More Mild Weather

Another spell of above-normal temperatures are on the way to the Red River Valley this weekend with daytime highs possibly reaching above freezing by the beginning of next week. Closer to Christmas, temperatures will return to seasonal values before cooler air slumps southward for the end of December.

Friday
-6°C / -9°C
Cloudy with periods of light snow
Saturday
-4°C / -7°C
Cloudy
Sunday
-2°C / -4°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries

Today marks the beginning of the warmup as cloud ahead of an approaching warm front blankets the province almost entirely. Here in the Red River Valley, light snow will likely be fairly widespread thanks to favourable temperature profiles throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere. As is typical in these situations, don’t expect any real accumulation. Temperatures will climb to an above-seasonal –6°C or so with light winds. Temperatures dip down to around –9°C tonight with mainly cloudy skies.

Saturday will be another cloudy day with temperatures climbing to around –4°C under mainly cloudy skies. The main difference will be that light snow won’t be nearly as likely, although a few isolated flurries are possible. Winds remain light and temperatures dip to around –7°C on Saturday night under cloudy skies.

Sunday will start…you guessed it, mainly cloudy once again with temperatures beginning to edge even warmer; the daytime high on Sunday will likely be around –2°C. The cloud may begin to scatter out in the afternoon providing a brief reprieve from the cloudy skies.

Some flurries are once again possible, however any real threat for snow will hold off until the overnight hours where a low pressure system passing to our south will potentially bring a band of snow across the Red River Valley with a couple of cm accumulation.

Snowy(-ish) Return to Winter

Looking ahead to next week, the weather pattern will be dominated by a large low pressure system developing over the eastern half of the United States & Canada. The Red River Valley will be positioned on the back-side of the strengthening low, locking us into northerly winds that will begin pulling Arctic air southwards through the Prairies.

The GFS 850mb temperature forecast valid on Christmas eve shows a trough of cold air plunging southeastwards behind a strongly tilted, major storm system centered over Ontario.
The GFS 850mb temperature forecast valid on Christmas eve shows a trough of cold air plunging southeastwards behind a strongly tilted, major storm system centered over Ontario.

With the cooler air plunging southwards, daytime highs will cool off to the mid-minus teens for the second half of the week. Snowfall is a little uncertain at this point for us, but it doesn’t look like much will be seen here, making for a cool and blustery, but not particularly stormy, Christmas. It is worth noting that this storm system will have dramatic impacts on the eastern half of the country, including Toronto & Montreal, so if you have travel plans for the holidays that involve flying in that direction, be prepared for potential delays.

Seasonal Weather Continues

The weather will remain unexciting as a ridge of high pressure exiting the Prairies gives way to more cloud & flurry activity. Snowfall may become slightly more organized by the end of the week, but no significant events are in the forecast.

Wednesday
-10°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny
Thursday
-9°C / ⇒ -9°C
Increasing cloud; light snow overnight
Friday
-5°C / -9°C
Cloudy with flurries

Today will bring sunny skies and a high near -10°C. Winds will be calm.

Skies will remain clear tonight as temperatures drop to around -16°C. Winds will remain relatively light.

Thursday will start off fairly sunny and become increasingly cloudy through the day. While there’s an ever-so-slight chance of a light flurry through the daytime, the bulk of the activity should hold off until the overnight hours. Temperatures will climb to around -9°C with relatively light winds.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady near -9°C on Thursday night with some flurries looking fairly likely.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures climbing to around -5°C. It will also be cloudy with a very good chance of light snow thanks to a weak upper-level trough sliding across the province. Temperatures will dip to around -8°C on Friday night with cloudy skies and a chance of continued flurry activity.

Despite all the snow in the forecast, little of it will accumulate. Friday stands the best chance at seeing something, but even then it would only be a cm or so at most.

Not Much Between Now And Christmas

The weather, in general, is looking quite unremarkable between now and Christmas.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is calling for near-normal conditions over Southern Manitoba.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is calling for near-normal conditions over Southern Manitoba.

The temperature outlook continues to be seasonal with no dramatic swings over the next while. Snow-wise, no significant systems look to impact southern Manitoba between here and Christmas. Through the first half of next week it looks like a weak inverted trough may bring a couple of days of light snow or flurry activity to the province, but once again it looks like it would produce little in the way of accumulations.

So in lieu of any interesting weather, get out there and enjoy what is shaping up, for December, to be an exceedingly bearable winter!

Warm Spell Comes to an End

The little warm spell we’ve been in over the past several days has come to an end. Cooler temperatures are in store for this week, but conditions will remain above-normal.

Cooler weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Cooler weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
-8°C / -13°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries

Today will see temperatures fall from the very mild conditions experienced on the week. High temperatures will be in the upper minus single digits, with a gusty north wind. There is a chance of flurries during the day, particularly in the morning. Unfortunately, even this change in the weather isn’t expected to reveal the sun, as we continue to languish under mainly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-11°C / -15°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will be slightly colder than Monday, but not by much. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with a light north-west wind. The sun should finally come out, making for a mainly sunny day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-10°C / -18°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will see temperatures that are very similar to Tuesday. Highs will once again be near the -10°C mark. Winds will be light, making for a fairly pleasant day. Cloud cover will be variable, with generally a mix of sun and cloud through the day.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll see a gradual warming trend as we move towards the weekend. Temperatures will likely move towards the mid minus single digits, which is still above-normal for this time of year. No major arctic blasts are currently in the forecast, allowing our mild December to continue!

Elsewhere in Weather News: December 13th, 2014

West Coast Hit With Strong Winds, Heavy Rains

The West Coast of North America has been subject to several systems after coming onshore in the past couple weeks, bringing with them heavy rains and strong winds which has led to flooding. Once again, the culprit for the moisture-laden systems in this region has been the atmospheric river. This atmospheric river is a term used for streams of moisture typically originating in the tropics, which head Poleward. Eventually the water precipitates out – it is often enhanced along the west coast due to orographic precipitation, leading to flooding.

Higher PW values streaming from the tropics to the Californian coast are associated with the atmospheric river. (Source: CIMMS)
Higher PW values streaming from the tropics to the Californian coast are associated with the atmospheric river. (Source: CIMMS)

Earlier this week, the BC coast was hardest hit where over 400mm fell on parts of Vancouver Island in 6 days. Flood watches were issued as towns on the Island watched waters rise. The towns of Courtenay and Port Alberni were soaked with over 150mm by Wednesday – some residents were forced to evacuate their homes due to the rising waters. Strong winds were also a problem; gusts over 100km/h were recorded across the coast, even in large cities such as Portland, OR. These winds knocked out power to roughly 75,000 residents in BC alone. In addition to the wind and rain, landslides also became of concern in Southern California. Saturated grounds led to a large slide in Camarillo Springs, CA, which affected over a dozen houses.

Estimated rainfall along the BC coast from December 4 to the 10th. (Source: Environment Canada)
Estimated rainfall along the BC coast from December 4 to 10. (Source: Environment Canada)

The system even brought a weak EF-0 tornado which was spun-up in one of the stronger rain bands that came onshore. The tornado passed through a small area in southern Los Angeles yesterday morning and stripped roofs of their tiles – no one was injured thankfully. Reports of 60-100mm were common along the Californian coast, but localized amounts of 200mm or higher did occur. The highest precipitation report as of Friday came from an area in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains where 450mm of precipitation fell; the amounts here were enhanced by orography.

Unfortunately models are showing another system impacting most of the West Coast early next week, not leaving much time for things to dry out.