Wintery Mix of Snow, Freezing Rain, and Rain Possible on Sunday in Southern Manitoba

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A slow-changing weather pattern over Winnipeg will continue to bring daytime highs near the freezing mark and mixed to cloudy skies. By Sunday, though, an approaching low could bring a wintery mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain to southern Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday November 5, 2023
Temperatures will hover near or above the freezing mark over the next few days.

Today will start with some cloud moving through the Red River Valley as a weak front slumps into the region. In its wake, light northerly winds will accompany clearing skies. Some cloud will persist through the day as lake-effect flurries stream off lakes Manitoba and Winnipeg, but the wind direction should favour them flanking Winnipeg rather than moving through the city.

Temperatures will climb up to a high around 0 °C today, then dip to a low in the -5 to -10 °C range tonight.

Heading into the weekend, warmer air will attempt to build into the region. Rather than seeing any notable warm-up, as it often is this time of year, the region instead will be blanketed in cloud. Winds will shift southerly and ease further on Saturday with cloudy skies in the Red River Valley. The remnants of a collapsing low pressure system could bring some light snow to the region on Saturday afternoon.

On Saturday night, a low pressure system developing in Alberta will eject eastwards across Saskatchewan. Winds in the Red River Valley will shift eastwards overnight in response along with a low chance of some light snow. Temperatures will only drop a few degrees from Saturday’s daytime high.

On Sunday, a wintery mix of precipitation will push into Manitoba ahead of the approaching low in Saskatchewan. The day will likely start with some rain and/or freezing rain spreading through southern Manitoba while snow pushes through the Parkland into the Interlake. As the day progresses, the freezing rain will diminish while the rain/snow line lifts northwards. Daytime highs should reach around +2 °C on Sunday afternoon.

RDPS Forecast Precipitation Type/Rate valid 18Z Sunday November 5, 2023
Southern Manitoba may see a wintery mix of precipitation on Sunday, including freezing rain.

By the end of the day, the low centre will cross through the Red River Valley, followed by northerly winds and the rain/snow line collapsing southwards as the precipitation tapers off overnight. The freezing rain potential in southern Manitoba will largely be confined to the morning, and while conditions could be poor while it’s occurring, the subsequent climb above freezing with temperatures should limit the longevity of its impact. If you have plans to travel on Sunday morning, be prepared for adverse travel conditions and be sure to check highway conditions before leaving.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will stay comparatively mild next week with daytime highs likely creeping to the positive side of freezing through the week. Some flurries will be possible, but the next organized precipitation event will likely be with a low pressure complex moving through the region mid-week.

This system could bring another wintery mix of precipitation to southern Manitoba as it passes through.

Don’t expect to see the sun too much; skies will be mainly cloudy this week. Some more organized sunshine could begin to move back into the region in the latter half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

Cool Weather Continues in Winnipeg

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A stagnant weather pattern will continue to funnel Arctic air southwards into the Prairies, continuing the cool temperatures across southern Manitoba.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday November 1, 2023.
It will be a cool night across southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure slides through the region.

A slow-moving vortex over Hudson Bay continues to support an outbreak of Arctic air across the eastern Prairies this week. Between this system and a high-amplitude upper ridge over the west coast, northerly winds through the region will be maintained for a few more days yet.

As a result, temperatures will stay stuck below seasonal values. Today will be the coldest day of the week, the cold air bolstered by the passage of a disturbance yesterday. The high in Winnipeg should reach around -6 °C with temperatures dipping to about -8 to -10 °C by the time kids start heading out to prowl the neighbourhoods for Halloween.

Heading through the rest of the work week, the city will see daytime highs close to the freezing mark and overnight lows dipping into the -5 to -10 °C range. Skies will be mixed over the coming days and winds, aside from a bit of a breeze this evening, will be light.

No notable snowfall is expected, but a few light flurries could be possible through the week.

Long Range Outlook

Little change is expected to the pattern beyond weakening slightly in the days ahead. This will mean that daytime highs should continue to hover at or just below freezing into next week along with overnight lows dipping below -5 °C.

