Cold Front Brings Relief From Hot and Humid Weather

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A cold front passing out of the province today will usher a cooler and drier air mass into southern Manitoba. This will bring a welcome break from the hot and humid early-June weather the region has seen, along with more settled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 10, 2023
On Saturday, a high pressure centre moving in from the north will bring cooler daytime highs in the low 20s to southern Manitoba.

A cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba this morning, bringing some cloud, a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, and a breezy northerly wind. In Winnipeg, any chance for rain should end by midday, leaving dry conditions and a high in the mid-20s. Unfortunately, the city won’t see clear skies in the afternoon; behind the cold front, smoke from the northern Prairie forest fires will push into the region. It may end up being fairly noticeable for a few hours after the passage of the cold front, otherwise it should mainly appear as haze and not have too significant an impact on air quality. The winds will ease in the evening, then temperatures will head to an overnight low in the low teens, the coolest in a while.

Through the weekend, a large area of high pressure will settle into the region. Saturday and Sunday won’t bring cloud to the region, rather it will largely just be a question of how much smoke lingers over the region. Temperatures will be cool on Saturday with a high in the low 20s and a low near 10 °C. Temperatures will begin to warm on Sunday with a high back in the mid-20s and a low in the mid-teens.

Long Range Outlook

To start next week, daytime highs will once again climb back to around 30 °C. The humidity levels will stay much lower and keep the heat a bit more comfortable than last week. By mid-week, conditions could turn unsettled again and bring the chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region for several days.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Hot and Unsettled Weather Continues

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Hot and muggy weather will stick around in Winnipeg for a few more days along with more chances for thunderstorms. Some relief is on the way for the end of the week, though, with more seasonal conditions arriving on Friday.

A hot and humid air mass will remain in place over southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

An upper high entrenched over the eastern Prairies means little change is on the way for Winnipeg over the next few days. That said, there is a change on the way. A developing low pressure system over the southern Arctic is beginning to push cooler air into the northern Prairies. As it matures in the coming days, that cooler air will continue to slump southwards through the Prairies. By Friday, this cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba, clearing out the humidity and lowering temperatures back towards more seasonal values.

Before we get to that, though, there will be a few more days of hot and unsettled conditions in the Winnipeg area. The daytime high will reach the low 30s again today, then ease into the upper 20s for the next couple days. That humid air mass will keep overnight lows mild with lows in the 18 to 20 °C range.

Each of the next few days will also continue to bring a risk of thunderstorms across the region. Here in the Red River Valley, scattered thunderstorms are possible today, but not likely until closer to the evening. Much of the activity will stay west of the region on Wednesday, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible. On Thursday, a chance of thunderstorms will develop across the region later in the day as a cold front pushes through.

With the heat and humidity in the region, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over the region. That being said, most will likely be non-severe. Any that manage to organize to severe limits will mainly pose a torrential rain and hail threat.

Long Range Outlook

A break from the heat and humidity will stick around for the weekend, a welcome relief for many. Daytime highs will vary from the low to mid-20s this weekend, feeling very comfortable thanks to lower humidity levels. That drier air mass will also allow overnight lows to cool off into the low to mid-teens.

Warmer weather is expected to return next week with daytime highs climbing back into the 30s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.

Warm With Increasing Humidity This Week in Winnipeg

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After the scorching heat last week in the Winnipeg region, it might seem like this week will be cooler with highs of only the upper 20s. That slight cooling will be offset by more humidity in the region, with humidity levels possibly reaching downright muggy levels by Friday.

GDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 00Z June 3, 2023
A extended southerly flow will bring a more humid air mass from the Gulf of Mexico northwards to southern Manitoba by the week’s end.

It will be another unsettled day in the Winnipeg area thanks to a shortwave lifting across the region from the Dakotas. As it moves into the warm and relatively humid air mass in our region, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop. These will persist through the afternoon and into the evening before tapering off.  The city will see a high in the mid-20s give way to an overnight low in the mid-teens.

Heading into mid-week, an upper ridge will begin to build over Central Canada. It will bring warmer temperatures to the region while also supporting a deep southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico northwards through the American Plains. Daytime highs will rise into the upper 20s, but at the same time, an increasingly muggy air mass will build northwards. Dew point temperatures will increase from around the mid-teens to close to 20 °C by Friday. This will make for very muggy conditions to end the week that will make the highs in the upper 20s feel more like the mid-30s.

Along with the heat and humidity will come some unsettled conditions as well. Isolated to scattered [thunder]showers may be possible as the week progresses.

Long Range Outlook

Very warm conditions will return for the weekend with daytime highs likely climbing into the low 30s. If the humidity remains high, then it would almost certainly result in another heat warning for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Again, though, it won’t be completely stable and some showers or thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend.

More settled conditions will return next week as the humidity begins to leave the region. With a drier air mass, highs will hover in the upper 20s with overnight lows in the mid-teens through the first half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Warmer Weather Returning for the Weekend

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The western Canada upper ridge will rebound eastwards this week, bringing more sunshine and warming temperatures to southern Manitoba.

GDPS 500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid 00Z Monday May 22, 2023
Upper ridging (red) will spread into southern Manitoba from western Canada this weekend.

First, I apologize for the lack of forecasts lately. Between a very busy period at work and having to try and kick a persistent cold, I’ve had little spare time and been pretty tired. More changes to the schedule in the week ahead may limit my ability to get forecasts written in the short-term, but I do have some helpful new features coming to the site very soon that I’ve been able to work on a bit.

Looking at the weather, it’s all uphill from here. Yesterday, an upper low moving through the province brought very cool temperatures and showers to the region. Today, with it now shifting off to the east, the upper ridge that slid westwards this week will spread back into the eastern Prairies.

As it heads east, it will send an area of high pressure through the province. That will bring clear skies to the region today with easing northwest winds. Temperatures should bounce back to a seasonal high near 20 °C. Those sunny skies should keep through the weekend as well with temperatures climbing into the mid-20s.

Overnight lows will rise as well, from the high single digits tonight into the mid-teens by weekend’s end.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start with very warm temperatures; daytime highs in Winnipeg could break the 30 °C mark on Monday. On Tuesday, though, the weather may start to turn, bringing the risk of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The weather pattern looks to stay unsettled through much of the rest of the week, bringing mixed skies, seasonably mild temperatures, and the occasional chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.