More Warmth and Sunshine Ahead; Unsettled Weather Returns At End of Week

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Warm weather continues in Winnipeg for a couple more days, but unsettled conditions will develop on Friday into the weekend.

Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies today with temperatures climbing to a seasonably mild 26°C. Winds will be light for much of the day, then increase out of the south to around 20 km/h as a low pressure system approaches. The city will see a few clouds through the evening with a marginal chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. It looks unlikely that Winnipeg will see anything, but the potential is there. Temperatures will head to a low near 12°C overnight with clearing skies.

Thursday will be a gorgeous day across the region as the upper ridge begins building in. Temperatures will climb to a high near 26°C under sunny skies with light easterly winds. The wind will pick up overnight into the 20 to 30 km/h range out of the southeast as a developing low pressure system strengthens over Saskatchewan. These breezy winds will help keep temperatures warm with a low of just 16°C expected. By early Friday morning, some cloud will spread into the region along with a chance of a thunderstorm.

Very warm temperatures will move into southern Manitoba on Friday.
Very warm temperatures will move into southern Manitoba on Friday.

For Friday, a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern over the Prairies will drive the weather. This upper flow will result in the gradual strengthening of a slow-moving low pressure system near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. For Winnipeg, that means a breezy southerly flow tapping into hot air mass over the northern Plains. With winds in the 30 to 40 km/h range, temperatures will climb to a high near 30°C under a mix of sun and cloud. The city may see a chance for a thunderstorm early in the day, then the chance redevelops for Friday night. Temperatures will stay warm on Friday night, dropping only to around 20°C with southerly winds continuing.

Long Range Outlook

Early indications show a rather unsettled weekend for Winnipeg. Friday’s low near the SK/MB border will stall over the province, bringing several chances for rain or thunderstorms to the city through the weekend. The weekend will start warm, but should cool towards seasonal temperatures for Sunday. Next week looks to bring settled conditions with near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.

Summer Arrives

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Summer finally arrives in Winnipeg this week with seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures in place right through the week.

An approaching low will spread heat and southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h through the region. Much of the day will bring partly cloudy skies to the city as temperatures soar to a high near 29°C. Notably different from other warmth so far this year will be the humidity; by the afternoon, dew points will climb into the mid-teens. While it won’t feel humid per-say, it will be a noticeable difference from when temperatures reached 30°C last Thursday. The chance for thunderstorms will develop mid- to late afternoon and persist overnight as the low pressure centre approaches. Temperatures will stay warm on Tuesday night with a low near 18°C.

Daytime highs on Monday will climb into the upper 20s and low 30s across much of south-central and southwest Manitoba.
Daytime highs on Monday will climb into the upper 20s and low 30s across much of south-central and southwest Manitoba.

The low will move through the Red River Valley on Tuesday morning, bringing mixed skies northwesterly winds. By midday, the city will be under mixed to mainly sunny skies with northerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h. These northerly winds will clear the skies and usher in a drier air mass the afternoon. Temperatures should reach a high near 26°C midday then cool to around 21°C by the evening. Winds will ease in the evening and Winnipeg will have a pleasant night: clear skies, light winds, and a low near 12°C.

Dew points will climb into the mid-teens on Monday afternoon, bringing the first notable humdiity of the year to the region. Drier air will return through Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dew points will climb into the mid-teens on Monday afternoon, bringing the first notable humdiity of the year to the region. Drier air will return through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday will see a high pressure system pass by to the south. It should keep winds light with a few clouds through the day. Temperatures will be warm again, though, with a high near 27 or 28°C. Another low pressure system moving through Saskatchewan will lift a warm front northwards through the province overnight. As it moves through, it will bring a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms to Winnipeg overnight.

Technical Thunderstorm Discussion

There is a widespread thunderstorm threat over the southeastern Prairies today. Although many ingredients are in place, the overall situation is conditional. Going over the MIST ingredients:

  • Moisture: Dew point values are forecast to rise into the mid-teens. There is a bit of uncertainty in this as dew points have been trending below model forecasts lately. That said, yesterday evening a pool of 15°C dew points was in place over western South Dakota. With the low-level jet continuing advection overnight, it seems likely that dew points should rise substantially towards forecasted values as the day progresses.
  • Instability: These dew points are forecast to produce MLCAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg over SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba this afternoon. This instability will spread eastwards into the Red River Valley this afternoon. The instability will continue overnight with forecast MUCAPE values near 1000 J/kg spreading into the southeastern corner of the province.
  • Shear: Weak upper-level winds will limit shear in areas of greatest CAPE; only ~15 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear is forecast. Closer to the warm frontal boundary, strengthening upper-level winds increase the shear into the 30 to 35 kt range. Shear profiles are generally veering and would support primarily multicell thunderstorms.
  • Trigger: The warm front will be the primary area of focus, but strong capping will likely delay initiation until evening. Broad destabilization over southwestern Manitoba as the low approaches may trigger surface-based convection, but the storms may struggle to organize due to the lower shear values and poor ventilation aloft.

