Lovely Fall Weather Continues

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Seasonably mild temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba in what has been a pleasant fall so far.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday October 17, 2023
An approaching low pressure system will bring very mild late-October temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

A low pressure system advancing towards the province will bring some cloud cover and mild weather to Winnipeg today. With skies becoming mixed this morning, temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper teens this afternoon.

The low will begin moving through the region this evening, bringing with it a chance of rain showers. The heaviest rain will likely end up southeast of Winnipeg with amounts near 5 to 10 mm. Amounts will quickly drop off to the northwest of this; Winnipeg will sit along the edge, but at least a couple millimetres of rain seems likely. It will be a warm night with a low near 10 °C.

On Wednesday, northerly winds will pick up behind the low as any lingering showers move out of the region. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid-teens with northerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h. Skies will take their time clearing out, but Winnipeg will likely see a bit of sun before evening.

A ridge of high pressure will move through the province on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will allow temperatures to dip into the -5 to 0 °C range on Wednesday night. On Thursday,  temperatures will bounce back into the mid-teens again as another push of warmer air moves in from the west. A weak low will slide through the region on Thursday night, bringing with it another chance for some light rain showers.

Long Range Outlook

Friday will mark the start of a gradual transition of southern Manitoba’s weather into a cooler, more unsettled pattern. On the back side of Thursday night’s low, cooler temperatures will gradually slump into the Prairies from the Arctic. As this cold front pushes south over the next week, disturbances will ripple northeastwards ahead and along it, bringing waves of rain or snow to the Prairies.

This will result in variable cloudiness turning mainly cloudy next week and gradually cooling temperatures in Winnipeg. There will be a chance of some rain on Saturday, as well as a more organized chance of accumulating rain early next week. By mid-week, lake-effect rain showers will likely return to southern Manitoba.

Daytime highs will cool to the 0 to 5 °C range with overnight lows well below freezing through this period. The region could also see some of the first snowflakes of the season late next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -1 °C.

Quiet Weather Week Ahead for Winnipeg

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The weather will be fairly benign in Winnipeg and area this week as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather pattern. With it in place, the city will see seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness through the week ahead.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday October 10, 2023
A ridge of high pressure will keep temperatures seasonably cool in Manitoba this week.

It’s a short and sweet forecast week for southern Manitoba as an upper ridge evolves into a quasi-stationary upper high coupled to an upper low over Ontario. As a result, there will be little change in the weather this week as a supply of cool air continues in a flow wavring from northerly to easterly.

This will result in a week of relatively light winds and highs in the 10 to 15 °C range. Overnight lows will generally sit in the 0 to 5 °C range; while some frost/freezing is possible a few nights, last night was likely the coldest night this week.

Mixed to cloudy skies will develop on Wednesday and persist into the end of the week as a broadly northeast flow draws moisture from Hudson Bay southwestwards into the province. There will likely be little to no precipitation with it, but it will help make the days feel on the cooler side.

Long Range Outlook

There will be little change through the weekend into the start of next week as this stagnant pattern continues. Expect a prolonged stretch of near-seasonal temperatures and generally dry weather.

We hope ever had a great thanksgiving and that you have a chance to get outside and enjoy the pleasant fall weather this week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.

Sunshine Returns as Seasonal Fall Weather Settles In

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Sunshine will gradually return to Winnipeg over the coming days as cooler fall weather settles into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday October 8, 2023
Cooler temperatures will descend into the eastern Prairies for the weekend while warmth builds in the west.

The Red River Valley will see mixed skies today as an unsettled air mass moves through the region. Cool temperatures combined with north-northwest winds will result in some persistent lake-effect rain bands. These could be a bit intense at times, and will shift eastwards and weaken as the day progresses. This will result in a chance of showers for many areas in the Red River Valley this morning, then tapering off into the afternoon.

It will be a cool day across the region; highs will reach around 10 °C with northwest winds around 30 gusting 50 km/h. The showers and cloud will clear out this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Temperatures overnight will bring a good chance of some frost to the region as the winds taper off and temperatures dip to around 0 °C.

A weak disturbance rippling along in the flow could bring a few showers to southern Manitoba on Saturday morning, but it looks like the precipitation will likely stay north of the Red River Valley.

A ridge of high pressure will keep things on the sunnier side through the weekend with seasonal highs in the low teens and overnight lows dipping close to the freezing mark.

Long Range Outlook

Through the weekend, an upper ridge will build in the west and some warmer weather will move into Alberta and Saskatchewan. For Manitoba, a deep upper trough is forecast to shift east and mature in to a broad vortex that stalls out over eastern Canada, perhaps even retrograding a bit into next week.

As a result, the warm air will be shunted northwards into the Northwest Territories and Nunavut while cooler near-seasonal temperatures likely remain entrenched over Manitoba through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.

Summer Heat Returns This Weekend in Winnipeg

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Winnipeg will see one last blast of summer this weekend before fall weather moves in next week. Daytime highs in the upper 20s and the risk of severe thunderstorms return to southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday October 1, 2023
Warm and humid late-season warmth will push into southern Manitoba on Sunday with highs in the upper 20s and relatively humid conditions.

The work week will end on a pleasant note in Winnipeg with mixed skies today and a daytime high in the low 20s. Temperatures will dip down into the mid-single digits tonight, a cooler low thanks to a weak area of high pressure moving through the province.

On Saturday, the region will see light east-southeast winds as temperatures climb back up into the low 20s. Skies should stay mainly sunny through the day, but some cloud could start pushing into the region later in the day.

Heading through Saturday night into Sunday, there will be a very strong push of warmer air northwards as a low pressure system lifts through the United States towards the southeastern Prairies. A warm front will push northwards through the night with notable late-season instability developing towards Sunday morning.

By early Sunday morning, MUCAPE values are forecast to climb above 1,000 J/kg as moist air sourced from dew points in the upper teens ascends over the warm front. This will likely support elevated convection into Sunday morning, starting in SW Manitoba and progressing east-northeast. There is a risk that some of these thunderstorms could be severe with the main threat being large hail.

Sunday will be a very warm day if everything goes as planned. The warm front will lift north of Winnipeg, putting the city back into a hot and humid air mass. Temperatures will likely climb into the upper 20s with dew points reaching the high teens, making it feel more like low to mid 30s. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible near the warm front late in the day, but it’s just as likely that the capping inversion will hold.

Temperatures will dip back down into the mid-teens on Sunday night with cloudier skies and a chance of showers.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will mark the slow transition to more fall-like weather across the region. Winnipeg will see cloudier skies with numerous chances for showers as the daytime highs gradually drop from around 20 °C to around 10 °C. Even cooler weather may move into the region to start the week after, so enjoy that last blast of summer warmth on Sunday before the chill sets in!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.