Category: Forecasts

Warm Week Ahead with an Unsettled End

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Unseasonably warm weather will settle in over Southern Manitoba over the next few days with daytime highs soaring 7–8°C above the normal 12°C for this time of year. Week’s end will bring unsettled weather into the province as a low pressure system lifts northwards out of the Central Plains of the United States.

Wednesday

19°C / 7°C
Mainly sunny with a few cloudy periods in the afternoon.
Thursday

19°C / 12°C
Increasing cloud through the day. Chance of showers in the evening.
Friday

18°C / 8°C
Cloudy. A few showers likely.

Today & Tomorrow

We’ll see a very pleasant day today with a high around 20°C and bright sunny skies light winds out of the southwest. We may see a little afternoon cloud, but nothing too significant. Tonight will be a fairly seasonable night with mostly clear skies and a low near 7°C.

Tomorrow will start off mostly sunny, but we’ll see some scattered cloud through the day and by late in the day we’ll start to see more organized cloud cover starting to push into the Red River Valley from North Dakota. There will be a slight chance of a shower through the evening hours as a warm front lifts north through the Red River Valley & Interlake regions but no significant accumulations are expected in our region.

An Unsettled Friday

Friday will most likely end up a somewhat unsettled day as a low pressure system tracks through the Red River Valley. This disturbance will bring a fair amount of rain to Western Manitoba; at this point it looks like close to 40–50mm will fall near the Saskatchewan border. Here in the Red River Valley rainfall will be lighter and more disorganized in nature. We’ll see a decent chance of some light scattered showers through the Red River Valley through the day under cloudy skies. The temperature should climb to around 18°C as we sit just on the warm side of the main frontal boundary of this system.

12hr. QPF valid Fri. 12Z - Sat 00Z w/Frontal Analysis

Forecast rainfall through the daytime on Friday from the GDPS. Rainfall accumulation 12Z – 00Z; low position & fronts valid for Saturday 00Z.

We’ll likely see the bulk of the rain we receive on Friday night and Saturday as we move onto the back-side of the system and a large area of wrap-around precipitation hangs back over the Red River Valley. At the moment, models are forecasting total accumulations around Winnipeg to be anywhere from 5–15mm by the end of Saturday. Until then, we have a couple nice days ahead so get out there and enjoy them!

Warm Start to the Week

Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out seasonably warm, a nice turn-around after a cool end to last week.

The Weather will be Nice in Southern Manitoba on Monday

The Week Ahead

Monday

Mainly Sunny
16°C / 6°C
Tuesday

Mix of Sun and Cloud
20°C / 6°C
Wednesday

Mainly Cloudy
16°C / 7°C

Today will be a nice day in Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid teens under sunny skies. The wind will be light as well, making for all around pleasant conditions.

Tuesday will once again see mild conditions in Southern Manitoba. There may be a bit more cloud compared to Monday, but temperatures are still expected to be warm, with highs in the upper teens or low twenties. Tuesday will be a bit windier than Monday, but even so the wind won’t be a big issue.

Conditions will change little for Wednesday. Temperatures will once again be in the mid teens in Southern Manitoba with light winds. Wednesday will be a cloudier day however, as a weather system to our south spreads some cloud cover over Southern Manitoba.

Long Range

The weather for the late week period is looking a bit interesting. A large low pressure system is currently forecast to move through Southern Manitoba towards the weekend. At this point it appears precipitation from this system will be mostly rain, although some flurries may be possible as it exits the region. More details on this system will be available later in the week.

Uneventful and Cooler End to the Work Week

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A strong low pressure system located to our south-east, in the Northern US Plains, is expected to bring the Dakotas their first snowfall accumulation for the 2013-2014 winter season but will only clip portions of extreme south-east Manitoba.

US Plains low

Low pressure system affecting Northern Plains depicted here for 4PM CDT today. It will keep us cool and cloudy for most of the afternoon/evening.

Friday

Friday

8°C / 1°C
Becoming overcast early on in the day.

