Category: Forecasts

Fairly Normal Start to the Week

Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out with fairly typical conditions for this time of year. No significant weather is expected.

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GEM-Regional predicted precipitation on Monday

Monday

Monday
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Flurries
-4°C / -7°C

Monday will be a cloudy day, with a good chance of flurries. These flurries will be fairly disorganized in nature, but could amount to a couple of centimetres in many areas. Models do suggest that some localized areas could see close to 5cm by the time this area of snow completely dissipates on Tuesday morning. However, confidence is very low in terms of predicting which areas might be in for these slightly heavier amounts. As such, I’ll just suggest that any location in Southern Manitoba does stand a small chance of seeing close to 5cm if heavier periods of snow get stuck over the area. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid minus single digits in most of Southern Manitoba. Parts of western Manitoba may get up around the freezing mark as the wind there will switch to westerly, giving a downslope flow.

Tuesday and Wedensday

Tuesday
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Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Flurries.
-8°C / -15°C
Wednesday
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Mainly Sunny
-4°C / -7°C

Tuesday is a bit of a tricky forecast, albeit in a non-threatening kind of way. It looks like we may get stuck in low-level cloud and possible light flurries through the day. Alternatively, skies may clear and it could be a fairly bright and non-snowy kind of day. In either case, high temperatures will be in the mid or upper minus single digits with a breezy north-westerly wind.

Wednesday should see sunny skies return. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain stuck just below zero, as a stiff southerly flow prevents strong mixing and maximum temperature rises. As a result, we’ll see high temperatures once again in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

The long-range still doesn’t look very spring-like unfortunately. Even worse than that, models continue to hint at a stormy pattern returning to southern Manitoba towards mid-March. If you’re hoping for spring, you’d better cross your fingers that a renewed storm track through our area brings rain, rather than more snow!

Quiet Weekend Ahead

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The weather will be fairly quiet this weekend as no significant weather systems are expected to track through the region.

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-5°C / -10°C
Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, slight chance of a flurry.
-5°C / -15°C
Sunday

Mainly sunny.
-10°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud today as temperatures climb up to around 5°C as a weak low pressure system exits the province and some cloud begins streaming up ahead of a Colorado Low expected to track through the Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperatures will drop close to –10°C tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud on Saturday as we sit on the northern fringe of the Colorado Low passing through the states. There’s a very slight chance of some scattered light flurries, but it’s very unlikely should any develop that they’ll end up producing any accumulating snowfall. Temperatures will once again climb to around –5°C and drop down to around –15°C Saturday night as skies clear with the Colorado Low moving off towards Southern Ontario.

Sunday will be the coolest day we’ve had in a while. While earlier in the week it looked as if it would be quite mild by weekend’s end, it turns out that the Colorado Low will pull down cooler Arctic across Southern Manitoba. Highs will climb to –8°C under mainly sunny skies.

Warm With More Snow on the Way

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Southern Manitoba is busy cleaning up from the wallop Monday’s storm dealt with some communities digging out from under 50+cm of snow. Unfortunately, while temperatures will remain quite pleasant, another shot of snow is on the way later this week but with much less snow for most areas.

24hr. Precipitation Amounts from 12Z Thursday morning to 12Z Friday morning

Prediction from the GDPS showing roughly 5cm of snow for Winnipeg on Thursday into Friday. Generally 3–5cm should fall across the RRV, with potentially higher amounts along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

The Rest of the Week

Wednesday

Mainly sunny.
-5°C / -13°C
Thursday

Increasing cloud. Snow beginning in the afternoon. Generally 3-5cm.
-4°C / -8°C
Friday

A few flurries ending in the morning then gradual clearing.
-4°C / -9°C

We’ll see a beautiful day today with mainly sunny skies and a high temperature near –5°C. Skies will remain clear tonight as the temperature dips down to –13°C. For Thursday, we’ll see increasing cloud through the morning with light snow pushing into the Red River Valley through midday and the early afternoon. Temperatures will climb to around –4°C and we should see a couple cm or so during the day. Snow will continue through Thursday night giving another 2–4cm accumulation as temperatures dip to about –8°C. On Friday, skies will clear through the day with any lingering snow clearing out early in the morning. Temperatures should reach around –4°C again.

Total snowfall from this system should sit around 3–5cm for much of the Red River Valley, however there are numerous indications that there may be some enhanced snowfall just along and north of the low track due to enhanced instability north of the warmer air. This sort of enhancement is very sensitive to environmental conditions and can often also be extremely limited in extent, but at this point it looks like somewhere just north of the Trans-Canada Highway and Winnipeg may see closer to 7–10cm of snow from this system. I’m feeling like a broken record, but once again Winnipeg will rest right near the edge of the heaviest snowfall, and it could end up being quite a snowy night on Thursday night if this system tracks a little further south. We’ll have updates in the comments below, naturally.

The Extended Outlook

A fairly pleasant pattern is expected to set up over the weekend bringing a more zonal flow to the Prairies. This should bring in some very mild air with daytime highs climbing to 0°C by the end of the weekend. The downside to the situation is that, in contrast to the sunny skies called for by the current Environment Canada forecast, with all the snow we’ve had combined with the strengthening sun and warm temperatures, we could easily end up socked in with fog patches and stratus due to the abundant melting and strong inversion. So despite the rather optimistic outlook, there’s a chance that it could end up just sort of gloomy, damp and chilly. Here’s hoping that we can keep up enough mixing to keep the skies clear and we can enjoy an extremely pleasant start to next week!

Major Winter Storm to Start the Week

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A major winter storm will impact all of Southern Manitoba to start the week. Accumulations will be very heavy in some areas, but luckily this won’t be another blizzard.

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Weather Conditions at 12pm on Monday (GEM-Regional)

A developing low pressure system currently located in south-western Saskatchewan will be responsible for the snow. This system was formed as a powerful upper-level disturbance moved onshore in British Columbia late last night. This disturbance continues to track across the Prairies and will provide the lift necessary to generate the snow.

The snow has already begun to fall in south-western Manitoba this evening. Bands of moderate to heavy snow have been falling just south-west of Brandon. Heavy snow will continue to develop in this region as the evening progresses. Further east in the Red River Valley snow will begin to fall gradually this evening, with heavier bands moving in overnight. By Monday morning all of Southern Manitoba will be in the snow. It is expected that the heaviest snow will fall mainly south and west of Winnipeg, particularly along the international border, though the city will see decent accumulations as well. The following graphic shows our snowfall forecast for Southern Manitoba:

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Snowfall totals by Tuesday morning across Southern Manitoba.

The wind through this event won’t be particularly strong, with speeds of 20-30km/h gusting to 40-50km/h expected during the day on Monday. This will cause some blowing and drifting snow on the highways, but within urban areas the wind won’t be a significant factor. Temperatures through the day on Monday will be fairly steady in the mid to upper minus single digits, so the wind chill won’t be very high either. The snow will taper off on Tuesday night, with only lingering flurries expected by daybreak on Tuesday.

Tuesday will see our weather begin to settle down as the storm departs. As mentioned above, we may see a few flurries during the day on Tuesday, but additional accumulations will be small. Temperatures won’t drop off much, with highs once again in the mid to upper single digits.

Wednesday will again be a rather unexciting day weather-wise. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper minus single digits with a brisk south-easterly wind.