This week will start out mild, with temperatures just below the freezing mark. However, colder weather appears to be on the way for the weekend.
Today will be mainly cloudy with some flurry activity. A low pressure system to our north will push southward during the day, ushering in this light snowfall. We’ll be in the warm sector of this low pressure system, allowing us to experience mild temperatures just below the freezing mark. Winds will also be light, making for a generally nice day.
Southern Manitoba will be in the warm sector on Monday
Tuesday will remain mild, although temperatures will dip slightly in the northerly flow behind Monday’s system. A few flurries may persist on Tuesday, though no significant accumulations are expected. Winds will be breezy from the north at 20-30km/h.
Wednesday will see the continuation of mainly cloudy, but mild conditions. Temperatures will remain just below the freezing mark with flurries likely again. Winds will be light however, making for a grey, but generally decent day.
Long Range
The long range forecast suggests that mild weather will stick around through the remainder of the work-week. However, it appears another arctic blast is on tap for the weekend, bringing temperatures well below normal. Models suggest that this arctic air mass will stick around into next week, although it will be tough for extreme cold conditions to persist as we push into March.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.
The mild weather will continue today with daytime highs of +1 or +2°C today as yet more warm air washes over Southern Manitoba. The system responsible for this mild spell will be making its way across the region today and after it brings some mixed precipitation, it will push eastwards into Ontario, taking the warmth with it. Northerly winds will develop tonight and begin to usher in cooler, more seasonal temperatures.
Today will bring some more organized precipitation across the Red River Valley as the main disturbance that’s been responsible for the warmth this week moves across the region. With temperatures so close to the freezing mark, what type of precipitation will be falling is a bit of a difficult question to answer. Looking at the Red River Valley as a whole, we can say that there will be mixed precipitation, however for any one location may see just rain, just snow, or both. Even if snow falls, with the above-0°C temperatures, it won’t be able to accumulate much. By the time the precipitation tapers off, just 1-2 mm of rain or cm of snow will have fallen.
With light winds and above-zero temperatures, it also is possible that drizzle or fog patches are an issue throughout much of the day.
As the system moves into Ontario later today, northerly winds will begin developing over Southern Manitoba and draw in cooler air from the north. Drizzle or freezing drizzle will be possible through the early evening hours, but that risk should dissipate heading into the overnight period. Temperatures will dip to about -6°C with gusty northerly winds up to 30 km/h.
The GDPS shows the gradual return of colder air via 850mb temperatures.
Saturday will bring mixed skies and diminishing winds as the Red River Valley sees a weak ridge of high pressure begin to build in. There’s a bit of uncertainty to exactly how much cloud will clear out of the region; it will likely trend towards cloudier, but we should see a few sunny breaks through the day. Temperatures will recover just slightly from the overnight low to a high of -5°C. The colder weather will continue pushing southwards with gradual clearing through the evening & overnight that will allow temperatures to dip to an overnight low near -17°C.
Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies to Winnipeg, but the southern Red River Valley will likely see cloudier skies as a weak low pressure moves through North Dakota. This system will produce some light snow for areas further south, but in Winnipeg there will just be a chance of flurries. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than seasonal with a high of -12°C. Skies should clear on Sunday night as temperatures head to a low near -16°C.
Long Range: Not Cold For Long
This cool-down will be brief; by Monday daytime high temperatures approaching the freezing mark will return to the Red River Valley.
Temperatures will be variable next week with warm days giving way to 1-2 days of seasonal temperatures before warmer weather returns again. No significant precipitation events are expected through next week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -18°C.
Today will mark the start of a prolonged spell of unseasonably warm weather for Southern Manitoba. A strong west-to-southwest flow aloft will begin building into the region today, ushering in much milder Pacific air which will help daytime highs climb above the freezing mark. The milder weather will bring unsettled weather with numerous chances for snow or rain along with the risk for freezing rain over the coming 3-5 days.
Today will bring soaring temperatures as gusty southerly winds develop and raise our temperatures from sub-minus 20 values this morning to around -4 or -3°C by the end of the day. While winds will be light early this morning, they will pick up towards midday to 30-40 km/h out of the south as the warm front towards the Red River Valley. As the warmer air advances eastwards, it will produce scattered flurries that will pass through much of the Red River Valley.
