The cold front is coming! The cold front is coming! After a pleasant weekend, things will turn sharply cooler this week as a potent cold front plows through southern Manitoba today.
A cold front will bring sharply cooler weather to southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday
22°C / 7°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers
Today will see a strong cold front sweep through southern Manitoba. The front will move through western Manitoba early in the morning, exiting the province by late afternoon or early evening. There may be a few showers along this cold front, but no significant precipitation is expected. However, temperatures will drop significantly behind the front, and winds will increase as well, marking an end to summery weather, at least for now.
Tuesday
Tuesday
10°C / 4°C
Mainly cloudy with showers
Tuesday will be a nasty day. High temperatures will struggle to reach double-digits and there will be a breezy north wind. To add insult to injury, we may also see some showers throughout the day, just adding to that nasty fall feel. This will be our first taste of fall weather since, well, last fall!
Wednesday
Wednesday
12°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Wednesday will be another cool day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the low double digits are expected, with a breezy north wind once again.
Long Range
After reading about the gloomy weather above, you’re probably hoping this isn’t it for summer…well, all hope is not lost, at least not yet! Long range models suggest that we may return to a more summery pattern at some point in the second half of September. Let’s hope the long range forecast is correct!
This past Tuesday the 10th hurricane in the Eastern Pacific formed and slowly strengthened into a category two hurricane and remains at this status as of Friday night. The hurricane, Norbert, is not expected to make any landfalls, however it is scraping by the Baja Peninsula region bringing adverse weather conditions to the region. Tropical destinations along the coast such as Cabo San Lucas saw tropical storm warnings as well as hurricane warnings. Norbert’s tropical storm force winds expanded a good distance from its centre which prompted these warnings. In fact, Cabo San Lucas had sustained winds of 98km/h overnight Thursday and combined with strong outer rain bands, this made for nasty conditions.
IR image of Norbert on Friday night. (Source: CIMSS)
Norbert is expected to slowly continue northwest to its death and stay offshore. One potential benefit is that the remnants of Norbert could help a bit with the drought in California. The tropical plume of moisture should hold together and has the potential to move into southern California next week, making a small dent in the significant drought that is occurring:
The entire state of California is currently in one of the worst droughts on record. Almost 60% of the state is considered to be in “exceptional drought.”
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season lasts from mid-May to the end of November and on average features 8 hurricanes. In contrast to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, the Atlantic hurricane season has been off to another slow start with only 3 hurricanes this year with no real prospects of possible storms in the near future according to the models, even as we approach the peak of the season. The Atlantic sees on average six hurricanes every year.
As of September 1st, meteorological summer[1] has come to an end and the fall season is upon us. That means, of course, it’s time to take a look back on the summer of 2014 to see just how it fared in the grand scheme of things. Was it actually all that cold, or is that just our memories suffering from the prolonged winter? How wet was it actually? Was it a particularly stormy summer? We’ll take a look at how all of those things fared in Winnipeg as well as highlight a couple major events from the past 3 months across the province!
Meteorological Summer Rankings for Winnipeg International Airport
Category
Summer 2014 Total or Average
Rank
Average High Temperature
24.3°C
Tied 51st coldest
Mean Temperature
18.2°C
Tied 67th coldest
Average Low Temperature
12.1°C
Tied 53rd warmest
Total Rainfall
276.9 mm
29th rainiest
Thunderstorm Days
17 days
Tied 23rd least
Temperature-wise, there wasn’t much to talk about this summer in southern Manitoba. The summer averaged pretty much bang on normal in most areas, including Winnipeg where the average mean temperature of 18.2°C was just 0.2°C below normal. A similar story in Brandon where the average mean temperature of 17.4°C was just 0.1°C above normal. However, there was a notable lack of very hot days. There were only 5 days above 30°C in Winnipeg, below the normal of 12 days, and the least since 2009 when there were only 3 days over 30°C. Interestingly, the hottest day so far this year was actually in May when we hit a record 33.3°C on May 24th. Although it is not the first time our hottest day of the year was outside of the summer season, it is unusual. The last time this occurred was in 2004 when our hottest day of the year was on September 19th.
August Ends 10-month Cold Streak
Top 5 Longest Streaks of Colder Than Normal Months Since 1872
Rank
# of consecutive below normal months
Timeframe
1
18 months
Dec 1882-May 1884
2
14 months
Jul 1884-Aug 1885
3
11 months
Oct 1887-Aug 1888
4
10 months
Oct 2013-Jul 2014
5
9 months
1949/50, 2008/09 & 2012/13
August finished 0.5°C above the previous 30-year (1984–2013) average mean temperature of 18.7°C. This marked the end of a 10-month streak, from October 2013 to July 2014, of months colder than the previous 30-year average. This 10-month streak was the 4th longest of its kind since 1872 and the longest since an 11-month streak in 1887–1888.
