Seasonably Warm with Unsettled Conditions Ahead

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Unsettled conditions will usher in cooler, but still mild, temperatures and less humid conditions for Thursday, but more humidity and rain looks likely on Friday.

The hot and humid weather Winnipeg has seen over the past couple days will come to an end today. A low pressure moving across the province will bring mixed skies to the Red River Valley as it gradually pushes the humid air off to the east. The region will have a chance of seeing some showers or thunderstorms, particularly midday into the afternoon, but most of the activity should keep to the west and north of Winnipeg. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than the last couple, but still above-seasonal with a high near 24°C.

As the day progresses, winds will pick up out of the west into the 20 to 30 km/h range, then shift northwest in the evening as they taper off. Temperatures will head to a low near 13°C. Despite the cooler low, there’s still a chance that Winnipeg may break its record warm minimum temperature for September 18. The city managed to break yesterday’s warm minimum record – 17.8°C set in 1946 – with a minimum of 21.3°C. If temperatures can stay above 15.8°C until 1 AM, then the city will break the previous record set in 1964.

Farily humid conditions will linger through the afternoon before northwest winds move into the region this evening, ushering in a drier air mass.
Farily humid conditions will linger through the afternoon before northwest winds move into the region this evening, ushering in a drier air mass.

Thursday will be a pleasant day across the region as a ridge of high pressure moves through. Expect mainly sunny skies, light winds, and a high near 22°C. The next disturbance on the way will spread cloud into the region on Thursday night as temperatures head to a low near 14°C.

Friday will bring the next significant low pressure system to southern Manitoba. The low is forecast to organize over central North Dakota on Friday, then move across the Red River Valley on Friday night. It will spread showers and thunderstorms into southern Manitoba through the day Friday, that will further organize and strengthen into Friday night. This system will be capable of producing heavy rainfall as it taps into that same humid air that was over Winnipeg on Monday and Tuesday.

It’s still a bit early to be specific in the forecast, but in general it looks like much of southern Manitoba will see showers and thunderstorms with 25 to 50 mm of rain by the end of Saturday. The biggest uncertainties will be when the rain begins—some suggest early Friday, other models keep the rain off until late in the day—and how banded in nature the heavy rain is. Either way, wet weather looks to be back on the way for Friday into Saturday.

Other than the rain, Friday will be seasonably warm with a high near 25°C. A southerly wind of 20 to 30 km/h will draw some humidity back north, making it feel a bit humid out and ensuring that it stays on the warmer side while it rains.

Long Range Outlook

Generally unsettled conditions look to persist through the weekend with the chance for showers continuing Saturday night and mixed to cloudy skies on Sunday with the chance for a few more showers. Temperatures will return to seasonal values this weekend, then continue at seasonal to slightly above-seasonal values through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Hot & Humid Weather Returns to Winnipeg

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Summer returns to Winnipeg as hot and humid conditions move in to start the week.

Winnipeg will see hot and humid weather today with plenty of sunshine. The city will see a high near 29°C today with notable humidity developing for the afternoon. Dew point temperatures will rise to 19 to 20°C by the end of the day, making it feel quite muggy out. Winds will be relatively light today out of the southeast at 20 km/h.

Humid conditions will continue tonight, keeping temperatures warm. The city will see a low of just 20°C with a few clouds moving in.

The hot and humid weather continues on Tuesday with a high near 30°C and partly cloudy skies. Winds will be stronger, increasing out of the south to around 30 gusting 50 km/h by the end of the day. Temperatures will head to a low near 20°C again on Tuesday night under mixed skies.

Dew point values will settle near 20°C by the end of the day on Monday, making it feel very humid.
Dew point values will settle near 20°C by the end of the day on Monday, making it feel very humid.

The heat will finally break on Wednesday as a low pressure system moves through the region. As it moves through, it will bring mixed to cloudy skies with a chance of showers or thunderstorms. Winds will shift westerly in the morning and increase to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. The humidity will stay for much of the day with dew points remaining in the upper teens. A cold front will push through on Wednesday evening, bringing northwesterly winds to the region that will push the humidity out. Temperatures will dip to a low near 12°C.

The warm nights ahead won’t just be seasonably mild, they may end up being record breakers. New record warm minimum temperatures may be set for September 17 and 18th. If temperatures stay above 20°C on both days, it will easily beat the current records of 17.8°C (1946) and 15.6°C (1964) respectively.

