Seasonal Temperatures With Unsettled Conditions

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Winnipeg will see seasonal temperatures in the mid-20s this week, but several passing disturbances will bring chances of showers or thunderstorms to the region.

RDPS 24-hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday August 23, 2023
Most of the organized shower activity on Tuesday will spread across the central Prairies, but a few showers are also possible further south in southern Manitoba.

Today will be another cooler day in Winnipeg as easterly winds undercut moisture streaming over the province in the upper-level flow. The city will see easterly winds around the 20 km/h mark much of the day. Skies will likely be cloudy through the day, but a few sunny breaks are possible in the Red River Valley and southeast corner of the province. North of the city in the Interlake, showers are likely through much of the day, while further south the best chances will be early in the morning, then again in the late afternoon. A few thundershowers may be embedded within these showers.

The showers will taper off this evening as the winds diminish and temperatures head to a low in the mid-teens. Skies will stay mainly cloudy overnight as the next disturbance approaches the region.

On Wednesday will be another cloudy day in Winnipeg. Showers and/or thunderstorms will likely push into the southwest corner of the province early in the day, then gradually spread eastwards through the day. By mid-afternoon, the chance of showers or thunderstorms will begin to increase in the Red River Valley. This activity will slump southeastwards through the evening and exit the province overnight. Temperatures will head down to a low in the upper teens on Wednesday night.

On Thursday, a bit of sun will return to the region, but cloud will push back in later in the day as another disturbance pushes towards the region from Alberta. More showers or thunderstorms will develop near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border late in the day and then gradually spread eastwards through the evening. This will bring a chance of thunderstorms or showers to Winnipeg overnight, with a slight chance of showers lingering into Friday morning. The city will see the overnight low dip down into the mid-teens.

Regarding daytime highs, much of the week will bring near-seasonal highs in the low to mid-20s.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, an upper ridge will begin to re-establish itself over the Prairies, bringing more settled conditions. Sunnier weather looks likely for the weekend with daytime highs climbing towards the upper 20s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Cool, Showery Weekend Ahead

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An upper low crossing the Prairies this weekend will keep temperatures cool in southern Manitoba with some showers or thunderstorms likely in the days ahead.

RDPS 12-hour Precipitation Accumulation valid 00Z Saturday August 12, 2023
Rainfall will be scattered throughout southern Manitoba today as showers and thunderstorms develop over the region.

A weak low pressure system will move across southern Manitoba today, the lingering feature from the system that brought 5 to 10 mm of rain to Winnipeg yesterday evening. As this low trundles into the Red River Valley this afternoon, it will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is unlikely; energy will be limited with only 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and bulk shear is also low at only around 15 to 20 knots. A marginally severe thunderstorm with large hail can’t be ruled out, but much of the area will mainly see the chance of showers and shorter-lived pulse thunderstorms.

Much of the activity will taper off in the evening, but a few showers may linger into the night, supported by both a shortwave sliding across the region and a weak trough extending from southern Manitoba northwestwards into central Saskatchewan.

On Saturday, the region will continue to see mixed skies with a slight chance of showers. Much less activity is expected than on Friday; there will be few, if any, features to support and organize showers. A bit of lingering instability may be left behind, but for the most part, mixed skies with just a slight chance of an isolated shower or two is most likely.

On Sunday, another low pressure system is poised to dive southeastwards through the province, bringing a good chance of rain to many parts of southern Manitoba. Some uncertainty remains on the track, but in general areas south of a line that runs roughly from Dauphin to the Whiteshell are likely to see accumulating rain at some point from early Sunday morning through the end of the day.

Temperatures over the next three days will be steady in the 20 to 25 °C while winds will generally be on the lighter side. Winds both today and tomorrow will mainly be westerly, while the passing low will shift the winds more northerly on Sunday.

Long-Range Outlook

It’s looking like unsettled conditions will continue into next week. Monday should bring a reprieve from any wet weather, but the chance of rain will return several times through the rest of the week. Winnipeg’s daytime highs and lows will sit at near-seasonal values through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Pleasant Summer Weekend Ahead

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An area of high pressure building into Manitoba will bring pleasant summer conditions to southern Manitoba this weekend with a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two.

RDPS 500mb Height and Wind Speed Forecast valid 21Z Sunday July 30, 2023
An upper ridge will begin to develop over the Prairies by the end of the weekend, spreading warm weather through the region.

To end the work week in Winnipeg and area, northerly winds behind a cold front will bring seasonably cool temperatures to the area. With gradually clearing skies, temperatures will climb to a high around the 20 °C mark this afternoon. Those northerly winds will ease from around 20 km/h today to light this evening, followed by temperatures dipping to a low near 10 °C.

On Saturday, warmer weather will return to the region with highs back into the mid-20s. Some cloud will develop in the afternoon as a weak upper trough swings across the region; some showers will be possible on Saturday night as it moves through. Winds will be light on Saturday night as an area of high pressure moves in. Temperatures will dip down to the low teens overnight.

On Sunday, warm weather returns with highs climbing back into the upper 20s under sunny skies. A few locations may even see temperatures reach the low 30s. Humidity won’t be an issue, making for a great day to enjoy some time outside.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will kick off with another beautiful day on Monday; daytime highs will again sit in the upper 20s under partly cloudy skies. More humidity arrives Monday night, though, and with it will come variable cloudiness and the chance of showers or thunderstorms. Unsettled conditions are possible, particularly in the late overnight or early morning through mid-week, then more settled conditions should return for the end of the week as the humidity across the region eases.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Warm Summer Weather Ahead, But Smokier Conditions This Weekend

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Winnipeg will see warm summer temperatures over the next few days with plenty of sunshine for the weekend, but wildfire smoke will make a reappearance.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday July 22, 2023
Warm temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba this weekend with highs in the upper 20s.

Back from vacation, and I’m glad to say our first forecast back is a nice one. Over the next few days, the upper-level pattern over the Prairies will stay relatively stagnant. An upper ridge over the western Prairies will slowly build and nudge eastwards while a few disturbances rotate through central and northern Manitoba.

In Winnipeg, this will mean that temperatures will be fairly consistent in the days ahead; highs should sit in the upper 20s while overnight lows dip to the mid- to upper teens.

There will be plenty of sunshine in the city in the days ahead too. Today will bring some cloudy periods; there’s a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this morning as a shortwave moves through the area, and then again late in the day as a weak upper trough approaches from the northwest. 

Heading into the weekend, conditions will settle with sunny to mixed skies. Winds will be generally light, but Saturday could bring northwesterlies into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The big question for the coming days will be just how much smoke the city will see with this weather pattern. Satellite pictures last night showed a decent plume of smoke to the northwest, corroborated by reports of poor visibility in The Pas and Flin Flon through the day. That smoke will gradually shift towards southern Manitoba. It shouldn’t be too bad today, but we’ll likely see smokier conditions develop at some point on Saturday and persist into Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

To start off next week, the upper ridge will build eastwards into Manitoba and bring more heat to the region. Temperatures will climb into the low 30s with dew points heading towards the 20 °C mark. This will make for a rather hot and humid first half of the week with Humidex values reaching into the upper 30s. Some unsettled weather is possible mid-week with near-seasonal temperatures returning to end the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.