnipeg sees above-freezing temperatures for…a while.

More snow is on the way today, but it will fall to the west and north of Winnipeg. Although Winnipeg got a bit of snow overnight, the main bulk of the snow pushed into western Manitoba overnight. It will continue to the northeast today, while here in the Red River Valley temperatures warm slightly under cloudy skies.

Winnipeg will see a high up to around the 5 °C mark this afternoon with easing southeasterly winds. Skies will stay cloudy through the day. A trough will move through this afternoon, followed by a cold front in the evening. The trough will bring a chance of showers as it moves through this afternoon. Cloudy skies will continue this evening with the passage of the cold front. It doesn’t look like any snow will fall with that frontal passage.

Heading into the rest of the week, Winnipeg will find itself on the edges of passing systems. Disturbances will push past the area on Wednesday afternoon and later on Thursday, but both will mainly affect areas southeast of Winnipeg. Wednesday’s system will bring a chance for some afternoon flurries, but Thursday’s could bring more notable snowfall. Right now, it appears that Winnipeg will only be grazed by the system with 2—5 cm accumulation by Friday morning. Amounts will increase southeast of the city, with 15 to 25 cm likely over the southeast corner of the province. Coupled with strengthening north winds, travel conditions to the south and east will likely deteriorate Thursday night into Friday with accumulating snow and blowing snow.

Snowfall accumulations will be sensitive to the track of this system. Should it push northwest a little bit, Winnipeg may be seeing a more significant snowfall event to end the week.

Through this whole time, cooler and cooler temperatures will be pushing into Winnipeg. Today’s above-freezing high will give way to a high near 0 °C on Wednesday that then drops towards -5 °C for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will also drop below -10 °C by the end of the week.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, a strong northwesterly flow will develop aloft, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards across the Prairies. This will lead to a prolonged period of below-normal temperatures with highs likely in the mid-minus single digits and overnight lows near or below -10 °C. The region should see a bit of sun through the weekend, but cloudier conditions will return next week. Multiple disturbances will slump southwards in the flow, bringing several chances for snow next week. In addition, the colder air moving into the region will combine with the organizing northwest winds and will likely produce some lake-effect snow in the lee of the Manitoba Lakes next week.

It’s been a nice run, but it does indeed look like the region is finally on its decent out of fall into winter. Get those long johns and snow pants ready!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -7 °C.