Summer Flooding
A grand total of 276.9 mm of rain fell at Winnipeg airport June, July and August. Although this may seem like a lot of rain, this is actually only 12% above the 1981–2010 normal of 247.5 mm. So overall, we were pretty close to normal rainfall totals this summer. However, the problem this summer was that the rain was not spread out through the entire season. Rather, the majority of our rain fell in mid-late June and mid-late August. These two periods featured flooding in parts of southern Manitoba as too much rain fell in too little time. In fact, over 130 mm of rain fell in just 17 days in the second half of June at Winnipeg airport. The month finished 12th rainiest on record with 147.1 mm.
Excessive rainfall over southwestern Manitoba this summer resulted in significant flooding along the Assiniboine river. Brandon, MB – pictured above – was one of many communities hit hard by the widespread flooding.
Conditions were worst in southwestern Manitoba this summer with well above normal rainfall; over 300 mm of rain fell in some of the hardest hit locations. Brandon was one of these locations, receiving a whopping 347.2 mm, almost an entire year’s worth of rain in just 3 months. 251.6 mm of this fell in June alone, Brandon’s rainiest June on record. In fact, 219.8 mm fell in just the last 12 days of June, more than half a year’s worth of rain!
The Year So Far
2014 continues to be much colder than normal. Up to August, the year has averaged 1.7°C; 2.7°C colder than normal for the period. This ties for 17th coldest January to August period on record since 1873, and is the coldest since 1979 when we averaged 0.7°C in the same period. Here’s hoping the year ends on a warmer note!
The monthly and running year-to-date temperature deviation from normal (1981–2010).
In terms of rainfall, the airport has seen 344.1 mm so far this year (up to August 31), which is pretty much bang on normal for the period. Higher amounts, closer to 400 mm, have fallen in southwestern parts of Winnipeg where heavier rains fell in August.
Metorological summer is considered June, July and August. ↩
After a dreary evening last night, conditions will gradually improve to quite a pleasant weekend for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.
The RDPS model is forecasting a line of showers & thunderstorms through the Red River Valley by 5–7PM this evening.
Today will start off with a bit of cloud through the Red River Valley thanks to the Manitoba lakes. We won’t see completely sunny skies, though, as a combination of increasing instability and some cloud moving in ahead of a trough moving across the province produce mixed skies through much of the day.
Friday
18°C / 5°C
Increasing cloud; a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
This afternoon into early this evening will bring a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms across the Red River Valley as that trough line works its way through the region. At this point it doesn’t look like severe weather is likely. Once the trough swings through, northerly winds at around 30km/h will move into the region and general clearing will take place.
Cooler air aloft will once again slump over Southern Manitoba tonight, bringing with it a chance for lake-effect cloud and drizzle once again. Winds, in general, don’t look particularly favourable which will likely limit or exclude their development. Winds will taper off overnight and low temperatures will be near 4 or 5°C.
Improving for the Weekend
Saturday
21°C / 8°C
Cloudy periods
Sunday
23°C / 12°C
A few clouds
Warmer weather will move in for the weekend as multiple low pressure systems draw warmer air eastwards across the Prairies as they move across Central Manitoba. Precipitation is expected to remain through Central & Northern Manitoba, leaving us dry with seasonal highs in the low 20’s. Overnight lows look to dip to around the 10°C mark, give or take a couple degrees.
Big Cool Down Next Week
Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will not be sticking around. Colder air builds into the Northern Prairies behind the systems tracking through during the weekend, which will then be driven southwards early in the week as an Alberta-clipper type system races across the Prairies.
The CPC 6–10 day temperature & precipitation anomaly outlook calls for below normal temperatures and near- to slightly above-normal precipitation.
850mb temperatures are forecast to drop into the 0°C to –5°C range by mid-week, resulting in daytime highs dropping towards the low teens and overnight lows likely dipping towards the 0°C mark. By mid-week, frost will be a definite concern across Western Manitoba and into the Red River Valley. The big question here in Winnipeg & the RRV will be exactly how much cloud the lakes produce when the cold air slides over them.
At this point it looks like a brief moderate at the end of the week before another cold blast potentially moves through.
