Category: Forecasts

Mild, Unsettled Conditions Moving In

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Seasonably warm weather will continue in Winnipeg as a slow-moving disturbance brings unsettled conditions to the region mid-week.

RDPS 10m Wind and MLSP Forecast valid 03Z Thursday August 15, 2024
A slow-moving disturbance that extends from the southern Arctic to the United States will move through Manitoba this week.

For today, though, the Winnipeg area will have a beautiful day. A ridge of high pressure over the region will keep skies mainly sunny as temperatures climb to highs in the upper 20s. Humidity levels will stay comfortable with light southeast winds.

A change in the weather will begin tonight. A broad and slow-moving disturbance that stretches from the southern Arctic all the way south to the United States will begin pushing a more humid and unsettled air mass into the province. This system will begin as a low pressure system in Saskatchewan today that will support the development of showers and thunderstorms that tracks towards western Manitoba overnight.

Further east in the Red River Valley, a chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop overnight as a strengthening low-level flow is lifted over a warm front. Elevated showers or thunderstorms could be possible through the second half of the night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will drop to a low in the upper teens with southeast winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The forecast gets…fuzzier heading into Wednesday. This system will separate into a low centre that tracks into northern Manitoba and a second low center that consolidates further south in the Dakotas. Both of these systems will support their own area of showers and/or thunderstorms, but what happens between the two is unclear.

As this system will begin slow-moving, it’s likely that both Wednesday and Thursday will bring mainly cloudy skies to the Winnipeg area with southeast winds of 20 to 30 km/h on Wednesday becoming light for Thursday. There will be a chance of showers this whole period, though the highest chance looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be mild with seasonal highs in the mid-20s and lows in the mid- to upper-teens.

At this point it’s unclear if there’s much of a severe weather threat or not for the region. If there’s enough lift from this system, then widespread showers or more likely, and if there’s not enough, there could be little precipitation at all. There is a sweet spot, though, that a few high-resolution weather models pick up on, that could produce rounds of more intense thunderstorms. There’s nothing to do but wait and watch for now, though, and see how this system evolves. Make sure that you stay aware of any weather alerts issued by the Storm Prediction Centre in Winnipeg over the next couple days.

Long Range Outlook

This system will exit the region on Friday, brining sunnier skies back to the region with light to moderate northerly winds. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through the weekend, bringing light winds, highs in the mid- to upper-20s, and lows in the mid-teens. After a couple unsettled days, it looks like a strong finish to the work week and a wonderful summer weekend ahead.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Temperatures Warming Back up Over the Weekend

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An Arctic high will bring one more day of cool weather to Winnipeg, but warmer temperatures will build back in through the weekend.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Friday August 9, 2024
A sprawling Arctic high will be the dominant weather feature over the eastern Prairies this weekend.

An Arctic high will sit entrenched over the eastern Prairies over the next few days, gradually weakening as the cool air over the region gradually warms. This will result in a simple forecast for Winnipeg: gradually increasing sunniness with warming temperatures.

Skies will improve from mixed skies today to partly cloudy skies on Saturday to mainly sunny skies on Sunday. Northerly winds in the 20–30 km/h range today will ease tonight; heading into the weekend the winds will be light out of the northwest on Saturday and the west on Sunday.

Temperatures will be cool today as the region is under the remains of the cold air core from the low that passed into the region earlier this week. Temperatures will climb to around 20 °C today in Winnipeg, return to seasonal values on Saturday in the low to mid-20s, then climb into the mid- to upper-20s on Sunday.

Overnight lows will slowly climb through the weekend into the mid-teens as more seasonal levels of humidity build back in.

Long Range Outlook

The start of next week will continue to bring warm and settled weather to the region as the area of high pressure over the region continues to weaken and gradually drift to the southeast. The chance of showers or thunderstorms may return mid-week, but settled conditions will likely return quickly with near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Winnipeg Heat Wave Breaks This Weekend

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The summer heat that’s been in place over the region this week will come to an end as a cold front sweeps southwards.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday August 3, 2024
A broad area of high pressure building in from the Arctic will cool temperatures towards seasonal averages across southern Manitoba this weekend.

Before the cooler weather arrives, though, southern Manitoba will have one more hot day. Another low pressure system moving towards the province will push more warm air into the southern portion of the province today. Daytime highs will again climb up to around 30 °C with plenty of sunshine this afternoon.

