Wet Weather Leads Into Weekend Warm-Up

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Some midweek rain, Winnipeg will finally see temperatures return towards seasonal values, with positively summer-like weather possible this weekend!

A low pressure system moving through southern Manitoba and the Dakotas today will bring dreary weather to the region today. Winnipeg will see cloudy skies with rain beginning later this morning. The rain will last through the afternoon, then ease through the evening. Temperatures will only climb to a high near 8°C today with southeast winds picking up to 30 gusting 50 km/h. The winds will ease tonight as temperatures head to a low near +4°C.

Rainfall amounts will vary across the Red River Valley with 2 mm likely near Portage la Prairie increasing to 10 to 15 mm over the southeastern Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg, totals should end up near the 5 mm mark.

RDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Thursday May 14, 2020
Rain will spread across the Red River Valley on Wednesday with highest accumulations in the southeastern portion of the province.

On Thursday, skies will stay cloudy with some more showers arriving midday as a secondary disturbance moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near 14°C with northwest winds near 20 km/h. Skies will clear out towards the evening, then temperatures will dip to a low near +3°C with light winds.

Friday will be the last seasonably cool day before warmer temperatures begin working in for the weekend. Winds will pick up out of the north into the 20 to 30 km/h range as temperatures head to a high near 14°C. Skies will be mainly sunny as a broad area of high pressure works its way across the Prairies. Temperatures will dip to a low near +4°C on Friday night with clear skies and light winds.

Long Range Outlook

Warmer weather will finally return this weekend as upper ridging develops and begins to move across the Prairies. Saturday should see temperatures return to seasonal values, then potentially climb into the mid-20s on Sunday! Mild temperatures look to stay for the first half of next week, then a push of cooler air may result in showers or thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. A cooler end to the work week looks to be in store.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.

Near-Record Cold To Start The Week

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Winnipeg will see temperatures over 10°C below normal continue to start the week with overnight lows dipping close to record values.

The cold weather continues as a potent, sprawling Arctic high builds into the province. Breezy northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h will keep things cool again today with a high of 7°C. Temperatures will plummet back below zero tonight to a low near -7 or -8°C with light winds and clear skies. While not a record, it will get close to the record low of -10.0°C set in 1918.

Temperatures will rebound slightly Tuesday, but still stay well below seasonal values. Winnipeg will see a high near 11°C under mainly sunny skies. The wind will be light, which will help things feel a little nicer than the past few days. Temperatures will head back towards 0°C on Tuesday night with increasing cloud.

NAM 48hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Thursday May 14, 2020
Rain will spread across southern Manitoba on Wednesday with many areas forecast to receive around 10 mm by the time it tapers off on Wednesday night.

On Wednesday, a warm front pushing into the region will spread rain eastwards across the Red River Valley. The wet weather will keep temperatures cool again with a high near 9°C with southeast winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The rain will taper off in the evening with event accumulations likely near to 10 mm. Temperatures will dip to a low near 5°C on Wednesday night with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers.

Long Range Outlook

The passage of Wednesday’s warm front will mark the start of a return towards seasonal temperatures. Once any remaining cloud and/or showers moves out on Thursday morning, temperatures will climb into the upper teens through the rest of the week. On the weekend, 20°C highs will be possible again! Winnipeg should see plenty of sun though the second half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

Cold Weekend Ahead

Brad

While we often try to be optimistic about the forecast, there’s no getting around it. This weekend’s weather will be lousy.

A persistent vortex over eastern Canada combined with a stationary upper ridge over the west coast will keep Manitoba locked into a regime of cool temperatures.

Today will be the “nicest” day of the next few with sunny skies and a high near 9°C. This is almost 10°C below seasonal averages and it’s going to get even cooler yet. Winds will be out of the north at just 10 to 20 km/h. A low moving through Saskatchewan will spread cloud into southern Manitoba tonight as Winnipeg’s low dips to around -2°C.

Saturday will be a cloudy day in Winnipeg with northerly winds strengthening to 30 gusting 50 km/h. Conditions should stay dry in the Red River Valley with any rain showers or snow associated with the low moving out of Saskatchewan remaining over southwestern Manitoba. Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb to around 9°C, then to near -2°C tonight as the cloud begins to break up. The winds will ease this evening.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid 00Z Monday May 11, 2020
This forecast map of 850 mb temperature departures from normal show the huge extent of the below-seasonal temperatures (blue/purple) expected this weekend in the northerly flow west of the Eastern Canada vortex.

Sunday will bring mixed skies to Winnipeg with north winds increasing back to 30 gusting 50 km/h and a high near 6°C. Skies will clear out on Sunday night with a low near -6°C.

Long Range Outlook

Anyone hoping to see more seasonal, spring-like weather is going to need patience. The cool conditions will persist through much of next week. Temperatures should return to the teens by mid-week, then continue warming to seasonal values by the end of the week. No major precipitation events are in the forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

Sunny and Cool Conditions Ahead

Brad

Winnipeg will see copious amounts of sunshine through the rest of the week, but seasonably cool temperatures have settled into the region.

Winnipeg’s forecast for the coming days is short but sweet: sunny. Other than a few passing clouds this morning, skies should stay essentially clear for the coming 3 days. Highs will slump to around 10°C with overnight lows dipping below freezing each night.

GDPS 2m Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid 00Z Friday May 8, 2020
Forecast temperature departure from normal. While parts of the western Prairies will see seasonably mild conditions, Manitoba will be locked into cooler weather.

Winds will be a bit breezy out of the north today at 20 to 30 km/h. Thursday will be the windiest day of the next three with northerly winds strengthening to 30 gusting 50 km/h. Winds will be lighter on Friday out of the north at 15 to 25 km/h. Winds will ease to light each of the coming nights.

Long Range Outlook

This cool weather is the result of a persistent upper-level flow that has ridging over the west coast and troughing over Hudson Bay and the eastern Arctic. This setup results in a north-northwest flow over Manitoba that supplies plenty of cool air to the region. This will continue until this upper-level pattern breaks down.

Unfortunately, there won’t be any major changes until sometime in the middle of next week when the Hudson Bay vortex begins to shift and break down.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.