Category: Forecasts

Seasonably Cool and Showery Weather Ahead

Brad

A northwesterly flow will bring seasonably cool and showery weather to southern Manitoba this week.

RDPS 300mb Wind and Height Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday July 27, 2022
An upper low will slump across Manitoba over the coming days, bringing cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions.

An upper low slumping from northern Manitoba towards Lake of the Woods will usher a northwest flow into Manitoba and bring seasonably cool temperatures to the region. Today will start off with showers ending early, followed by mixed skies with more showers likely later in the morning and into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may even develop in the afternoon, but no organized severe weather threat will exist with them. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid-20s this afternoon with a northwest wind increasing to 30 gusting 50 km/h.

The showers will taper off in the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Partly cloudy skies will linger overnight with a low in the mid-teens.

On Wednesday, the upper low will drag a trough southwards over the Red River Valley, bringing more showers to the region. Temperatures will be even cooler with a high only around 20 °C. The region will see breezy northerly winds again through the day. The showers will taper off in the evening, but some cloud will continue to linger into the night. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens overnight.

The whole disturbance will begin to move off from the region on Thursday. Winnipeg should see mixed clouds with just a small chance of any more rain showers. Temperatures will climb back into the low 20s with light northerly winds. Skies should finally clear out by Thursday evening as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will head to an overnight low in the low teens again on Thursday night.

Long Range Outlook

The heat returns for the weekend with highs climbing back to seasonal or seasonably warm values. There should be plenty of sunshine and little chance of rain. Overnight lows will also warm substantially, climbing back into the upper teens.

If the next few days of cooler, showery weather isn’t your cup of tea, don’t worry! The summer heat is right around the corner.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Showery Friday Night Leads to Seasonal Summer Weekend

Brad

A low pressure system moving through tonight will bring [thunder]showers to southern Manitoba, but leave behind pleasant summer conditions for the weekend.

Today will start off with beautiful conditions as temperatures climb into the upper 20s under mainly sunny skies. As the low approaches later in the day, cloud cover will start to build into the Red River Valley, particularly later today into the evening. The low will pass by to the south tonight, spreading showers across southern Manitoba. There may be enough instability to produce a few thundershowers, but no severe weather threat is expected. Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-teens with showers likely continuing into Saturday morning. By the time it all tapers off on Saturday, it’s likely that Winnipeg will receive at least 10 mm of rain with amounts high as 20–30 mm if some heavier showers end up developing as well.

The one exception to all this will be southwestern Manitoba, where strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Be sure to stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by ECCC later today.

The cloud cover will begin to break up as the showers taper off on Saturday afternoon. Temperatures should still manage to climb into the low to mid-20s with a bit of a northerly breeze. A few clouds will linger through the region Saturday night with a low in the 10–15 °C range.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies to the region with a high in the low to mid-20s.

Long Range Outlook

Monday will start next week with pleasant conditions and seasonal temperatures. After that, though, the overall pattern looks to turn more unsettled. Beginning Monday night into Tuesday, the region will see mixed to cloudy skies with several chances for showers or thunderstorms that will last into later in the week before settling down again. The work week should end with pleasant conditions as sunnier skies and highs in the upper 20s return.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot Summer Weather Ahead

Brad

The heat will slowly build over Southern Manitoba in the coming days as the region heads towards a very hot weekend.

GDPS 500 mb Height Forecast (with Anomaly) valid 12Z Wednesday July 13, 2022
The forecast 500 mb heights with the climatological anomaly overlaid shows a strong upper ridge building across Manitoba on Tuesday.

This week will see an upper ridge building into and strengthening over the Prairies. As it does, conditions will stabilize as temperatures slowly climb.

Southern Manitoba will see a sunny start to the day give way to mixed skies. Temperatures will climb into the upper 20s across the region with a bit of a northerly breeze. Some lingering instability will result in a few scattered showers that will move through the Red River Valley in the afternoon with the risk of a thundershower. Skies will clear in the evening as temperatures head to a low in the mid-teens.

Wednesday will be a beautiful day across the region with sunshine, light winds out of the south and a high in the upper 20s. Temperatures will fall to a low in the upper teens on Wednesday night.

On Thursday, an upper disturbance lifting northeastwards across the Prairies will bring some cloud to the region along with increasing heat and humidity. Temperatures should climb to the 30 °C mark with breezy southerly winds developing. The humidity will gradually climb through the day, likely beginning to feel a bit muggy by the end of the day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region in the evening, and with the heat and humidity present there could be a risk of severe weather.

Long Range Outlook

The upper ridge will rebound and strengthen heading into the weekend, bringing increasing sun and even warmer weather. Daytime highs will climb into the low to mid-30s for the weekend under sunny skies. The humidity will likely be moderate to high which will help keep overnight lows mild near 20 °C.

The heat will continue into Monday before the upper ridge begins to break down, bringing slightly cooler weather and the chance of rain back to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Beautiful Friday Gives Way to Unsettled Weekend

Brad

Summer heat will push into southern Manitoba for the weekend, starting with a beautiful Friday in Winnipeg. More humid conditions will develop on Saturday which will also bring the chance of stormy weather.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday July 9, 2022
Humid conditions will develop across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

A light southeasterly flow will develop across the Red River Valley today as a warmer air mass moves into the region. Highs will climb into the upper 20s across the region under mainly sunny skies, making for a beautiful afternoon. The humidity will stay at comfortable levels through the day.

Temperatures will stay mild tonight with a low in the upper teens as more warm air pushes into the area. There will be a significant push of humidity northwards overnight, which could result in a few thunderstorms later in the night or early Saturday morning.

As temperatures warm up on Saturday, the moisture that streamed northwards will mix back down to the surface, resulting in a dramatic increase in humidity through the morning. Dew point values will climb near or above 20 °C by midday, making it feel very muggy outside. Mixed skies will keep temperatures a bit cooler than they would otherwise be with highs in the upper 20s.

Another risk of thunderstorms will develop as a trough of low pressure moves across the region later in teh day. Given the heat and moisture over the region, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms with this system. All thunderstorm hazards will be possible, including an isolated tornado if storms are able to develop early enough to be surface-based. Definitely keep an eye out for any alerts issued by ECCC on Saturday.

Temperatures will stay very warm on Saturday night with lows near the 20 °C mark. The risk of thunderstorms could continue well into the night across much of the region.

Sunday will bring mixed skies to the region with temperatures once again climbing into the upper 20s. The humidity should ease a bit heading into the afternoon with slightly drier conditions behind Saturday’s surface trough. The potential for thunderstorms will return in the evening as a cold front slumps towards the area from the north. This activity shouldn’t be as bad as Saturday night’s, but there’s enough support for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. This risk will continue into the night as an upper-level disturbance tracks over the province.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring near- to above-seasonal temperatures with generally pleasant conditions. A small chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms will continue into the early part of the week, but a building upper ridge will likely bring much sunnier, warmer weather to the region for the latter half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.