The best chance for thunderstorms looks to be over western and southwestern Manitoba this afternoon. These thunderstorms may be with the potential for some marginally severe thunderstorms. Heading into the evening, some of the activity will spread into the Red River Valley. It will likely become less extensive as the night progresses. The threat for severe thunderstorms will diminish as the night goes on.

Long Range Outlook

After Wednesday, Winnipeg will see the warm weather continue, but skies will be variable as several disturbances make their way through. These will bring several chances for showers or thunderstorms to the city that may persist right into the weekend. At least overnight lows will stay in the low to mid-teens and those chilly mornings will be a memory of the past by then!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.

Breezy Conditions With Seasonably Cool Temperatures Ahead

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Winnipeg will say goodbye to the hazy skies and seasonably warm temperatures as a cold front ushers an Arctic ridge back into the region for the weekend.

Breezy northerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h behind will bring markedly cooler temperatures to Winnipeg today. After reaching 30.4°C yesterday, the city will find itself over 10°C cooler with a high of just 18°C. Skies will be sunny, but it’s likely that we’ll see some haze in the morning as forest fire smoke moves through. The winds will ease off this evening as temperatures head to a rather cool low near 4°C under clear skies.

Temperatures will be even slightly cooler on Saturday as the Arctic ridge builds into the region. Winnipeg will see a high of 17°C with breezy northerly winds picking back up in the morning under sunny skies. With the ridge moving through on Saturday night, temperatures will cool off to another cool low near +3°C.

Sunday will be pleasant with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures will start to recover; Winnipeg should see a high around 20°C. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southeast on Sunday night as a low pressure system over Alberta begins to push eastwards across the Prairies.

Long Range Outlook

The heat returns next week with highs climbing back into the upper 20s to start the week. This weather pattern will differ from the heat on the weekend; instead of a dry westerly flow, southerly winds in the low level will begin pulling humidity northwards out of the American Plains. With disturbances cross the region being able to tap into some moisture, it’s likely that Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness with chances for showers or thunderstorms.

The warm weather looks to continue right through the week. Summer arrives! This also means that Winnipeg will likely be entering into the start of the summer severe weather season over the next week or two. We’d like to remind our readers that you can access Environment & Climate Change Canada’s official thunderstorm outlook product on our bulletin viewer. This product updates twice a day: first for “today” during the early morning, then for “tomorrow” in the afternoon. It’s a great resource for finding out what sort of thunderstorm activity may occur in your area!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 8°C.

Summer Heat Arrives, Smoke Tags Along

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A push of warmer temperatures into Manitoba will send daytime highs soaring into the upper 20s today. Joining the warmth will be hazy skies as smoke from the northern Alberta forest fires moves in as well.

Winnipeg’s driving weather feature over the coming days will be an upper high shifting from northern Alberta to the Dakotas. It will have 2 major impacts for the region: warmer temperatures and smoke. First: the smoke.

As the upper high slumps southeastwards, the flow aloft will turn northwesterly. This will spread large amounts of smoke from the forest fires over northern Alberta across Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba. This smoke will be noticeable over the next few days, both aloft and as hazy conditions near the ground. If you have sensitivities to air quality be sure to keep an eye on the forecast AQHI values. Exactly when the smoke clears depends on how the large-scale weather pattern evolves near the end of the week. At this point it looks like there will still be some smoke and haze present on Friday with improvement on Saturday.

At sunset yesterday, a large plume of smoke over Alberta and Saskatchewan could is visible spreading into western Manitoba.
At sunset yesterday, a large plume of smoke over Alberta and Saskatchewan could is visible spreading into western Manitoba.

With the smoke out of the way, that leaves temperatures. While the smoke makes forecasting exact daytime highs tricky, this upper high will spread a hot air mass over part of the province. Temperatures will quickly climb into the mid-20’s by lunch today, then continue on to a high near 28°C this afternoon. Temperatures will stay warm tonight with a low near 13°C. Thursday will be another hot day with a high near 27°C. A cold front will push through on Friday morning, sending temperatures back to near-seasonal values to end the week.

Through all this, Winnipeg should see plenty of sunshine, albeit dimmed somewhat by the smoke. It doesn’t appear that Winnipeg will see any meaningful chances for rain, despite some cloud in the area Thursday morning as a warm front wavers through the region. The passage of the cold front also looks dry for Winnipeg.

Hot temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s will be in place across the southern Prairies today and Thursday.
Hot temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s will be in place across the southern Prairies today and Thursday.

Winds will be light today, only picking up out of the north to around 15-20 km/h this afternoon and remaining light and variable on Thursday. On Friday, the wind will pick up out of the north to around 30 gusting 50 km/h behind the passage of the warm front in the morning.

Long Range Outlook

This weekend will bring more sunshine to Winnipeg with the smoke likely clearing out on Saturday. On Sunday, the warm weather will come surging back into the province with daytime highs climbing into the upper 20s again. This time, it doesn’t look like smoke will affect southern Manitoba; the upper flow will be more westerly than northwesterly, keeping the smoke further north.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 8°C.