Beautiful Summer Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

The beautiful weather we’ve been enjoying over the Thanksgiving weekend is set to continue for a couple more days before slightly cooler weather moves in for the weekend. Fortunately, the dip in temperatures looks to be short-lived before warmer air once moves back into the region.

Wednesday
19°C / 9°C
Warm & windy; mostly cloudy

Thursday
17°C / 5°C
Becoming cloudy with showers in the afternoon

Friday
9°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy & windy, clearing in the evening

Wednesday

Today will be marked with significant warmth hampered somewhat by the breezy southerly winds that will develop. An approaching low pressure system, responsible for spreading the above-average temperatures in Manitoba, will produce a strong pressure gradient over the Red River Valley today which will result in southerly winds increasing to around 40km/h by late this morning with gusts approaching 55–60km/h. These stronger winds will persist well into the evening before tapering off overnight.

Otherwise, it will be a fairly nice day. Temperatures will climb to around 19°C, with a very slight chance of eking out a 20°C for the day, and skies will be fairly mixed, probably trending towards the cloudier side of things. Skies will clear out a bit overnight as we head to a low of 9°C or so.

Thursday

Thursday will be perhaps an even nicer day than today will be. Skies will be a bit sunnier and temperatures nearly as warm – around 18°C for a high – but without today’s wind.

The NAM is generating quite a bit of shower activity across Southern Manitoba – shown here by this simulated RADAR image – on Thursday evening.
The NAM is generating quite a bit of shower activity across Southern Manitoba – shown here by this simulated RADAR image – on Thursday evening.

A low pressure system and associated cold front are poised to move through in the evening, however, which will bring with them some shower activity as the system swings across the Red River Valley. Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will begin tapping cooler air as we head to a low of 3°C overnight with showers possibly persisting through the overnight period.

If slightly heavier activity is maintained overnight, there’s a slight chance that the showers may change to mixed precipitation or flurries for a few hours, but no accumulation of snow would be expected. We’ll keep an eye on this system and provide updates in the comments below if necessary.

Friday

Friday will be a relatively unpleasant day, although in reality quite close to the normal conditions for this time of year. Gusty northwesterly winds to 30km/h and mainly cloudy skies will be the name of the game as our high sits 10°C cooler than Wednesday or Thursday at around 9°C. Little in the way of precipitation is expected.

Winds should taper off Friday evening alongside clearing skies as we head to an overnight low just below freezing.

The Weekend

Conditions will gradually improve through the weekend. Highs both days will climb somewhere in the 10–12°C range with relatively light winds. Sunday appears to be the more interesting of the two days as some showers push into Western Manitoba. It’s unlikely that any rain will make it into the Red River Valley, but we’ll certainly see some cloud from the system as it moves through.

The NAEFS is forecasting above normal temperatures next week.
The NAEFS is forecasting above normal temperatures next week.

The passage of Sunday’s system will mark the return of warmer air to our region and, at this point, it looks like we’ll be returning to above-normal temperatures for next week. Medium-range forecast models, such as the NAEFS, all show a strong signal of above-normal temperatures returning for the last week and a half of October.

Beautiful End to the Long Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

The Thanksgiving long weekend will end on a nice note, with mild temperatures and sunny skies for holiday Monday.

Holiday Monday will be pleasant in southern Manitoba
Holiday Monday will be pleasant in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
16°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be very nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid teens with light winds and sunny skies. This pleasant weather is the result of a ridge of high pressure building over the Prairies, which will continue to bring mild conditions to Manitoba for much of the week.

Tuesday

Tuesday
17°C / 7°C
Increasing cloudiness

Tuesday will be another nice day in southern Manitoba as temperatures climb into the upper teens. A gusty south wind will develop by late in the day, but otherwise it should remain quite pleasant. There will be an increase in cloudiness through the day, as some upper-level cloud cover begins to spill into Manitoba from the west.

Wednesday

Wednesday
19°C / 10°C
A few clouds

Wednesday will see a continuation of the warm weather from Monday and Tuesday. However, there will also be a very stiff south wind, making it feel a bit chillier than it would otherwise be. Temperatures will nonetheless be in the upper teens or near 20C, which is of course well above normal for this time of year.

