Mild Start to Week Turns Unpleasant

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Winnipeg will enjoy two mild days before what may be a significant winter storm moves into the province.

Winnipeg will enjoy seasonable warmth over the next couple days. An upper level ridge moving across the region will usher in southerly winds and warmer weather. Both today and tomorrow will see highs climb towards 20°C with southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The city should see plenty of sunshine both days and seasonably mild overnight lows.

Seasonably mild temperatures will be in place over southern Manitoba on Tuesday while a sharp cold front pushes towards the region.
Seasonably mild temperatures will be in place over southern Manitoba on Tuesday while a sharp cold front pushes towards the region.

Unfortunately, a significant change in the weather is on the way for Wednesday. A potent low pressure system tracking through the Northwest Territories will combine with a deepening long-wave trough to send a cold front surging southeastwards across the Prairies. It will push into southern Manitoba on Wednesday, bringing much cooler temperatures and cloudy skies. Winds will strengthen to 30 gusting 50 km/h out of the north and the entire region will see a chance of showers.

While the Red River Valley may see rain showers on Wednesday, snow will likely push into southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake region.
While the Red River Valley may see rain showers on Wednesday, snow will likely push into southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake region.

The precipitation will organize on Wednesday night with heavier bands lifting northeastwards out of the Dakotas. There’s some uncertainty right now, but it’s possible that the rain mixes or changes over to snow sometime Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

Before anything else: there is still significant uncertainty with how the weather will develop later this week. With that said, southern Manitoba may see a multi-day winter storm on Thursday through Saturday. A potent Colorado Low will begin lifting northeastwards on Thursday, spreading moderate to heavy precipitation into the region. While this happens, northerly winds will strengthen and sustain a feed of cold Arctic air into the region. As the low reaches Lake of the Woods on Friday, it is forecast to stall out for 24 to 48 hours. This will result in bands of precipitation back into southern Manitoba, gradually changing to snow.

Exactly how much precipitation the region sees and what it falls at is uncertain; there’s a lot of ways this forecast can change between now and then. If this ends up on the snowier side, it could end up being a fairly major snowfall with at least 20 to 30 cm of the white stuff. Persistent rainfall may reduce snowfall amounts in some areas. But more rain isn’t exactly a desirable thing for a region whose rivers are already swollen with excess rainfall over the past month. This system could easily produce another 25 to 50 mm over the region which, if falling as rain, would quickly find its way into the river and aggravate overland flooding issues that exist in areas of the province.

We’ll be keeping an eye on this system as it develops and have more details in our Wednesday morning forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 13°C while the seasonal overnight low is +2°C.

Cool and Wet Fall Weather Continues, Warmth Returns Next Week…Briefly

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Winnipeg will see a few more days of seasonably cool weather and a bit more rain. Relief is on the way to start next week as some sun and warmth return to the region.

Outflow from a departing arctic high will result in a rather breezy day today in the Red River Valley. Winds will pick up out of the south to 30 gusting 50 km/h this morning and will make this afternoon’s high of 11°C feel rather cool. Skies will stay mostly cloudy through the day as well. Tonight, a low pressure system will approach the region from the southwest. The cloud cover will thicken up with some rain spreading into the region for the second half of the night. Temperatures will dip to a low near 6°C.

Winnipeg will see periods of rain on Saturday as the low moves through the province. The wet weather will keep things cool with a high near 9°C, but winds will be light much of the day. Later in the afternoon winds will pick up out of the northwest into the 20 to 30 km/h range behind the low, then shift westerly at around 20 km/h for the night. The rain will taper off on Saturday evening; this system looks likely to produce another 10 to 20 mm of rain through the region. Temperatures will nudge down overnight to 8°C.

Another batch of rain will spread across the province on Saturday.
Another batch of rain will spread across the province on Saturday.

On Sunday morning, a few showers will be possible in Winnipeg as precipitation streams off of Lake Manitoba. The best chance looks through the morning hours, then the lake-effect precipitation will likely weaken. The city will see mostly cloudy skies through the day with those westerly winds continuing near 20 km/h. Skies are forecast to clear Sunday night as a ridge moves into the region. Temperatures will plunge as a result to a low near 0°C.

Long Range Outlook

A push of warm air continues to look likely to start next week. Should it arrive as expected, Winnipeg will see temperatures climb into the upper teens for both Monday and Tuesday. Another low is forecast to impact the region mid-week followed by a major surge of Arctic air southwards, plunging the region into a stretch of below-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14°C while the seasonal overnight low is +2°C.

Gradually Improving Weather in Winnipeg

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The weather will slowly improve in Winnipeg through the rest of the work week.

Winnipeg will see a gradual return towards seasonal conditions despite the prevalence of a large Arctic ridge. Today and Thursday will both bring mostly cloudy skies as the high moves through. Temperatures will be seasonably cool with highs in the upper single digits. Earlier in the week it looked like more rain would be possible for Winnipeg, but latest forecasts have shunted the precipitation southwards. Most of the rain will fall south of the border, but a bit may cross the southern Red River Valley tonight. Winds will stay light the next couple days. 

An Arctic ridge will keep the next batch of rain further south with just a chance that it pushes north of the border.

On Friday, sunshine should return to the region with mixed skies as brisk southerly winds develop. As the wind increases to 30 gusting 50 km/h, temperatures will finally climb into the low teens. The cloud cover will thicken up late in the day with a chance of rain developing again on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

A trough moving across the region will continue to bring a chance of rain through Saturday, then conditions are forecast to settle for much of next week. After the sun returns for the end of the weekend, it looks like it will stick around for much of next week. Temperatures will return to near-seasonal values with highs in the low to mid-teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Cold, Wet Weather Continues

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Cold and wet weather will stick around in Winnipeg for another few days.

Winnipeg will get another soaking today as more rain moves through the region. The rain will intensify early this morning as the low responsible for all this wet weather moves through the Dakotas. Much of the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg, will see another 15 to 30 mm of rain before it tapers off through the afternoon. Northerly winds near 30 km/h will keep things cool with a high of just 8°C. Temperatures will dip down to a low near +2°C tonight with north-northwest winds of 10 to 20 km/h. Some lake effect snow or rain showers are possible in the lee of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg tonight.

Another moderate rainfall will occur across southern Manitoba today.
Another moderate rainfall will occur across southern Manitoba today.

The region will see a brief break from the rain on Tuesday as an arctic ridge moves across the province. It won’t bring much sun, though, with mainly cloudy skies persisting across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be cool again with a high near 7°C in Winnipeg with northerly winds of 15 to 20 km/h. The chance for lake-effect rain showers or flurries will continue in the lee of the lakes for much of the day. Winnipeg will see a low near +2°C again with light winds tonight under cloudy skies.

Skies will stay cloudy on Wednesday with light winds through the day. Highs through the region will be cool near 6 or 7°C. Yet more rain looks to be on the way on Wednesday night as another low spreads rain out of the U.S. into the Red River Valley. Another 5 to 10 mm is possible on Wednesday night with temperatures heading to a low near +3°C.

Long Range Outlook

Rain will taper off for the rest of the work week with highs climbing back into the low teens. Some sun will work back into the region for Thursday and Friday as well.

That said, another low looks to move towards the region to start the weekend, with another 5 to 10 mm possible on Saturday. Forecasts show things finally settling heading through the latter half of the weekend into next week. Temperatures are forecast to return to seasonal values early next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is +3°C.