We’ll finally see a warming trend this week after a nasty weekend of cold, windy, and snowy weather. The persistent trough over central North America will finally lift, allowing warmer air from the west to spill into southern Manitoba.
Today will be relatively nice compared to the nasty weather of the weekend. While temperatures will still be cooler than normal, today’s highs near zero will be pleasant since skies will be sunny and winds will be light. Not a perfect April day by any means, but definitely an improvement.
A warming trend will take hold beginning Tuesday
Tuesday’s weather will see us warm closer to seasonal values, with high temperatures in the mid to upper single digits across southern Manitoba. However, skies are expected to turn mainly cloudy as a weak upper disturbance passes through. Winds will also be gusty from the south at 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.
Wednesday is expected to be the first really nice day in awhile, as temperatures climb up around 10C under mainly sunny skies. Winds are also expected to remain light, making for a very pleasant day.
Long Range
There is still some uncertainty as to how warm it will be for the rest of this week. Some models put us close to 20C by Thursday, while others keep us down in the single digits. Time will tell exactly how warm we’ll get this week, but the general trend calls for warmer than normal conditions for the second half of the month.
The cool weather will continue through the next few days with daytime highs struggling near 5°C below seasonal for early April. Heading into the weekend, the wind will be the biggest story as a low pressure system brings strong southerly winds to the region on Saturday and strong northerly winds on Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure situated over the province will bring cool temperatures, clear skies and light winds to Southern Manitoba today. In Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, temperatures will climb to a high near -4°C, some 12°C below seasonal values for this time of year. Tonight will be a cool night with overnight lows dipping below -10°C. Through the second half of the night, cloud cover ahead of an approaching low pressure system will begin spilling into Western Manitoba and towards the Red River Valley.
Windy Saturday
Saturday’s weather will be dominated by a fairly strong low pressure system moving across the province. The primary story for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will be the strong winds associated with it.
Strong southerly winds (pink) will be in place over Southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Beginning mid-day on Saturday, strong southerly winds will develop over the Red River Valley southwards into the Dakotas. Winds will reach their peak by mid-afternoon with sustained winds of 50-60km/h with gusts up to 80km/h. The winds will then diminish in the evening as the low pressure centre moves over the region.
There will be a chance of some shower or flurry activity with this system on Saturday, but at this point it looks like a vast majority of the precipitation will remain to the north, primarily falling through Parkland Manitoba eastwards through the Interlake.
Temperatures will climb to around +2°C during the day under mainly cloudy skies.
Flurries Move in on Saturday Night Alongside Strong Northerlies
With the passage of the low occurring mainly on Saturday night, temperatures will remain relatively warm; by early Sunday morning the temperature is expected to dip to just -2°C. It will begin to feel a lot colder, however, as the low passes to the east and strong northwesterly winds begin moving in behind the system.
Strong northwesterly winds (pink) will be in place over Southern Manitoba on Sunday.
Sunday will be another cloudy day with decent chance of some flurry or light snow activity as temperatures climb to a high of +1°C. Winds will strengthen out of the northwest to 40-50km/h with gusts up to 60km/h. The wind ease to 30km/h or so on Sunday night as temperatures dip to -8°C for a low.
Long Range: Heading Into A Warming Trend
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 15-22, 2016
After a lengthy stretch of below-normal temperatures, it’s beginning to look like we’ll finally see a taste of spring in the second half of next week as an upper-level ridge begins shifting eastwards and spreading milder air into Manitoba. Daytime highs of will climb towards 10°C by the end of next week. No significant precipitation is expected through the next 4-8 days at the moment.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.
Winnipeg hasn’t see the last of the snow quite yet; after a mix of snow and rain yesterday, another mess of wintery weather is on the way later today as a low pressure system slumps through the province from the northwest. Afterwards, the Red River Valley will be left with generally cool weather with daytime highs below seasonal values.
Winnipeg will see but a brief reprieve from yesterday’s snowy & slushy weather before another low pressure system pushes into the province from Northern Saskatchewan and brings another shot of rain and snow to Southern Manitoba. Before that wet and messy weather moves in, Winnipeg will be stuck under mostly cloudy skies with light winds. Temperatures will be below normal today with daytime highs near +3°C.
The RDPS shows an area of precipitation moving across the Red River Valley on Wednesday evening
By late this afternoon, a mix of rain and snow will begin working its way into the Red River Valley from the northwest. This mix of precipitation will likely continue into the evening before changing over to just snow overnight as temperatures dip to a low near -3°C.
As the low pressure system passes to the east of the Red River Valley overnight, stronger northwesterly winds will develop with sustained winds of 30-40km/h and gusts to around 50km/h.
Thursday will bring more cloud to the region with the gusty northwesterly winds continuing throughout the day, sustained by a ridge of high pressure building in from the north. There will be a chance of light flurry activity throughout much of the day, but no significant accumulations are expected. The daytime high will be a bit cooler than Wednesday at +1 or +2°C, but as the ridge moves it brings much cooler air. It will be noticeable on Thursday night as the winds drop off and Winnipeg heads to a low near -10°C.
The sun should finally make an appearance on Friday as the weather over Southern Manitoba is dominated by a ridge of high pressure. This will result mainly sunny skies with light winds and very cool daytime highs[1] in the low minus single digits. Friday night will continue to be cold with an overnight low in the minus teens.
Long Range
Looking ahead to to the weekend and beyond, it appears that the generally cool temperatures will stick around until at least the middle of next week before a return to more seasonal values.
The CPC is forecast below-normal temperatures for Southern Manitoba in the 6-10 day time period
The weekend looks like the most "active" period in the longer-range forecast as another significant low pressure system moves across the Prairies. Strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the low as it moves towards Manitoba through the day on Saturday[2], and then as they begin to diminish another mix of rain and snow will spread across portions of central and southern Manitoba. There’s uncertainty as to how much Winnipeg will see, but best indications are that most should stay north of the city.
Otherwise, the weather looks cool and calm through the first half of next week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.
Friday’s daytime high will be nearly 15°C below seasonal values! ↩
Sustained winds of 50 km/h are possible on Saturday with gusts as high as 70 km/h. ↩
Another bout of ugly winter weather is on the way this week as two back-to-back systems bring more snow to southern Manitoba.
Today will be one of the nicer days this week, although that’s not saying much. We should see mainly sunny skies and temperatures just below the freezing mark, which is almost 10C below normal for this time of year. Winds will be light as we’ll be stuck under a surface high pressure system.
A strong low pressure system will bring snow to southern Manitoba on Tuesday
The weather will begin to turn ugly early on Tuesday morning as a low pressure system pushes snow into southern Manitoba. A band of moderate to heavy snow is expected on Tuesday morning as the system initially pushes into the region. This band will likely persist for only a few hours before snow rates become lighter. However, light snow is expected to continue off and on for most of Tuesday, pushing total snow accumulations into the 5-10 cm by the time this system moves out late on Tuesday. Gusty north winds are expected to develop on Tuesday night, causing poor visibility in open areas.
Wednesday will see yet another low pressure system bring additional snow to southern Manitoba. This round of snow is expected to push in later in the day, bringing another 2-6 cm by Thursday morning. It’s a bit early to be very confident in the amount of snowfall this system will bring, so check back for updates as the week progresses.
Long Range
The long range forecast doesn’t show any indication of improving weather for the next while. Conditions are generally expected to remain at or below normal for most of the first half of April. More snow isn’t out of the question either, so don’t take off those snow tires just yet!