Conditions will finally change tonight when a cold front sweeps southwards. It will bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region overnight into Saturday morning as it moves through. Temperatures will dip into the upper teens as light northerly winds develop.

The chance of rain will taper off on Saturday morning as north winds pick up into the 20–30 km/h range. Temperatures will climb up into the low- to mid-20s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Heading into the night, temperatures will drop into the mid-teens with light north winds.

Sunday will bring a repeat of Saturday as a broad area of high pressure builds into the province. Temperatures will again climb into the low- to mid-20s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the north through the day. Clouds may move in on Sunday evening as temperatures dip down into the low teens.

The other notable change for the weekend is that while lingering humidity may stick around through Saturday, much drier air will push into the region by Sunday, offering relief from the more humid weather of the past week.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring seasonably cool temperatures with daytime highs in the 20–25 °C range and overnight lows in the 10–15 °C. A partly cloudy start to the week could turn unsettled mid-week, but settled conditions should develop for the end of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

#awm_rain #awm_thunderstorms #Winnipeg #mbstorm

Hot Weather Continues This Week

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Hot and humid conditions will continue this week in Winnipeg with the occasional chance of thunderstorms.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday July 29, 2024
It will be a hot and humid day across southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the low 30s.

We’re back! This hiatus was longer than originally thought, but between minor burn-out with work, minor health concerns, travel, and a busy family schedule, there wasn’t much left in the tank by the time I could sit down and write. Things are in a better spot now, though! I’m rested — I was fortunate to be able to take much of July off — and the schedule is calming down. I hope to be back to writing twice weekly, but we’ll see how the summer schedule goes. That said, I’m starting this post off wanting to write instead of feeling like I have to write, which is a good start.

And what a day to get back at it. It will be a hot one in Winnipeg today as a low pressure system pushing into central Manitoba draws a hot air mass into the southern reaches of the province. Daytime highs will climb into the low 30s in the Red River Valley with muggy conditions as dew points climb back above 20 °C. The heat and humidity will combine to make it feel closer to 40 this afternoon.

Heading into the evening, a trough of low pressure will begin digging into this hot and humid air mass from the west. The environment over southern Manitoba will be primed for strong to severe thunderstorms. It will be an extremely unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE values in excess of 2,500 J/kg and winds over the region will produce 20 to 30 knots of deep shear and be favourable for discrete supercell development. If any thunderstorms are able to develop along this trough, it is likely that they will quickly become severe thunderstorms capable of torrential rain, large hail, damaging wind gusts, and pose a low risk of a tornado.

All that said, though, it remains a low risk. By late in the day, a mid-level axis of warm air will be positioned over the region, and warm air aloft will work against the development of thunderstorms. With the potential potency of thunderstorm activity later today and its uncertainty, be sure to stay aware of any alerts that may be issued later today by the Meteorological Service of Canada.

If thunderstorms develop, the activity could persist into the overnight period, weakening as the night goes on.

Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and hot day. The trough of low pressure will linger in the region, but much of the Red River Valley will sit west of it; this will give northwest winds to much of the region, bringing a slight easing of the humidity as dew points drop back into the upper teens. Daytime highs will climb back into the upper 20s with partly cloudy skies. There is a slight risk of a thunderstorm later in the day, but much of the instability will have shifted east and the likelihood looks low.

Thursday will bring sunny skies to the region as temperatures head back into the low 30s. The humidity will likely continue to ease, making for a less muggy day than the region will see today.

All three nights — tonight, Wednesday night, and Thursday night — will bring lows in the upper teens or low 20s and light winds.

Long Range Outlook

Friday will bring more heat and sunshine to the region with daytime highs near 30 °C, but with less humidity than seen through the earlier parts of the week. Sometime Friday night or early Saturday, a cold front will push through southern Manitoba and bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms. Behind it, conditions will settle and temperatures will return to seasonal values.

A stretch of seasonal temperatures is expected to persist through the weekend and into next week. This, unfortunately, could result in forest fire smoke from western Canada spreading into southern Manitoba. It’s too early to tell, but keep in mind that those cooler temperatures could come with degraded air quality.

Stay cool today, check on those you know who don’t have A/C, and have a good week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.