Nice Holiday Monday, but Then it Gets Ugly

Brad Leave a comment

The last day of the long weekend will be quite nice, but then conditions will turn ugly for Tuesday as a strong cold front pushes through.

Monday will be a Generally Pleasant Day in Southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday

Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Showers.
25°C / 14°C

Today will be fairly nice in Southern Manitoba. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid twenties under a mix of sun and cloud. The atmosphere will be a bit unstable later in the day, meaning that some isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop. These showers and storms are most likely to occur along and north of the Trans-Canada, though some areas south of the highway will still stand a slight chance of seeing an isolated cell move through. Wind speeds will be light, so overall it will be a quite a nice day in those areas that don’t see any showers or storms move through.

Tuesday

Tuesay

Rain early, then Decreasing Cloudiness
18°C / 5°C

The weather will be in transition on Tuesday as a strong cold front blows through early in the morning, setting up unseasonably cool weather for much of the week. There will likely be some showers, or perhaps even thundershowers, associated with this front as it passes through. However, amounts don’t look to be particularly high. In total, amounts will probably range from about 5 to 15mm, with locally higher amounts. Once the rain clears the region on Tuesday morning, temperatures won’t recover very much. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the mid to upper teens with a stiff northerly wind. Obviously Tuesday will be an unpleasant day, certainly not what we’d hope for in early August.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Showers.
19°C / 9°C

Wednesday will be another cool day in Southern Manitoba from start to finish. Early morning temperatures will be in the mid single digits, with a recovery to the upper teens or perhaps twenty degrees by afternoon. Unfortunately, the atmosphere will quickly destabilize with daytime heating, prompting numerous showers to develop by afternoon. By this point you can probably recognize that this week isn’t going to be very nice.

Long Range

Medium range weather models suggest that the remainder of the work week will stay cool and showery. In the longer range models suggest we may begin to see temperatures trend back towards normal by next weekend, but that is still a bit far away to get overly excited about.

Elsewhere in Weather News: August 3rd, 2013

Matthieu Leave a comment

Damaging Tornado Touches Down in Italy

On Tuesday, the 30th of July a strong tornado touched down in the northern part of Italy in the city of Milan. The storm which was associated with the same upper level low as talked about in last week’s EIWN, as well as a very potent shortwave nearby, was fed by very moist air coming straight from the Mediterranean Sea. The conditions were favorable for tornadoes with low cloud bases and a favorable shear profile.

The tornado, rated an EF-2 (winds of 178-217km/h) on the Enhanced Fujita scale, touched down in the industrial part of Milan, called Grezzago. It quickly picked up lots of debris; easily ripped off roofs, snapped trees and even picked up vehicles. One lucky resident caught in the tornado remembers her car being lifted into the air and thrown about 10 meters, she was uninjured. Thankfully, no fatalities came from this tornado, though 15 people were found to have injuries caused by the twister. There easily could have been more injuries, such as the person who was filming this video, had the windows not held up.

Very dangerous video of an office worker watching the tornado from close up. Notice all the debris. (Source: AP)

This is not the first serious tornado Italy has seen this year, back in the beginning of May, a strong EF-3 tornado touched down in the central part of Italy, caused quite a bit of damage as well as injured 20 people. Italy will get a break this weekend as no severe weather outbreaks are expected.

Quiet, Mild Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A very benign weather pattern will move over Southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure builds into Manitoba bringing increasingly sunny skies and temperatures slowly trying to climb towards seasonal.

Friday

21°C / 9°C
A mix of sun & cloud.
Saturday

24°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

24°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud today as daytime heating is able to produce some shallow convection, but there won’t be enough instability remaining to produce any precipitation as subsidence moves in ahead of the approaching ridge of high pressure. Today will be our coolest day with temperatures only climbing into the low 20’s. Tonight will be quite cool with our temperature dropping just under 10°C by tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow we’ll be under the influence of the high and we’ll see mainly sunny skies as temperatures climb back towards more seasonal highs – which for this time is around 26°C – of around 24°C. Sunday will be nearly a carbon copy of Saturday with a high near 24°C and an overnight low of around 11°C.

Next Week

We’ll start next week with a fairly nice day on holiday Monday with highs in the mid–20’s under a mix of sun and cloud.

NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Outlook produced at 12Z August 1, 2013

NAEFS 8–14 Temperature Anomaly Outlook produced at 12Z August 1, 2013. Areas in red indicate above-normal temperatures, while areas in blue indicate below-normal temperatures, expected for the week after next (8–14 days from now).

The rest of the week looks to be fairly steady temperature-wise, however some models are hinting at a system that may bring some showers or thunderstorms to the region mid-week. No significant warm-up is in sight as a persistent vortex continues to redevelop over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay, keeping a persistent northwesterly flow over the eastern Prairies.

Slightly Cool Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

A persistent low-pressure centre over Hudson Bay will continue to bring cool nights and mild, but not hot, summer days to Winnipeg as it blocks the jet stream from pushing northwards into the southern Prairies.

Wednesday

23°C / 13°C
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of late-day showers.
Thursday

22°C / 12°C
Partly cloudy with a tiny chance of late-day showers.
Friday

22°C / 10°C
Partly cloudy.

The next few days will see very little variation as cooler air ever so slowly slumps southwards into the Southern Prairies. We’ll see a chance of late-day showers in the Red River Valley today and tomorrow, however the chance is pretty minuscule and by no means will the showers be widespread. Temperatures will climb into the low 20’s for highs and start around 13°C for overnight lows and drop towards the 10°C mark by the end of the week. By friday the chance for showers drops off and we’ll likely just see a few clouds in the afternoon.

No Heat on the Horizon

Looking ahead to the long-range it doesn’t appear we’ll see any hot summer weather headed our way for the next 7–10 days. The low that’s keeping us cool is going to stick around for a couple days before backing up to the west, grabbing another batch of cool Arctic air and then diving southwards towards Southern Manitoba…at least, that’s how it looks now. It seems somewhat reasonable as most models have locked into a fairly consistent west-coast ridge and mid-continental toughing pattern for the next while.

Personally, I love the warm but not hot days and cool nights, although given our long-delayed spring, I’m not going to complain if nature can throw another blast of hot and humid weather our way again.