RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Monday July 15, 2019

Summer Heat And Occasional Showers Ahead

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Winnipeg may see a few showers or thunderstorms today and Wednesday, but the summer heat and relatively humid conditions continue.

The warm and humid weather continues this morning, but relief is on the way. Winnipeg may see a thunderstorm to start the day, but it’s dependent on where the overnight activity decides to move. Most guidance suggests the line will remain north of the city, but there’s a small chance that some new thunderstorms will develop along the southern end of the line. After that passes this morning, the region will see a mainly sunny morning with mixed skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb back up to 29 or 30°C with humid conditions continuing. A weak cold front will sweep through late in the day, bringing another chance of showers or thunderstorms to the city.

Winds will gradually turn northwesterly and strengthen to around 30 km/h through the day today, then ease in the evening. Winnipeg will see partly cloudy skies tonight as temperatures drop to around 17°C.

Tuesday will bring increasing cloudiness in the afternoon as the next low pressure system approaches. While still noticeable, the humidity will be a bit lower and comfortable as climb to a high near 26°C. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Tuesday night with a small chance of showers. Temperatures will dip to a low near 17°C again.

While still humid, Tuesday will bring some relief from the humidity in place over the region on Sunday and Monday.
While still humid, Tuesday will bring some relief from the humidity in place over the region on Sunday and Monday.

Unsettled weather returns on Wednesday as a low pressure system crosses the province. The showers or thunderstorms are likely, particularly heading into the afternoon. Early indications are that much of the Red River Valley will see 5 to 15 mm, but the convective nature of the rain will mean some places see more, and some less, than that. All the cloud cover will mean cooler temperatures with a high near 23°C in Winnipeg. The rain should taper off by evening leaving partly cloudy skies overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Thursday will likely bring mixed skies and another small chance of thunderstorms, then a big pattern change moves in. While temperatures won’t cool down too much, a much drier air mass is forecast to move into the region. The weekend should bring highs in the mid- to upper 20s and plenty of sunshine!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Another Brief Reprieve Before Heat & Humidity Return

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Winnipeg will see a one-day break before heat and humidity builds back in for the weekend.

Conditions will be calm, comfortable, and quiet in Winnipeg today. A ridge of high pressure will move into the region today behind a cold front that passed through overnight. This ridge will bring plenty of sunshine to the region as temperatures climb to a high near 24°C. A northwesterly wind near 20 km/h will persist through much of the day, then diminish through the evening. Skies will stay fairly clear tonight as temperatures drop to a low near 16°C.

Heading into the weekend, a weak upper-level ridge will usher heat and humidity back into the region. For both Saturday and Sunday, daytime highs will climb to 29 or 30°C and overnight lows near 20°C. The humidity will build on Saturday with dew points climbing into the upper teens. For Sunday, dew points will rise back to the 20°C mark, similar to Thursday afternoon. The humid conditions will result in Humidex values in the mid-30s. Winds will be light out of the south on Saturday at around 15 km/h, but pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range on Sunday.

Very humid conditions are forecast to re-develop over southern Manitoba on Sunday through Sunday night.
Very humid conditions are forecast to re-develop over southern Manitoba on Sunday through Sunday night.

As far as active weather goes, the city will see a few chances for thunderstorms. The first will be on Saturday afternoon as a warm front pushes through the region. The second will be Sunday morning as an area of nocturnal convection moves through the region. Both are highly conditional, so be sure to stay tuned for any watches or warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada through the weekend.

All in all prepare for a hot and muggy weekend with variable cloudiness and a couple chances for thunderstorms!

Long Range Outlook

Next week looks to bring seasonably warm conditions with slightly less humidity. The muggiest air will clear out on Monday with the chance for more thunderstorms. Then the remainder of the week will bring daytime highs in the 27 to 30°C range with overnight lows of 17 to 20°C. The city will likely see plenty of sun, but the overall pattern is slightly unsettled. As a result, there will likely be several chances of thunderstorms through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Sunshine Returns with Chance of Thunderstorms on Thursday

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Winnipeg will see plenty of sun through the rest of the week, but humid weather returns on Thursday with another round of thunderstorms possible.

