Warmer Weather Finally Arrives

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Warmer temperatures have finally arrived in southern Manitoba and they’re going to stick around for a while.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Monday February 24, 2025
By Sunday evening, westerly winds will usher above-freezing temperatures into the Red River Valley.

The weakening lobe of the Polar Vortex that was entrenched over the region has finally weakened and quickly tracked out of the country. In its wake, two main pattern changes are underway: the Polar Vortex is re-strengthening further north over Canada’s High Arctic and upper ridging is building into western Canada.

These two changes will result in a major change in the weather over southern Manitoba. The most pronounced, obvious change will be a massive shift towards warmer weather.

Temperatures will climb into the -10 to -5 °C range this afternoon as breezy morning southerlies ease midday. The Winnipeg area will see mixed skies today as morning sun gives way to afternoon clouds as a warm front pushes towards the region. Temperatures will continue to climb tonight, reaching around -5 °C by Saturday morning.

This weekend’s weather will be shaped by a low pressure system that will develop in northern Alberta on Saturday. It will reach northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by Sunday evening with a warm front that drops south towards the Red River Valley.

This will bring more cloud to the area this weekend as daytime highs climb to around 0 °C. Winds won’t be too much of an issue this weekend either as they shift to the south and increase into the 15 to 25 km/h range. Overnight lows will warm into the -5 to 0 °C range by Sunday night.

There will be a slight chance of mixed precipitation on Sunday, though a feed of drier air from the south could eat away at anything that tries to fall over Winnipeg or areas south.

Long Range Outlook

The first half of next week will bring mild weather, then the region will shift towards seasonal values in the second half. Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness through the week; a train of weak disturbances will slide through every couple days, bringing a chance for a wintery mix of precipitation. At this point, no significant accumulations of snow or rain are expected in the Red River Valley next week, save for a chance of 4 to 8 cm of snow near the end of the week.

Looking further ahead, the long-range pattern looks to favour near-seasonal temperatures with no major storms on the horizon.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -17 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBwx #awm_above_normal_temperatures

Arctic Grip Weakens Over Southern Manitoba

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The bitter cold that’s been entrenched in the region for over a week will finally give way with temperatures gradually warming to above-seasonal values.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday February 19, 2025
Although change is on the way, it will be cold across the southern Prairies on Wednesday morning.

Winnipeg’s weather is in for a change this week as a lobe of the Polar Vortex exits the region. It will weaken substantially over the next couple days, then rapidly shift east out of the country through the second half of the week.

As a result, there will be little change through the first half of the week, and substantial change in the second.

Over the next few days, as the weakened portion of the polar vortex dissipates, temperatures will gradually rise. By Thursday, daytime highs in Winnipeg will increase from near -20 °C to the mid-minus teens. Overnight lows will follow, rising from the -30 to -25 °C range into the minus teens.

A sprawling (and weakening) Arctic high will dominate the surface pattern, bringing sunshine and light west-northwest winds.

Long Range Outlook

While Thursday will mark the beginning of a pattern change, it will become more pronounced to end the week. The remnants of the Polar Vortex will rapidly shunt east, allowing an upper ridge to build into the Prairies from the Pacific. This will push much milder air across the region, sending daytime highs well above seasonal normals.

Daytime highs will climb to near-seasonal values on Friday, then warm closer to 0 °C on the weekend. For areas west of the Red River Valley, above-freezing temperatures are probable; we’ll have to wait to see how much mild air is able to scour into the Red River Valley to see how warm Winnipeg is able to get.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Sunday February 23, 2025
Much warmer weather will sweep across the Prairies this weekend, with daytime highs climbing to 0 °C or higher for most regions.

The above-seasonal temperatures will continue right through next week.

With this change, the region will shift closer to the storm track. No major systems are expected, but occasional bouts of light snow or even a wintery mix will be possible beginning this weekend and through much of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

#wx_below_seasonal_temperatures #wx_above_seasonal_temperatures
#Winnipeg #MBwx

Cold Weather Ahead

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An Arctic ridge strengthening over southern Manitoba will bring bitterly cold weather to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Sunday February 16, 2025
Bitter cold will build into the Prairies this weekend.

The weather this weekend in the Winnipeg area will be influenced by three different weather systems. The first is an Arctic ridge re-strengthening across southern Manitoba, the second is a disturbance that will track across the northern United States, and the third is a low that will drop south out of Nunavut.

The Arctic ridge will bring colder weather to the Winnipeg area. Daytime highs will drop from the -20 to -15 °C range today into the -25 to -20 °C range this weekend. Likewise, overnight lows will dip from the -30 to -25 °C range down into the -35 to -30 °C range. These colder temperatures will combine with winds of 10 to 25 km/h and give wind chill values of -45 to -40 at times.

The other two features will bring cloud cover to the region. The disturbance passing to the south will bring mixed skies to the region today and on Saturday. Skies will clear on Saturday night, then mixed skies will redevelop on Sunday as the Nunavut low drops south.

A few flurries are possible on Sunday as the low passes through, but no accumulating snow is expected.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring a major change to the weather pattern in the region, but it will be in the latter half of the week. Temperatures will gradually shift to seasonal values through the first half of the week as the Arctic high in the region slowly drops south into the United States. In the second half of the week, the Polar Vortex will re-focus over the High Arctic while a lobe drops south into the United States. This will allow upper ridging to build east into the Prairies and send Pacific air back into the region.

This will allow temperatures to begin pushing back towards seasonal values by the end of the week, followed by the chance for daytime highs that climb above 0 °C on the weekend.

The above-normal temperature pattern looks like it should hold through the rest of February once it gets established. This may put Winnipeg back on the storm track and give a chance of mixed wintery precipitation from time to time.

The return of warmer weather and longer days will help it feel a lot more spring-like by next weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

Cold Week Ahead for Winnipeg

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With Arctic air firmly entrenched over the Prairies, the weather will be relatively quiet and cold for Winnipeg.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday February 12, 2025
Very cold Arctic air with temperatures as low as the -30s will sit over the Prairies this week.

The forecast for this week will be a pretty straightforward one; little change is expected across the region through the work week. Arctic air will remain in place over the area, bringing cool daytime highs generally near -20 °C — perhaps a degree or two warmer at times — and overnight lows dipping down into the low -20s or the -30s. Wind chill values of -30 to -40 will be common through the week, with the change that some nights will bring wind chill values of -45 to -40, which would qualify for extreme cold warnings from the Meteorological Service of Canada.

The wind will be light out of the south at 10 to 20 km/h today, then shift to light and variable on Wednesday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the region. It will exit later Wednesday and bring light northwest winds back to the area. Winds will then shift to the south and pick up into the 10 to 20 km/h range on Thursday as a surface high passes to the south and a weak low pushes towards western Manitoba.

Little weather will impact the region this week. The Winnipeg area will see sunny skies today, followed by some cloud cover on Wednesday as the trough moves through. Skies should clear up Wednesday night bringing sunshine back to the region for much of Thursday. Some cloud may begin to push in late in the day as that low pressure system nudges into the province.

When there is cloud cover, there’s a chance that the region could see some light snow or ice crystals; no notable accumulating snow is expected this week though.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, another Arctic high will gradually shift across the Prairies. This will bring northwest to westerly winds with clearing skies. Temperatures will stay cold with similar temperatures through the weekend as seen during the week.

So it’s cold and quiet weather ahead. Fortunately it’s not as intense a deep-freeze as sometimes…I’ll take highs near -20 °C over those ruthless cold snaps where we barely reach -27 °C. That said, the nights will be cold and there will be little relief likely until the last week of February. Stay warm!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.