There are some early indications that some snow may be possible early next week; we’ll continue to keep an eye on that system as it develops.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -5 °C.

Cool Conditions Ahead for Winnipeg

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The broad pattern change that began this week will establish itself by the weekend, bringing a prolonged period of seasonably cool conditions to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday October 28, 2023
Seasonably cool temperatures will flood the Prairies this weekend with daytime highs below freezing in most places.

The weather pattern across southern Manitoba will be dominated by a slow-moving upper trough extending from an Arctic vortex over Canada’s eastern Arctic. This will ensure a pipeline of cooler air sourced from the Arctic sits pointed at the region right into next week, delivery seasonably cool temperatures to the area.

It will be mainly cloudy in Winnipeg today with some morning snow tapering off as a disturbance tracks off the the east. In its wake, northerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h will pump cooler air southwards, supporting bands of lake-effect flurries off of both Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg. This will result in a few flurries lingering through the day, as well as some more concentrated bands of snow in the lee of the lakes. Temperatures will climb to around the freezing mark, then dip down into the -5 to -10 °C overnight as skies clear.

Sunnier skies will return for Saturday with highs in the -5 to 0 °C range with southwesterly winds in the 20 to 30 km/h range. A bit of cloud will push back into the region on Saturday night, but lows will still dip down close to -10 °C.

On Sunday, there will likely be a bit more cloud around with just a slight chance of some flurries. Temperatures will again climb into the -5 to 0 °C range with westerly winds again near 20 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

Highs will likely bounce back to the freezing mark on Monday with a passing disturbance that will also bring some light snow to the region, then cooler weather returns for the rest of the week with highs in the -5 to 0 °C range and overnight lows closer to -10 °C.

For Halloween, it’s looking like it will be a partly cloudy day with a cool high near -5 °C. By the time kids start heading out in the evening, temperatures will likely have dipped into the -5 to -10 °C range with southwest winds near 15 km/h.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -3 °C.

Lovely Fall Weather Continues

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Seasonably mild temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba in what has been a pleasant fall so far.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday October 17, 2023
An approaching low pressure system will bring very mild late-October temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

A low pressure system advancing towards the province will bring some cloud cover and mild weather to Winnipeg today. With skies becoming mixed this morning, temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper teens this afternoon.

The low will begin moving through the region this evening, bringing with it a chance of rain showers. The heaviest rain will likely end up southeast of Winnipeg with amounts near 5 to 10 mm. Amounts will quickly drop off to the northwest of this; Winnipeg will sit along the edge, but at least a couple millimetres of rain seems likely. It will be a warm night with a low near 10 °C.

On Wednesday, northerly winds will pick up behind the low as any lingering showers move out of the region. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid-teens with northerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h. Skies will take their time clearing out, but Winnipeg will likely see a bit of sun before evening.

A ridge of high pressure will move through the province on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will allow temperatures to dip into the -5 to 0 °C range on Wednesday night. On Thursday,  temperatures will bounce back into the mid-teens again as another push of warmer air moves in from the west. A weak low will slide through the region on Thursday night, bringing with it another chance for some light rain showers.

Long Range Outlook

Friday will mark the start of a gradual transition of southern Manitoba’s weather into a cooler, more unsettled pattern. On the back side of Thursday night’s low, cooler temperatures will gradually slump into the Prairies from the Arctic. As this cold front pushes south over the next week, disturbances will ripple northeastwards ahead and along it, bringing waves of rain or snow to the Prairies.

This will result in variable cloudiness turning mainly cloudy next week and gradually cooling temperatures in Winnipeg. There will be a chance of some rain on Saturday, as well as a more organized chance of accumulating rain early next week. By mid-week, lake-effect rain showers will likely return to southern Manitoba.

Daytime highs will cool to the 0 to 5 °C range with overnight lows well below freezing through this period. The region could also see some of the first snowflakes of the season late next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -1 °C.