Cloudy but Warm Conditions Give Way to Sunshine and Heat Next Week

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A slow-moving system to the southwest will keep skies cloudy in Winnipeg the next couple days. The sun returns on Sunday with temperatures warming up to start the week.

ECMWF 48hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Sunday May 14, 2023
A slow moving disturbance will bring cloud to the Red River Valley, but will dump copious amounts of rain to the west.

The main weather-maker over the next couple days will be a slow-moving complex of upper lows that extends from northeastern Montana to the central American Plains. This system will keep skies cloudy over the Red River Valley, but is bringing more inclement weather further west. Rain will persist across portions of SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba over the next few days, which has triggered an overland flood warning for parts of the impacted region.

For Winnipeg, though, dry northeasterly winds coming out of an area of high pressure to the north will help keep the rain west and south of the city. Winds will reach around 30 gusting 50 km/h both today and Saturday, then ease into the 10 to 20 km/h range at night.

Temperatures will continue mild, though, with highs in the 20 to 25 °C range over the next couple days and overnight lows in the low teens tonight and high single digits on Saturday night.

Everything begins to change on Sunday, though. The slow-moving system will be punted eastwards as a strong upper ridge builds across the Prairies. This will bring sunny skies back to the region and start sending highs up. Sunday will bring high temperatures back into the mid-20s and overnight lows into the low teens.

Long Range Outlook

The upper ridge over the Prairies will dominate the weather across southern Manitoba through the first half of next week. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 20s with plenty of sunshine.

This system will also likely result in the intensification of forest fires in the western Prairies and British Columbia. It’s too early to tell at this point, but there’s a chance that parts of southern Manitoba may end up seeing some hazy skies later in the week if smoke begins to drift into the region.

An upper low will begin digging into the ridge mid-week, and could bring some unsettled conditions to southern Manitoba in the second half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Summer Warmth Arrives in Winnipeg This Week

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After a bit of an unsettled Tuesday, sunnier skies develop over southern Manitoba with high temperatures climbing into the mid-20s!

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday May 11, 2023
Temperatures will climb into the mid-20s across southern Manitoba on Thursday.

Warmer weather will arrive in Winnipeg today with daytime highs climbing back to around 20 °C. A weakening upper trough over the region will provide instability for mixed skies with some scattered afternoon showers. The odd shower might end up strong enough for a couple lightning strikes, but no notable organized thunderstorm activity is likely. A few clouds will linger overnight with temperatures heading down into the low teens.

The weather over the next few days will be shaped a building upper ridge over the eastern Prairies. This will settle conditions and push warmer weather northwards. With sunny skies on Wednesday and a bit of cloud on Thursday, temperatures will climb into the mid-20s. In addition to the warmth, dew point values will hover close to 10 °C, making for very comfortable conditions.

Overnight lows will continue to dip into the 10–15 °C range at night. On Wednesday night, there will be a small chance of some showers driven by some weak instability aloft that will persist through the night.

Long Range Outlook

Cloudier conditions will move in for Friday and Saturday in southern Manitoba. A potent low pressure system will spread rain into the northern United States, but a strong deformation zone will keep a sharp cut-off to the rain south of the Canada–U.S. border. The cloud will combine with moderate northeasterly winds to send daytime highs a few degrees cooler; Winnipeg will see daytime highs near 20 °C to wrap up the week.

Sunshine will return ton Sunday as this storm system clears. Temperatures will head back into the mid-20s with the heat persisting into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Seasonably Cool Weekend Gives Way to Warmer Weather Next Week

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Seasonably cool temperatures will stick around for Winnipeg this weekend — along with some unsettled weather — but a big warm up is on the way for next week.

ECMWF 24-hr. Precipitation Accumulation valid 00Z Sunday April 30, 2023
Showers will drop through Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday.

To wrap up the work week in Winnipeg, any morning fog will burn off as temperatures head to a high in the low teens for the afternoon. The region will see mixed skies today with light north-northwest winds.

The next disturbance to impact the region will begin moving in tonight. Skies will cloud up tonight with showers pushing into the Red River Valley from the northwest by morning. Temperatures will head to a low near 2 or 3 °C tonight.

Saturday will bring mostly cloudy conditions to the region with the chance for some sunny breaks in the afternoon. The most organized shower activity will move through the region in the morning, but much of the activity may end keeping west of Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10 °C as northerly winds pick up to around 20 km/h. A few pop-up showers will be possible in the afternoon in the unstable northerly flow that develops.

Skies will clear out on Saturday night with a northerly breeze. Temperatures will dip to a low again in the low single digits.

Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies to the region with a high in the low teens. It will be a breezier day with north winds picking up as high as 30 gusting 50 km/h. It’ll be a cool night on Sunday night with a low near the freezing mark.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, a major pattern change will bring a substantial change to the weather across Manitoba. The cool temperatures of the last while have largely been due to a persistent upper-level vortex over Hudson Bay. Heading into next week, there’s high confidence that feature will finally collapse southwards into Ontario, then shunt eastwards and out of the region.

The upper-level pattern will then begin to reorganize itself over a few days, with the most prominent trend being a building upper ridge over western North America. As a result, by the end of the week, a well-formed upper ridge is forecast over much of the western United States, the Canadian Prairies, and central Arctic.

ECMWF 500mb Heights and Height Anomaly Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday May 3, 2023
A strengthening upper ridge (red shading) will build into western Canada and the Arctic by the middle of next week.

The end result of that will be that next week will see relatively little by way of precipitation and substantially warming temperatures. Daytime highs in southern Manitoba will likely climb into the 20s by Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by highs in the 15 to 25 °C range through the rest of the week.

So after one more weekend on the cool side of seasonal, some spring/early-summer warmth will arrive next week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.

Temperatures Creep Higher as Unsettled Conditions Develop

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Winnipeg’s temperatures will warm towards more seasonal values this week, but a few passing disturbances will bring cloudier conditions with a chance of rain.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation valid 12Z Thursday April 27, 2023
An occluding low pressure system will bring a swath of rain to southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

The weather will turn more spring-like in Winnipeg this week as the northerly flow in place over the region breaks ahead of approaching Pacific disturbances. Daytime highs will immediately respond to this change with highs climbing up into the low teens today. The return to warmer weather will occur under sunny skies and light winds.

The unsettled conditions will arrive mid-week. Skies will cloud over tonight ahead of an approaching low as temperatures dip into the low single digits. On Wednesday, breezy southerly winds will develop, followed by a band of rain that pushes across the Red River Valley. Driven by an occluding low pressure system, the region could see as much as 5 to 10 mm of rain as it moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10°C before cooling off once the rain begins. The rain will taper off by evening, but lingering showers will be possible through the night. The winds will ease Wednesday evening followed by temperatures down into the low single digits.

Cloudier conditions will linger for Thursday as another disturbance drops through the Prairies, but the organized rain with that system will stay further west. Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see a diminishing chance of showers as the day wears on. Temperatures will again climb to a high near 10 °C with a high north wind picking up through the day.

Long Range Outlook

Some sun will begin to poke out from behind the clouds on Friday with light north winds continuing. Another passing disturbance could bring some flurries late Friday night changing to rain showers on Saturday morning. Daytime highs will hover around 10 °C right through the weekend with lows in the 0 to 5 °C range.

Next week should bring sunnier skies and temperatures finally beginning to climb back to seasonal highs in the mid-teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.