Winter Cold Continues Through the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Below-normal temperatures will stick around through the Christmas weekend, but a warm-up is on the horizon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Sunday December 25, 2022
It will be a cold start to Christmas Day in southern Manitoba with temperatures near -30 °C, but warmer air will already be pushing towards the region in Saskatchewan.

While temperatures in Manitoba haven’t quite compared to the extreme cold anchored over Alberta and impacting much of western Canada, the region continues to see seasonably cold conditions. Fortunately for our region, it won’t get too much worse than seen so .

The detached lobe of the Polar Vortex that has brought such bitter cold to the western Prairies is now spinning its way into eastern Canada and is set to bring a significant winter storm to the region. As it departs, temperatures will cool slightly here in Manitoba, followed by a gradual warming trend.

Daytime highs will hover around the -20 °C mark for the next few days in Winnipeg with increasing sunshine later today into Saturday. Lows will generally sit in the -25 to -30 °C range, but there’s a chance of a sub-minus 30 reading.

Wind chill will be a bit of an issue the next couple days with moderate northwest winds of 30 to 40 km/h. Wind chill values will hover in the -30 to -40 range much of the next couple days.

Those winds will also bring some blowing snow to the region. Today will be the worst for it, with blowing snow possible in most of the open areas in the Red River Valley. Lighter winds into Saturday will make it a more localized issue then.

On Sunday, some cloud will push into the region as a disturbance dives through the region. Snow will push through western portions of the province, likely staying west of the Red River Valley as it struggles against the colder air. Temperatures will climb into the mid-minus teens with light winds, making for a relatively pleasant Christmas Day afternoon across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip into the -20 to -25 °C range on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

The Arctic air will lose its grip on the region as next week progresses with daytime highs climbing close to -5 °C by mid-week. 

Some light snow will accompany the warm-up; on Tuesday night, a band of 5 to 10 cm is likely across WestMan and the Interlake with lesser amounts near 2–4 cm in Winnipeg. If this system ends up a bit further south, the main band of snow could end up falling along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor.

The milder weather will last for the rest of the week, then slid back towards seasonal values to start off the new year. Happy holidays!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Colder Weather Settles Over Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

An Arctic high building into the Prairies will bring seasonably cold temperatures and a bit more sunshine to southern Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday December 20, 2022
Cold temperatures will sit entrenched across the Prairies this week.

Colder temperatures are the story this week as a lobe of the polar vortex slumps into the northern Prairies. It will bring with it a persistent northerly flow that will build an Arctic ridge across the Prairies through the week.

Disturbances grazing by the region will bring a mix of sun and cloud to the region this week, but temperatures will be uniformly cold. Daytime highs in Winnipeg will sit near the -20 °C mark through the rest of the week with overnight lows generally in the -25 to -30 °C range.  

With such cold overnight lows, its possible that the region will see extreme cold warnings at times this week for wind chill values dipping to the -40 mark.

No significant snow will fall across the region this week, but a weak disturbance passing by to the south will spread some snow across the region on Wednesday. Accumulations will be minimal with just a centimetre or two possible by the time it tapers off overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Cold conditions will continue into the Christmas weekend, but by Sunday the worst should begin to break. Heading into next week, warmer weather will move into the region along with some more light snow. 

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Light Snow Lingers Into the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will cool through the weekend as light snow lingers on the back-side of the departing Colorado Low.

RDPS 24hr. Snowfall Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Sunday December 18, 2022
Light snow will continue to fall over the next couple days in southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be relatively light, though, with only 2 to 5 cm likely by Saturday evening.

The Colorado Low that brought accumulating snow to the region over the past few days is gradually trundling eastwards, but its slow departure will mean both gradual cooling and lingering snow. In Winnipeg, this means cloudy conditions with periods of light snow over the next few days.

Accumulations will be relatively light over the next few days at just a couple centimetres or so each day. But with cooling temperatures, the persistent north wind and drier snow will result in plenty of blowing and drifting snow.

Temperatures will slide to around -10 °C this afternoon, then continue to drop over the next day. Expect lows around -12 °C tonight, then temperatures continue to slide into the mid-minus teens on Saturday.

Temperatures will stabilize for Sunday into Monday at seasonably cool values, but there will continue to be a chance of light snow.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, a major pattern change is underway across the Prairies. A lobe of the Polar Vortex will detach and slump into the Prairies, bringing with it much colder temperatures. Beginning early next week, temperatures in southern Manitoba will begin to plummet. Daytime highs will fall into the -20s with overnight lows dipping close to -30 °C.

That stretch of colder weather will likely last much of the week, but some moderation back towards seasonal temperatures looks to be in store by the weekend.

At least we should see the sun more next week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -20 °C.

Colorado Low Brings Mild Temperatures and Snow to Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

A Colorado Low moving into the American Mid-West will spread snow northwards into southern Manitoba this week with significant amounts possible.

RDPS Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) Forecast valid 06Z Tuesday December 13 through 12Z Friday December 16, 2022. Image depicts heavy snowfall over southern Manitoba in excess of 20 cm.
Snowfall accumulations will climb to significant amounts as a prolonged snowfall event begins on Tuesday night and persists until Friday. These accumulations are from one weather model and should be taken more as a signal for snowfall accumulations of 15 to 30 cm rather than a precise forecast.

The weather driver over the next few days will be a Colorado Low passing to the south. It will eject northwards into Nebraska today, spreading heavy snow across the Dakotas. Some light snow will persist across southwest Manitoba today, but the organized, heavier snow will begin to breach the international border later in the day. Temperatures will be mild through the Red River Valley with daytime highs near the freezing mark and easterly winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

Organized snow will lift north through the Red River Valley overnight and persist into Wednesday as moisture travels northwards along a stalled inverted trough.. The snow will likely arrive in waves through the day on Wednesday with highly variable accumulations across the Red River Valley. The heaviest snow in the region will fall along the western escarpment where easterly winds blowing up the slope will result in more intense snowfall rates. Snowfall accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 cm up to as much as 20 to 30 cm will be possible by Thursday morning.

What happens after that is a bit of an interesting interaction with a renewed shot of moisture into the Colorado Low on Thursday, the still-stalled inverted trough hanging back from the system, and a cold front advancing towards the region. There is reasonable confidence that another wave of moderate to heavy snow will push into southern Manitoba from the east later on Thursday. This band of snow will persist through Thursday night, gradually pushing towards the Saskatchewan border. This system could bring another 10 to 20 cm of snow to the Red River Valley by Friday morning, including for Winnipeg.

Daytime highs will hover near freezing through Wednesday, then gradually drop through the day Thursday and Friday to around -5 °C. So while temperatures will be pleasant, most of the region is poised to receive anywhere from “some” to “a lot” of snow over the next few days.

Long Range Outlook

Periods of light snow will likely linger into the weekend, but accumulations will be much less. Daytime highs will fall through the weekend as colder air filters in behind this whole disturbance. While Saturday will be pleasant with a high near -8 °C, by Sunday temperatures will fall into the minus mid-teens and barely recover. 

Even colder weather will start next week, but a bit of moderation will occur as another disturbance brings snow to the region on Tuesday into Wednesday.pi…

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

#awm #forecast_post