Today, temperatures will be slightly on the cool side. The strong system aforementioned will be drawing in cooler air from the north into southern Manitoba. Models are in agreement that rain and snow will stay out of Winnipeg, though there is a slight chance that regions in extreme south-east Manitoba get some showers Friday evening. Winnipeg can expect to see a high near the 8°C mark with increasing cloudiness throughout the day. In the afternoon and evening winds will be stronger 20km/h gusting to 40km/h coming out of the north. It will be a notably chilly day; our high will be some 7-8°C below normal for this time of year. West of the Red River Valley will be even chillier with highs only expected in the mid-single digits. For Friday night, there is a small chance of frost in Winnipeg but areas more at risk lie to the west of the city.

Saturday

Saturday

10°C / -1°C
Mainly sunny.

Saturday looks to be a nicer day, compared to today; mostly sunny skies combined with slightly higher temperatures around 10°C. The only potential downfall looks to be the wind which will still be fairly strong in the afternoon: 20-30km/h from the north before it dies down in the evening. Saturday night will be a chilly one with high pressure in our region, light winds and clear skies for the most part; Winnipeg has a good chance at seeing some frost.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday

13°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny, a few stray clouds.

The weekend looks to end on a good note with mainly sunny conditions under more of a westerly flow. Highs in the low to mid-teens can be expected for southern Manitoba. Winnipeg looks to see a return to seasonal temperatures with a high of around 13°C weaker winds than the past few days.

For the beginning of the next work week temperatures appear to stay near normal as high pressure moves in. As the high pressure system moves east, a return flow will likely bring in some warmer, above normal, temperatures to the Red River Valley by Tuesday.

Cooler Weather Settling In

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After a windy day yesterday, Southern Manitoba will see cooler weather through the remainder of the week as a fairly seasonal air mass sits anchored over the region. While cool, things will remain dry as any showery weather remains locked up in Central Manitoba & the Northern Interlake.

The Next Few Days

Wednesday

16°C / 3°C
Some cloudy periods.
Thursday

16°C / 3°C
Partly cloudy.
Friday

10°C / 2°C
Increasing cloud, cooler.

Today and tomorrow will be essentially carbon copies of each other. Highs will sit around 16°C with overnight lows near 3°C. Winds are expected to be fairly light both today and tomorrow. Both days will have some cloud around; today we’ll see some cloud pushing up from North Dakota through the Red River Valley while tomorrow we’ll see some cloud slumping southwards from the Interlake. While there may be some light shower activity with the cloud pushing southwards from the Interlake, at this point the entirety of it is expected to remain west of the Red River Valley in the Riding Mountain region slumping southwards into SW Manitoba.

Things will cool off a bit on Friday in the Red River Valley as an intensifying low pressure system in South Dakota/Minnesota draws cooler air from the north into the Red River Valley through the day. Any rain this system produces will remain south of the Canada/U.S. border in the Dakotas and Minnesota. We’ll see some cloud push into the Red River Valley through the day thanks to this system. Exactly who will see cloud and who won’t will be tough to call; the cloud will likely have quite a sharp edge thanks to a strong deformation zone. It will be fairly safe to say that places such as Steinbach and areas SE will end up overcast by day’s end while areas west of Winnipeg, such as Portage la Prairie, will likely remain fairly sunny. Here in Winnipeg we’ll likely sit somewhere near the edge of the edge of the cloud by day’s end.

Looking to the Weekend

The weekend looks fairly quiet over much of Southern Manitoba. Benign weather will dominate over SW Manitoba, things should remain fairly calm over the Red River Valley and the SE portion of the province will see a shot of getting some rain.

An area of rain looks to push northwards out of North Dakota and Northern Minnesota as a developing low lifts NE out of Minnesota on Friday night. The area of rain will have a very sharp edge on it’s northwestern flank thanks to the aforementioned strong deformation zone. Most models are keeping all of the rain in the United States, however some higher-resolution long-range and medium-range models are starting to creep the system a little further west and introduce some rain activity into SE Manitoba on Saturday, likely through the Sprague region. At this point, I’d say that the region has just a slight chance of some rain.

The Red River Valley looks to remain completely clear of the rain for this system with mostly clear skies and cool-to-seasonal temperatures.