Long Range Outlook

The second half of the week will continue to be seasonably warm with daytime highs in the mid-twenties. Humidity will return to the region on Friday ahead of a major low pressure system. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba on Friday. Unsettled weather will move through the region on Saturday, followed by calmer conditions and seasonal temperatures on Sunday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Rain Ends and Summer Returns

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Rain will taper off today in Winnipeg and after one cool night, summer heat will begin pushing back into the region.

Winnipeg managed to miss out on the heaviest rainfall expected with this system. Rather than stalling near the city, the rain—and associated deformation zone—ended up continuing to rotate northwest of the city. As the low responsible for the unsettled conditions exits the province, that band of rain will push eastwards and move back across the Red River Valley this morning. Winnipeg will see a few more showers as it moves through that taper off midday. Moderate northwesterly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h will develop this morning and last until the evening. The cloud cover should begin to break up through the afternoon with clearing arriving late in the afternoon or early evening.

A ridge of high pressure moving through tonight will bring cool conditions with temperatures heading to a low near +4°C.

Fortunes change on Saturday as a warm front pushes eastwards through the province. Some morning cloud will give way to mixed skies for the afternoon with a southerly wind of 20 to 30 km/h developing. Some forecast models suggest a chance of showers midday as the warm front passes, but it doesn’t look particularly likely. Temperatures will climb to seasonably mild high near 21°C. Skies will stay partly cloudy on Saturday night with light southerly winds and a low near 11°C.

Milder temperatures near 20°C will return to southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Milder temperatures near 20°C will return to southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Warm air will continue to stream northwards on Sunday, bringing summer heat back into the region. Winnipeg will see partly cloudy skies as temperatures head to a high near 25°C. Humidity will begin to work back into the region late in the day, helping keep overnight lows warmer near 15°C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will kick off with even more heat and humidity as Winnipeg’s daytime highs climb into the upper 20s. Multiple days of southerly winds will bring humidity back into the region, producing humidex values in the low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7°C.

More Wet Weather On The Way, But A Second Summer Approaches

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Winnipeg will see more rain in the second half of the week, but all signs point towards a return to summer temperatures by the end of the weekend!

Tucked between two lows, Winnipeg will see a brief reprieve from wet weather today. Although there may be the odd break of sunshine, skies should stay mostly cloudy. Winds out of the northeast at 20 to 30 km/h will keep the daytime high to a seasonably cool 16°C. The winds will persist tonight as temperatures head to a low near 9°C.

A large low pressure system moving towards Lake of the Woods on Thursday will spread more rain into southern Manitoba. Rain should spread northwards into Winnipeg through the morning, then persist through the afternoon into Thursday night. Winds will strengthen to 30 gusting 50 km/h out of the northeast in the morning. The wind and wet weather will keep things cool; Winnipeg should see a high near 12°C.

The wind will shift to the north-northwest on Thursday night with a low near 9°C.

While much of southern Manitoba will likely see at least 20 to 30 mm of rain through the end of the week, some forecast models suggest that the region could see a widespread 25 to 50 mm.
While much of southern Manitoba will likely see at least 20 to 30 mm of rain through the end of the week, some forecast models suggest that the region could see a widespread 25 to 50 mm.

Showers will taper off through the day on Friday with breezy northwest winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h. Winnipeg will likely see at least 20 to 30 mm by the time the rain tapers off, but there’s potential for amounts in the 30 to 40 mm range.1

Temperatures will be marginally warmer with a high near 14°C. Skies should finally clear out on Friday evening as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. The winds will taper off quickly on Friday evening then Winnipeg will head to a low temperature near 5°C.

Long Range Outlook

After a cool and wet week, conditions will change significantly this weekend as a large upper level ridge builds over central and eastern North America. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid-20s by the end of the weekend, then into the mid- to upper-20s to start next week. A deep southerly flow will advect Gulf moisture northwards, and the region could see humid conditions return to start next week with overnight lows climbing back into the upper teens.

The upper ridge is forecast to shift eastwards mid-week, allowing a large upper trough to push into the region, likely bringing unsettled conditions mid-week and a return to more seasonal conditions by the end of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7°C.

  1. Final amounts will depend on exactly where embedded convective bands of rain develop in this system. ↩