Long Range

A cold front is currently forecast to pass through southern Manitoba on Thursday, ushering in cooler conditions to end the week. However, models have been strongly hinting at a return to above-normal weather by next week, a trend that may last through the end of the month.

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 11th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Two Dangerous Storms Spin Up

Notable activity has expanded from the tropical waters of the Western Pacific into the Bay of Bengal over the past week. We mentioned in last week’s EIWN that typhoon Vongfong could be a threat to Japan sometime this week – this has since become a reality. Formerly known as super typhoon Vongfong, typhoon Vongfong took aim at the Japanese island of Okinawa early this morning. Packing sustained winds of 140km/h which gusted to over 200km/h, the storm caused power outages to 27,000 residents and some locations on the island reported over 200mm of rain.

News agencies in the region report 20 injuries as of Saturday morning but thankfully no deaths from the storm. Vongfong is expected to curve northeast and slowly transition to an extratropical storm, but not before it brings significant rainfall to Japan’s main islands. This could be bad news, especially for the mountainous regions, as this is the second storm to hit Japan in the span of a week. With already saturated ground, these regions are more prone to landslides.

Cyclone Hudhud Develops

The second tropical storm is cyclone Hudhud which spun up only a few days ago. With sea surface temperatures approaching the 30°C mark in the Bay of Bengal, Hudhud quickly became a “very severe cyclonic storm” as classified by India’s Meteorological Department. As of Saturday morning Hudhud was 200 kilometres offshore of India with sustained winds of 205km/h.

Visakhapatnam radar image of cyclone Hudhud Saturday morning. Outer bands are already affecting India's coast and the eye is visible offshore. (Source: India Met Department)
Visakhapatnam radar image of cyclone Hudhud Saturday morning. Outer bands are already affecting India’s coast and the eye is visible offshore. (Source: India Met Department)

The evacuation of 150,000 people was underway along the coast because a significant storm surge of up to 1.8 metres is expected along the coast. Hudhud is forecast to make landfall overnight tonight just southwest of Visakhapatnam and continue inland, where it will die off, but not before dumping significant amounts of rain. The hardest hit areas can expect over 250mm of rain.

Warm, Windy Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba will continue to see a gradual improvement temperature-wise, and even start creeping into the above normal temperature range this weekend as a southerly flow kicks in. The one caveat is that winds will be fairly strong on Saturday and Sunday, so hold onto your hats!

Tight gradient between the low over the northern MB/SK border and high pressure to our southeast will make for warm, gusty conditions on Saturday.
Tight gradient between the low over the northern MB/SK border and high pressure to our southeast will make for warm, gusty conditions on Saturday.
Friday
10°C / 2°C
Becoming mainly sunny late in the morning

High pressure to the southeast will make for calm conditions today, with mostly clear conditions and slightly below seasonal temperatures. Throughout the day the ridge will continue to shift eastward, making way for the next system arriving this weekend. With most of the cloud clearing out by late morning, giving way to sunshine it should turn out to be a fairly nice day with a tinge of chill in the air, as temperatures approach the 10°C mark. By the time Friday night rolls around, strong southerly winds will start to pick up as the next low pressure approaches to our north – a tight gradient between the high to our southeast and the low to our northwest will be in place.

Saturday
14°C / 7°C
Starting off sunny, possible afternoon cloud

Saturday looks to start off with plenty of sunshine but the downside will be the windy conditions. Winds will continue to gust throughout the day but temperatures will manage to climb to the low to mid-teens across Southern Manitoba. With that said, there is a chance for some stratus to move in from North Dakota in the early afternoon which means we might not heat out completely. The low Saturday night will be fairly mild thanks to some cloud in the region keeping things warm as well as the southerly flow staying in place – lows will be well above the freezing mark.

Sunday
15°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy

By Sunday morning winds will have shifted to the northwest due to a cold front sweeping through the region in the morning. Although winds won’t be as strong as Saturday, they will continue to be gusty behind the cold front. Clouds are expected to linger throughout the day but there won’t be any significant precipitation. The temperatures will remain fairly warm, near average values – low teens are expected. Sunday night the low is will drop to the single digits, however, temperatures won’t drop below freezing.

Long Range

The Climate Prediction Centre as well as a few weather models show temperatures staying above normal for a good part of the beginning of next week with another low pressure system making its way across the Prairies and drawing in warm air ahead of it.