Today will bring sunshine back to the region with northwesterly winds help get things drying out after yesterday’s deluge. After the chance of a few morning showers, skies should clear out and temperatures will climb to a high near 25°C for the afternoon. The winds will diminish this evening, leaving the city with a few clouds as temperatures head to a low near 13°C.

The settled weather won’t last long, though. Another low pressure system will move into the region from the west on Thursday. Ahead of the low, humid conditions will once again develop and temperatures will climb to a high near 28°C. Skies will be mixed through the day with moderate southerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h developing in the afternoon.

Very humid conditions will develop over southern Manitoba on Thursday afternoon. Dew point values are forecast to climb above 20°C.
Very humid conditions will develop over southern Manitoba on Thursday afternoon. Dew point values are forecast to climb above 20°C.

Thunderstorms will initiate in the afternoon over WestMan into the Interlake in the afternoon, then move southeastwards. The storms will likely enter the Red River Valley near 6-7 PM and push through over the next couple hours. The main threat from these thunderstorms will be large hail and damaging winds, but the humid conditions will also support heavy rainfall. Shortly after the trough moves through, a weaker cold front will slump south through the region. There may be a few showers or isolated thunderstorms along the front as it passes, but it will carry no severe weather threat. The cold front will move through after midnight leaving behind mixed skies as temperatures dip to a low near 16°C.

The city will see partly cloudy skies on Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through the region. Temperatures should reach a high near 24°C and humidity levels should be more comfortable. Winds will be light out of the northwest. Friday night will be pleasant with a low near 13°C under clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend is looking warm with highs approaching 30°C and increasing humidity. As a result, overnight lows will also be warm, likely close to the 20°C mark. Winnipeg is not forecast to get any rain, but disturbances will pass to the south and the north of the city so there will be a low chance of a passing shower or two.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Severe Thunderstorm Threat To Start the Week

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Winnipeg’s week will start off with hot and humid conditions developing ahead of a trough of low pressure. As it moves into the region, it will bring a risk of severe thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon. Unsettled conditions will continue through Tuesday before settling for Wednesday.

Today’s main weather-maker will be a trough of low pressure slowly working into the region. To start the day, the city might see some showers or thunderstorms if the overnight convection that started in Saskatchewan makes it this far. Then, temperatures will rise into the upper 20s through the morning with increasingly humid conditions. As the trough slumps southwards this afternoon, it will bring a broad severe thunderstorm threat to the region. The hot and humid conditions will provide ample energy for thunderstorms, the trough will focus development, and winds will be aligned in a way that will support long-lived thunderstorms. All manners of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and into the evening. Be sure to stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada.

ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.
ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.

You can view Environment and Climate Change Canada’s thunderstorm outlook and discussion for today in our Bulletin Viewer.

The thunderstorm threat will persist into the evening with the thunderstorm activity moving out of the province near midnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near 19°C with light winds.

Showers or thunderstorms are on the way for much of the Red River Valley on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the American border. Temperatures will be cooler near 23°C, but the humid conditions will stay in place. The city will see light northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h through the day. Heading into the night, the city will still see a good chance for showers. As the low moves off to the east, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 gusting 50 km/h and persist into Wednesday morning. Winnipeg should see a low near 16°C with some of the humidity easing overnight.

The city will see a chance for showers Wednesday morning, then skies will clear midday leaving the city with plenty of sun. Temperatures will climb to a high near 24 or 25°C with winds easing to around 20 km/h in the afternoon. The winds will usher the humidity out, making for more comfortable conditions in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C on Wednesday night with a few clouds and light winds.

While many parts of the Red River Valley will appreciate rain, it’s always difficult to pinpoint where – and how much – any one place will get when dealing with convective systems like these. That said, it seems possible that several areas may see 15 to 35 mm of rain by Wednesday morning. Locally, some areas could see less or more depending on how exactly the convection develops.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week will bring daytime highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-teens. Another low pressure passing through on Thursday night will bring another chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region. Looking towards the weekend, Saturday looks quite nice, but by Sunday hot and unstable conditions are forecast to return to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.