RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday July 4, 2019

Variable Cloudiness with Seasonal Temperatures

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The second half of the work week will bring variable cloudiness with seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg.

Winnipeg will see fairly cloudy conditions today and tonight, a result of a persistent southwesterly upper-level jet over the region. Several disturbances will move through the region, bringing plenty of cloud cover and a few showers. While Winnipeg will see the cloud, any rain – what little may fall – will likely stay south of the city. With the generally cloudy conditions, temperatures should climb to a high near 23°C in the city. The winds should stay light out of the west or southwest. Much of the cloud will stay in place tonight with lows dipping to around 13°C.

Thursday will bring mixed skies as the cloud cover slowly clears out of the region. With more sunshine, temperatures will end up a bit warmer with a high near 25°C. Winds will again be relatively light at 10 to 20 km/h out of the northwest. Skies should clear out on Thursday night with temperatures dropping to a low near 13°C again.

On Friday, a ridge of high pressure will begin building into the province. As it moves in, it will bring mainly sunny skies and a high temperature near 24°C. Winds will pick up out of the north into the 15 to 25 km/h range in the morning. The high will continue building into southern Manitoba on Friday night, bringing clear skies and a seasonably cool low near 9°C.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, upper-level ridging will begin developing as a cold low over the northern Prairies shunts off into eastern Canada. This will begin to push daytime highs back into the upper 20s with a developing southerly flow. With mostly sunny conditions expected on Saturday alongside the heat, the weekend looks set to bring some very pleasant summer weather!

On Sunday, things are forecast to become more unsettled as a train of shortwaves eject from an upper trough over the west coast and begin flattening the upper ridge. The first half of next week will likely bring several rounds of thunderstorm activity to the region, possibly every day between Sunday and Wednesday. Nocturnal convection is difficult to pin down at the best of times, so right now there’s no saying whether Winnipeg will see thunderstorms/rain or not. Just keep in mind that the possibility for them will begin to increase Sunday into the start of next week.

Before then, though, enjoy some relatively pleasant summer weather!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Beautiful Canada Day in Winnipeg

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Winnipeg will see a gorgeous Canada Day with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.

Before that cooler air mass arrives, though, Winnipeg will be celebrating Canada Day with another beautiful day! Temperatures will climb up to around 29°C today with a much lighter wind than yesterday. A weak high passing along the U.S. border will keep winds calm this morning, then they’ll pick up to around 20 km/h out of the southwest this afternoon. The winds will stay southerly at 10 to 20 km/h tonight as temperatures dip to a low near 15°C.

The city will have a chance of a thunderstorm late overnight into early Tuesday morning. It looks unlikely right now, but the risk is non-zero. A convective complex will develop along a cold front in southern Saskatchewan today and push eastwards towards the Manitoba border. The most likely scenario is that these storms will dissipate near the border as the upper-level support collapses overnight. If that doesn’t happen, though, there’s a chance that the storms could make it this far, giving Winnipeg a thunderstorm late overnight or early Tuesday morning.

Many modes show a line of thunderstorms across southern Saskatchewan this evening that will likely collapse as it approaches the Manitoba border.

The cold front will slow down as it moves across the Red River Valley, bringing partly cloudy skies and a continued chance of showers or thunderstorms until it moves through in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 23°C with 20 km/h southwesterly winds shifting northwest behind the cold front. The winds will diminish in the evening, then clouds will build into the region overnight. Winnipeg should see a low near 13°C, although it could be a tad warmer if the clouds move in earlier.

Wednesday will bring a mix of sun and cloud as a warm front pushes back northwards. A few showers or thunderstorms look likely over the southern Red River Valley, but indications are that Winnipeg will remain north of the precipitation. Temperatures will climb to a high near 23°C with southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h. Wednesday night looks to bring partly cloudy skies and a low near 13°C to the city.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the work week is forecast to bring variable cloudiness with near-seasonal temperatures. The chance for rain may increase heading into the weekend, but confidence is low. Lots of generally pleasant summer weather ahead!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Hot and Humid Conditions Ahead

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Temperatures will soar this weekend in Winnipeg as a hot and humid air mass moves in from the south.