Temperatures will remain steady or drop slightly on Thursday night as more warm air surges northeastwards ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Any remaining flurry activity will taper off overnight, but by Thursday morning the potential for precipitation will return.
RDPS Precipitation Type Forecast for Thursday February 18, 2016
Thursday will be a mild but messy day. A low pressure system tracking across the Southern Prairies will spread a wintery mix of precipitation through the region with pretty much anything possible. With a high of just +1°C, much of the day will bring the potential for flurries or ice pellets, with the risk of freezing rain. At this point it doesn’t appear that amount will be too significant for the Red River Valley, but with a significant chance for freezing precipitation, we’ll be keeping close tabs on it.
Winds will be moderate throughout Thursday morning out of the southeast to about 30-40km/h. Temperatures will climb to near the 0°C mark and then remain there through the remainder of Thursday and through Thursday night. The chance for any type of precipitation (flurries, freezing rain, rain showers) will likely continue through Thursday night.
Friday will see even warmer air push into the Red River Valley with a daytime high near +2°C expected. There will continue to be a chance for flurries in the morning transitioning to rain showers. Winds will remain light until later in the day when a weak cold front swings through and ushers in winds near 30km/h out of the west-northwest.
Long Range: Mild Weather Continues
Looking forward, it looks like the warmer temperatures will remain in place for a while yet. This weekend will remain warm with daytime highs near 0°C on Saturday and -5°C on Sunday, with chances for snow on both days.
CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
Further on into next week, temperatures are forecast to continue above seasonal for this time of year as shown above in the CPC’s 6-10 day temperature outlook.
The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -8°C and the normal overnight low is -18°C.
Temperatures will be taking a ride on a roller coaster this week as abnormally warm weather briefly gives way to a more seasonal cold snap and then soars back to well above-normal conditions. By the latter half of the week, above-0°C daytime highs may even be possible.
A mild air mass over the Red River Valley will bring a typical "warmer than it ought to be this time of year" mix of conditions to the region. It will be mainly cloudy today with a chance of flurries throughout much of the day, although if any snow does materialize, it should be light. Throughout the morning hours, though, fog patches and the risk of freezing drizzle will be the more prominent weather. The temperature should climb to around -1°C for a daytime high with light winds.
The RDPS is forecasting temperatures just below freezing across Southern Manitoba today.
Light northerly winds will develop this evening, ushering in cooler air. As the cloud cover gradually scatters out, temperatures will drop to an overnight low near -18°C. The light northerly winds will continue through Tuesday courtesy of an Arctic ridge building into the region. Temperatures will rebound to a high of about -13°C under partly cloudy skies, and then drop into the minus twenties for an overnight low near -22°C.
Tuesday night will be the coldest night for a while as a significant pattern change begins on Wednesday which will result in a more persistent flow of Pacific air across the Prairies. The result will be a second half of the week that brings daytime highs well above normal. For Wednesday, a warm front will push across the Red River Valley, bringing southerly winds of 20-30 km/h and temperatures climbing to about -7°C. The warm weather will continue to push in on Wednesday night with temperatures climbing a couple degrees more. With that warmer weather moving in, there will also be a chance of some flurries, but no significant accumulations are expected.
Long Range: Warm!
The second half of the week will be mild, albeit cloudy, as significantly warmer air moves in from the west.
The GDPS is forecasting 850mb temperatures to be around 20°C above normal on Friday.
This surge of warm air is well represented by the forecast 850mb temperatures heading into Friday. As shown above, a surge of warm air around 20°C above normal is forecast to move into the region. The temperatures at this level don’t correspond 1:1 with surface temperatures, so don’t expect it to be 20°C above normal (which would be a high of +12°C) on Friday. Rather, what we’ll see is temperatures getting about as warm as they’re allowed to get with the established snowpack we have, and they likely won’t budge too much once they get there, at least until the warm air leaves.
Temperatures will likely climb to +1 or +2°C on Thursday with a chance of some light snow. Once we reach that high temperature, temperatures will likely remain there until a weak cold front moves through on Friday night. It looks a bit uncertain at this point, but there will be the chance for precipitation throughout both Thursday and Friday.
Heading into the weekend, it will be cooler but still above normal with daytime highs in the minus mid-single digits. There will be the occasional chance for some flurry activity.
The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -8°C and the normal overnight low is -18°C.
