Category: Forecasts

Fall Chill Eases As Week Continues

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The cool conditions starting the week off will be replaced by warmer weather as an upper ridge moves across the Prairies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday September 29, 2022
Much warmer weather will push eastwards into the Prairies this week as an upper ridge builds over the region.

Winnipeg will start the day off today with a touch of frost courtesy a strong high pressure system sitting over the province. This system will keep skies sunny and temperatures seasonal with highs in the mid-teens this afternoon. Temperatures will dip back down into the low single digits tonight with a light southerly wind developing. Sub-freezing temperatures are unlikely in Winnipeg tonight, but outlying areas could see temperatures touch the freezing mark.

Heading into the rest of the week, the high responsible for the cool weather will shift off into Ontario and an upper ridge will build in behind it. This will bring warmer weather back to southern Manitoba and shift the region into an extended period of seasonably warm conditions.

Mainly sunny conditions will persist through the rest of the week with daytime highs climb into the low 20s and overnight lows in the upper single digits. Wednesday will be more of a transition day, though, with a strong southerly wind up to 50 gusting 70 km/h and a high in the upper teens.

There’s just the slightest chance of a light shower on Wednesday evening, otherwise it will be dry through the rest of the week.

Long Range Outlook

Some cloud is possible later Friday into Saturday, but temperatures should continue to be seasonably mild. Mainly sunny conditions are forecast to return Sunday and continue into much of next week. The forecast shows no notable precipitation in the next 10 days.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Friday Showers Give Way To Seasonal Weekend Temperatures

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A passing low will bring cool weather and scattered showers to the region today. It will be a quick turnaround to nicer weather for the weekend with sun returning and warmer temperatures.

RDPS 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Saturday September 24, 2022
Many places in southern Manitoba will have a good chance of seeing rain showers on Friday.

Today’s main influence on Winnipeg’s weather will be a slow-moving upper low crossing the region. This system brought rain to southwestern Manitoba overnight, but it will weaken as it pushes eastwards. A few showers will be possible through the morning hours as a leading band of rain weakens heading into the Red River Valley. A bit of a cloudy break is likely, then another chance for scattered showers will develop midday as the upper low itself moves over the region.

Most of the rain will be over by the evening, but a lingering chance for some patchy light rain will continue into the night as the system moves into Ontario. Temperatures will dip to around the 10 °C mark overnight.

With the cloud and rain, temperatures will be quite cool with a high in the low teens. Winds will persist out of the southeast around 20 km/h through the day.

On Saturday, a bit of light rain could be lingering in the morning, but the cloud cover should begin to break up later in the day. Skies will clear later in the afternoon with a northwest wind at 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures should climb into the upper teens in the afternoon, then head again to a low near 10 °C under clear skies tonight.

On Sunday, the sun will make a full return with just a few clouds through the day. Temperatures should again climb into the upper teens   with a breezy northwest wind. Temperatures will dip into the upper single digits on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Near or slightly above-seasonal temperatures will continue into the first half of next week. By mid-week, a surge of warmer air will begin pushing across the Prairies. This will bring highs back into the 20s across southern Manitoba with highs in the mid-20s possible by the end of the week. It should stay dry with variable cloudiness through much of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

More Mixed Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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Winnipeg will continue to see a mix of weather this week with near-seasonal temperatures.

RDPS 12-hr Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday September 21, 2022
Some showers will move through southern Manitoba on Tuesday night as cooler air slumps into the region.

Today will be a pleasant late-summer day in Winnipeg with westerly winds picking up to 30 km/h and bringing sunshine back to the area. Temperatures should climb close to the 20 °C mark this afternoon. More cloud will move into the region this evening as a cold front sweeps through. Some more showers are likely tonight as northwest winds usher cooler air into the region, but the most organized precipitation will fall along the western escarpment of the Red River Valley and in the lee of the lakes. In these areas, anywhere from a couple millimetres to potentially over 10 mm is possible. In Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley itself, though, just a few light showers are likely through the night with little accumulation.

Any remaining showers should taper off on Wednesday morning as a high pressure system pushes into the region. The clouds may linger into the afternoon as brisk northwest winds up into the 30 to 40 km/h range continue. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with highs only in the mid-teens. The winds will ease off on Wednesday night as skies clear and temperatures head to an overnight low as cold as +1 or +2 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday September 22, 2022
A high pressure system will bring very cool overnight lows to the region on Wednesday night with temperatures close to freezing by Thursday morning in many places.

The high pressure system will bring mainly sunny skies to the region on Thursday. Winds will be light and highs will again sit in the mid-teens. The high will begin shifting off to the east later in the day. As it exits the area, southerly winds will begin to pick up as more cloud moves into the 

Long Range Outlook

Another disturbance moving into the region on Friday will bring cloud and a good chance of rain. Accumulations across the region may vary significantly; Winnipeg could see 2 to 4 mm with increasing amounts southwards. Some cloud and showers may persist into Saturday as temperatures finally warm back to seasonal values. The sun should make a full return on Sunday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

More Unsettled Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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A continuing series of slow-moving low pressure systems will bring more cloud and showers to southern Manitoba into the weekend.

ECMWF 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Saturday September 17, 2022
A slow moving low will spread intensifying showers across southern Manitoba today. Rainfall totals of up to 20–30 mm could be possible.

More showers will persist across southern Manitoba today as a weak low pressure system slowly lifts into the southeastern corner of the province. Scattered showers will blossom across the region this morning as the lift from this low pushes into the region. Rain will likely be sporadic through the morning and get steadier through the afternoon.

The most organized rain will likely move through the Red River Valley later this afternoon through the evening hours. The rain will then taper off late overnight or early Saturday morning. Storm-total rainfall of 10 to 20 mm is likely by Saturday morning. Locally, amounts may vary with some areas seeing a bit less, and others potentially reaching into the 20 to 30 mm range.

There will be a brief reprieve from the rain through Saturday, then another chance of showers will develop over the region on Sunday night. A low pressure system moving out the U.S. towards Lake of the Woods will spread some light rain across the southeast corner of the province with showers spreading to the northwest. A few showers may linger across the Red River Valley into Sunday morning before tapering off. Rainfall amounts with this second system will should be significantly less than today’s system.

These passing systems will keep skies cloudy and temperatures cool over the coming days. Winnipeg will see seasonably cool highs in the mid-teens, but the cloud cover will keep lows mild near the 10 °C mark. Northeast winds will be gradually ease through the day today, followed by variable light lighter winds for Saturday and Sunday.

When the system leaves the region on Sunday, the cloud cover should finally break up, bringing some sun back to the Red River Valley. Highs will rebound back into the low 20s, making for a pleasant afternoon.

Long Range Outlook

More unsettled weather is likely to kick off next week, with more rain possible later Monday. The rest of the week looks to bring variable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Cooler air will build into the region, dropping daytime highs from the low 20s to the low teens over several days.

Longer-range forecasts show the decent into cooler conditions followed by an easing to near-seasonal temperatures. All in all, the general trend over the next couple weeks is an easing of fall conditions into the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.