The passage of a cold front last night has ushered a cooler air mass into the region. Temperatures will stay on the warm side of seasonal through the weekend, but the heat will intensify again heading into next week.
Blustery northwest winds will cool temperatures back to seasonal values across southern Manitoba today.
The forecast for Winnipeg over the coming days is fairly quiet. A sprawling area of high pressure across the region will bring mainly sunny skies to the region over the next few days. Breezy northwest winds will keep highs in the low 20s today, but lighter southerlies on the weekend will allow highs back into the mid-20s. Dew points will stay comfortable over the coming days and lows will dip down close to the 10 °C mark.
A push of warmer air will finally reach the region on Sunday night. Overnight lows will be warmer in the mid- to upper teens. This warmer air will bring some cloud with it, but no rain is likely as it pushes in.
Long Range Outlook
Hot weather will persist through much of next week with daytime highs climbing to or just above the 30 °C mark. Dew points will stay comfortable, so the humidex values won’t be too much of an issue. Overnight lows will continue to hover in the upper teens, perhaps even close to 20 °C some nights. The region will be baking under mainly sunny skies right through most of the week.
By the end of the week, forecasts show a low pressure system pushing into the region. This will bring cloud, cooler temperatures, and a chance of thunderstorms or showers for the end of the week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to Southern Manitoba today, easing the heat and humidity of the past few days.
Showers will spread from western Manitoba southwards through the day on Tuesday.
A low pressure system crossing Hudson Bay overnight has kicked off a push of cooler air southwards through Manitoba. While this push of cold air won’t be overly strong, it will be enough to break the heat of the past few days. Highs will dip into the low to mid-20s over the next few days with northerly winds of 20—30 km/h during the day. Today will start off with a mix of sun and cloud, then become increasingly cloudy into the afternoon. Widespread showers with a risk of thunderstorms will drop through the Red River Valley mid- to late-afternoon through the evening. In Winnipeg, there is the ever-present risk that the showers will dodge around the fringes of the city, but it looks likely that there will be some rain later in the afternoon or evening. Skies will clear out overnight with lows dipping close to 10 °C.
Wednesday through Friday will bring mainly sunny skies to the region. Daytime highs will gradually warm from the low 20s back into the mid- to upper-20s. Overnight lows will climb back into the upper teens by Friday night.
Long Range Outlook
A low pressure system will likely move through the region this weekend, bringing more cloud and showers to the region. Both Saturday and Sunday look unsettled, with a few lingering showers possible on Monday. Sunshine should return for next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.
A low pressure system crossing the province will bring hot and unsettled conditions to southern Manitoba today. The heat will be short-lived, though, as a cold front ushers seasonal temperatures back into the region for Wednesday.
A low pressure system moving into Manitoba today will bring hot, humid conditions to the region.
In the wake of a warm front that moved through overnight, temperatures will soar into the upper 20s and low 30s across southern Manitoba today. Alongside the heat, humidity levels will also climb through the day, reaching fairly muggy levels by the evening.
Thunderstorm activity will be the most notable, and challenging, weather of the day. There will be several features moving through the region that that may support thunderstorms today. The first will be an area of showers and thunderstorms — the remnants of overnight convection — that will continue eastwards through the Interlake. This activity will weaken as the morning progresses. While most of it should stay north of the Red River Valley, the southern edge might clip along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor. The second feature will be the warm front itself, which may have some ongoing thunderstorms along it this morning. Any activity along it should shift eastwards into the Whiteshell and then weaken.
Once all the morning activity pushes out, the Red River Valley will see more sun as things heat up. Later in the day, a risk of severe thunderstorms will develop as several features begin pushing across southern Manitoba. Both the low centre, warm-sector trough, and cold front could support thunderstorm development later today. The heat and humidity will combine with favourable winds aloft to pose a notable risk of severe weather.
ECCC’s Thunderstorm Outlook issued on Monday afternoon shows a notable severe weather threat for southern Manitoba on Tuesday.
The combination of energy (from the humidity and instability) and shear (from how winds change with height) is highly favourable for severe thunderstorm activity across southern Manitoba today. The biggest uncertainty with storms in the afternoon/evening will be whether or not they actually develop. A layer of warm air aloft will keep storms down until late in the day. It seems likely that the forcing will be strong enough by evening for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. The activity will likely begin in the southwest and push into the Red River Valley. These thunderstorms would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, damaging hail, and torrential rain. In addition, an isolated tornado or two may be possible with these thunderstorms as well.
The last unknown related to thunderstorm development will be exactly how warm temperatures end up. Satellite imagery yesterday evening showed a fair amount of high-level smoke moving eastwards from fires over southern British Columbia. If that smoke inhibits temperatures even a couple degrees, that could be enough to thwart thunderstorm development. All those things being taken into account, the weather later today is a bit of an unknown. It will be important to stay up to date on any watches or warnings issued by ECCC later today.
The thunderstorm threat will diminish in the evening as temperatures fall to a low in the mid-teens. Winnipeg will see pleasant conditions on Wednesday with clearing skies, breezy northwest winds, and a high in the low 20s. On Thursday, breezy southerlies will push a warm front northwards and send highs back into the upper 20s. Thursday night might be very warm with southerlies continuing and lows warmer than 20 °C possible.
Long Range Outlook
Friday could bring some morning showers or thunderstorms to the Red River Valley, followed by mixed skies and a high in the upper 20s again. It might also get humid on Friday as well. A cold front will sweep through by Friday evening, ushering cooler temperatures back into the region for the weekend. Highs will likely sit in the low 20s with lows in the low to mid-teens on Saturday and Sunday. A few showers might be possible on Sunday as well.
Next week is looking like it will start off with near-seasonal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.
Winnipeg will see summer heat return with temperatures climbing back towards the 30 °C mark before unsettled conditions close out the weekend.
Warmer weather will spread across southern Manitoba on Saturday with highs reaching the 30 °C mark.
An upper ridge moving into the region will push warmer weather into southern Manitoba as the sunshine continues. Winnipeg will see a near-seasonal high in the upper 20s today, but temperatures will climb to 30 °C on Saturday. Humidity levels should stay fairly comfortable through both days. The combination of the upper ridging and a surface-level ridge will keep skies sunny for the next couple days.
Overnight lows will rise from the mid-teens to the upper teens over the next couple nights.
On Sunday, a low pressure system will move across southern Manitoba and pull a cold front southwards through the region. Skies will be cloudier with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible across the region. Most of the organized rain will likely fall across the Interlake region with 5–15 mm possible to the north of Winnipeg. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the low 20s as breezy northwest winds develop behind the low. Temperatures will head down into the mid-teens on Sunday night with clearing skies and easing winds.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will bring variable cloudiness and near-seasonal temperatures. No major rain events are in the forecast, but there may be a few chances for scattered showers or thunderstorms through the week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.
