A continuing series of slow-moving low pressure systems will bring more cloud and showers to southern Manitoba into the weekend.

More showers will persist across southern Manitoba today as a weak low pressure system slowly lifts into the southeastern corner of the province. Scattered showers will blossom across the region this morning as the lift from this low pushes into the region. Rain will likely be sporadic through the morning and get steadier through the afternoon.

The most organized rain will likely move through the Red River Valley later this afternoon through the evening hours. The rain will then taper off late overnight or early Saturday morning. Storm-total rainfall of 10 to 20 mm is likely by Saturday morning. Locally, amounts may vary with some areas seeing a bit less, and others potentially reaching into the 20 to 30 mm range.

There will be a brief reprieve from the rain through Saturday, then another chance of showers will develop over the region on Sunday night. A low pressure system moving out the U.S. towards Lake of the Woods will spread some light rain across the southeast corner of the province with showers spreading to the northwest. A few showers may linger across the Red River Valley into Sunday morning before tapering off. Rainfall amounts with this second system will should be significantly less than today’s system.

These passing systems will keep skies cloudy and temperatures cool over the coming days. Winnipeg will see seasonably cool highs in the mid-teens, but the cloud cover will keep lows mild near the 10 °C mark. Northeast winds will be gradually ease through the day today, followed by variable light lighter winds for Saturday and Sunday.

When the system leaves the region on Sunday, the cloud cover should finally break up, bringing some sun back to the Red River Valley. Highs will rebound back into the low 20s, making for a pleasant afternoon.

Long Range Outlook

More unsettled weather is likely to kick off next week, with more rain possible later Monday. The rest of the week looks to bring variable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Cooler air will build into the region, dropping daytime highs from the low 20s to the low teens over several days.

Longer-range forecasts show the decent into cooler conditions followed by an easing to near-seasonal temperatures. All in all, the general trend over the next couple weeks is an easing of fall conditions into the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

A slow-moving low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures to southern Manitoba over the next few days. Along with cloudy skies, the low will also bring a chance of rain in the second half of the week.

Cooler air is already on the way today behind a cold front that passed through overnight. Highs across the region will be considerably lower than yesterday’s 30 °C weather. Temperatures in southern Manitoba will climb into the upper teens today with northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. 

Cloud will begin to push into the region tonight as a slow-moving low pressure system pushes towards the Dakotas. Temperatures will dip back below 10 °C tonight as the winds ease and skies cloud over.

Beginning Wednesday, much of southern Manitoba — including Winnipeg — will see mostly cloudy skies that will persist right to the weekend. Temperatures will be very consistent through the rest of the week as well: highs will climb to the mid- to upper-teens and lows should sit in the low teens.

It should stay dry across the region on Wednesday, but conditions will grow more unsettled on Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are likely across much of the region on Thursday, but may be patchy in coverage and sporadic in nature. Amounts by Thursday evening will be generally low, with most regions seeing jp to 5 to 10 mm of rain.

The exceptions will be in western Manitoba and in southeastern Manitoba. In WestMan, 10 to 20 mm is possible due to upslope winds over the Duck Mountains and the Riding Mountains. This will depend on the rain pushing far enough northwards, which some models — like the above ECMWF output — don’t.  In the southeast corner of the province, up to 15 to 25 mm is possible as a more organized area of rain moves through that area. Some of that heavier rain may also fall over the southern Red River Valley, but that’s very uncertain right now.

The showers will ease on Thursday night, leaving just a few lingering showers across the region for Friday.

Winds will pick up out of the east to around 30 gusting 50 km/h on Wednesday, then gradually ease into the 20 to 30 km/h range as it shifts northerly over Thursday and Friday.

Long Range Outlook

The region will see mixed skies through the weekend as another low moves from the Dakotas towards NW Ontario. Highs will nudge towards the 20 °C mark, but some more rain is possible sometime later Saturday into Sunday as the low passes by the region.

Next week should bring near seasonal temperatures and a gradual clearing trend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.