A building upper ridge will push increasingly hot and humid conditions into southern Manitoba this weekend. The first push of heat will arrive today with the temperature climbing to around 30°C in Winnipeg. Skies will stay mostly sunny through the day with light winds. Tonight will be warm with a low near 18°C.

Saturday will be another hot day with increasing humidity. The city will see variable cloudiness through the day depending on (a) how much blow-off from overnight thunderstorms in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba moves through in the first half of the day, and (b) how much thunderstorm activity develops in the afternoon. Winnipeg should see a high near 31°C, but may be warmer or cooler depending on how much sunshine there is. Dew points will gradually climb through the day, reaching the mid- to upper-teens by the end of the afternoon. Combined with the warm temperatures, this will result in humidex values in the upper 30s.

  • Significant mid-level instability will develop over southern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon, shown by 700-500mb lapse rates ≥ 8°C/km.
  • While surface-based convection will struggle against a capping inversion, significant instability for elevated convection will be in place Saturday afternoon across southern Manitoba.

The thunderstorm threat for the day is largely conditional; a strong capping inversion will likely preclude any surface-based convection through the afternoon. There will be steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with strong dynamics that may support elevated convection, though. The first organized threat will be midday if any convection from Friday night manages to survive through the morning. Conditions should be more settled for the afternoon, then a risk for thunderstorms will redevelop late in the day. We recommend you view ECCC’s Thunderstorm Outlook on Saturday morning for the authoritative look at the day’s convective potential. You’ll be able to view it in our Bulletin Viewer.

The warm conditions continue on Saturday night as winds ease off and then turn northwesterly by Sunday morning. Winnipeg will see a low near 19°C.

Sunday will usher in drier conditions as breezy westerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h develop. Temperatures will again climb to around 30°C, but dew points will drop back into the single-digits, making for more comfortable conditions. Any leftover cloud in the morning will quickly clear out, leaving behind partly cloudy skies for the rest of the day. Temperatures will dip to a mild low near 17°C on Sunday night with winds easing.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring a fair amount of sunshine to the region with daytime highs generally in the 25 to 30°C range. No major precipitation events are forecast, however there may be one or two chances for thunderstorms through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

Summer Heat with Plenty of Sunshine

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Seasonably warm weather is on tap for Winnipeg through the rest of the week. The city will see plenty of sunshine until cloudier conditions arrive on Friday.

Today will bring almost a repeat of yesterday too Winnipeg. The city will see a sunny start to the day give way to partly cloudy skies midday. Temperatures will be warm again with a high near 28°C with westerly winds up to around 20 km/h. There will be a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, but it’s very slight. Almost all the activity today will occur along a trough of low pressure through the Interlake into western Manitoba. That said, keep an eye out just in case a rouge cell develops this afternoon. Skies will clear this evening as temperatures dip back to a low near 13°C.

Thursday will bring beautiful summer conditions to the city as a ridge of high pressure moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near 29°C under partly cloudy skies. Winds won’t be an issue either as the ridge keeps them light out of the north. Skies will remain partly cloudy on Thursday night with a low near 14°C.

Friday’s forecast has some uncertainty as it’s largely dependent on the evolution of a convective system on Thursday night. Right now, it looks like an area of thunderstorms will collapse near the Saskatchewan border on Friday morning. The clouds associated with this system will drift eastwards, spreading into the Red River Valley midday. Once they arrive, Winnipeg will see mixed to cloudy skies with temperatures climbing to a high near 26°C. The city will see mixed skies on Friday night with temperatures dropping to a low near 15°C.

If the convection develops differently on Thursday night and the city doesn’t see as much cloud as expected, temperatures will be warmer and could reach as high as 29 or 30°C.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness this weekend with a chance for showers or thunderstorms with the best chance on Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will be a hot weekend, too, with daytime highs in the low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.