Weather Turning Unsettled This Weekend

Brad

Winnipeg will see another day of sunny and mild conditions before cloudier, unsettled weather moves into the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday June 13, 2022
Humid conditions will push into southern Manitoba by the end of the weekend with dew point values climbing into the upper teens.

Today is Winnipeg’s last day under the influence of the upper ridge over the Prairies. After a mostly sunny start to the day, temperatures will climb into the mid-20s for the afternoon. Skies will cloud over through the day as a warm front approaches from the west.

A few showers may be possible this evening, but the activity will weaken though the night. The warm front will stall southwest of the region on Saturday and continue to bring cloud to the region. A few showers may linger across the region early Saturday, but should taper off as the morning progresses.

From Sunday onwards, the upper ridge will slump southwards, allowing multiple disturbances to ride over it across the southern Prairies. While cloud will keep daytime highs in the low to mid-20s, southerly winds will raise dew points into the upper teens. This will give the region the first stretch of humid conditions this summer. Another chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop across the region on Saturday night into Sunday morning. That activity will clear out on Sunday morning, leaving behind mixed to cloudy skies for the rest of the day.

Long Range Outlook

Generally unsettled conditions will persist through the first half of next week as several disturbances roll through the region. A few periods of showers or thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will begin to improve on Wednesday with some sunshine returning the region, but there may be enough lingering instability for a few late-day showers.

Heading into the second half of next week, there’s strong indications that even warmer weather will begin moving into the region. Daytime highs may climb into the upper 20s by the end of next week.

With humid and warmer weather on the horizon, it’s a great time to check to make sure you have some fans in your home and that, if you have it, your air conditioning unit is working correctly. Heat stress is becoming more common in western Canada summers; ensuring that everything works before the warm weather arrives will help protect you. If there are any issues, you’ll likely find what you need easier and cheaper before the heat arrives. If you live alone, think about having someone you might check in with daily this summer during periods of extreme heat, especially if you don’t have access to air conditioning.

It looks like the shift into summer has finally begun; enjoy it! Especially after the winter we just had to endure!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

A Beautiful Week Ahead for Winnipeg

Brad

Summer finally arrives in southern Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday June 8, 2022
Mild summer temperatures will spread into the eastern Prairies this week.

The upper low that has kept Winnipeg in a seasonably cool pattern over the last week is finally beginning to move. The stagnant pattern that’s been in place over the Prairies is breaking down and a stalled upper low along the northern Manitoba/Ontario border will begin to drift eastwards. As it does, the pool of cold air it’s kept over the region will follow, allowing milder air to spread in from the west. An upper ridge will build into the Prairies through the rest of the week, bringing warmth and relatively settled conditions to the Red River Valley.

As a result, the forecast is short! Winnipeg will see daytime highs in the low- to mid-20s through the remainder of the week with lows climbing into the low teens. Skies will be mainly sunny over the next few days with just a bit of afternoon cloud. Wind also won’t be too much of an issue, picking up out of the north into the 20–30 km/h range each day and easing to light in the evenings.

Long Range Outlook

Some cloud cover will push into the region later on Friday ahead of a disturbance heading into the province. This will mark the start of a more unsettled stretch of weather. A few showers are possible this weekend, with stormier weather possible to start next week. Temperatures will stay warm with highs in the mid-20s, and increasing humidity will push lows into the upper teens.

All in all, it looks like we can say goodbye to “risk of frost” and hello to sunscreen. Enjoy the warm, dry weather ahead this week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Seasonably Cool, Drier Weather Ahead

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A stalled low pressure system over the province will keep temperatures cool over the weekend. On the bright side, there won’t be much rain in the days ahead.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 3, 2022
Mild but below-seasonal temperatures will stay in place over southern Manitoba through the weekend. Northern Manitoba will see much cooler conditions.

Below-seasonal temperatures will continue over the coming days as a captured cold low sits stalled over the province. Daytime highs over the next few days will sit in the 15–20 °C range with a northwesterly breeze each day. The region will see plenty of sunshine with some pop-up afternoon clouds. Overnight lows will likewise be cool, generally dipping to around 5 °C.

A bit more cloud will move through the region on Sunday. The stalled low over the province will dip southwards, also bringing slightly cooler temperatures. There’s a slight chance for a bit of rain, but it looks likely that any wet weather will stick to the north of the Red River Valley. Accumulations would be light with just a couple mm of rain possible in a small band.

Warmer weather will return on Monday with highs climbing back into the upper teens with mixed skies.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal values next week, but no substantial shift into warmer weather is forecast. A weak upper trough will linger across the region through most of the week, bringing the occasional chance of afternoon showers driven by daytime heating. Forecast models show an increasing chance of a large upper ridge building across the Prairies by next weekend. This would bring settled and warmer weather to the region. There is a chance, though, that as that air mass builds across the Prairies through the weekend, there would again be the potential for more organized showers/thunderstorms as a warm front lifts through the region.

But for now, things will be able to dry out a bit with cool, dry conditions, sunny to mixed skies, and a breezy northwest wind.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.

Strong Winds as Rain Ends, Seasonably Cool and Dry Conditions Follow

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The rain across southern Manitoba will taper off today as very strong northwesterly winds develop across southern Manitoba. Once they ease later today, a stretch of slightly cooler, but mainly dry, conditions takes over.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday May 31, 2022
Strong to severe northwest winds will develop over parts of southern Manitoba early Tuesday morning.

A low pressure system tracking northwards out of Minnesota is the culprit for this latest batch of wet weather across the region. It will continue along the Manitoba/Ontario border today with wrap-around showers lingering through the region into the afternoon. Very strong northwest winds will develop across most of southern Manitoba this morning; sustained winds of 50–60 km/h will spread eastwards this morning, and gusts could reach as high as 80–90 km/h.

The winds will begin to ease later in the day as the low continues off into northern Manitoba. The combination of cloud cover, showers, and that northerly wind will result in a very cool day. Temperatures in Winnipeg will only reach around 10 °C this afternoon. Some clearing will develop tonight as the winds continue to ease to around 20 km/h. Temperatures will fall into the 5–10 °C range.

The weather forecast will be fairly stagnant through the rest of the week. This low moving through will stall out over northern Manitoba for a few days, keeping the weather relatively consistent across the province. Here in Winnipeg, daytime highs will generally sit in the 15–20 °C range with lows in the 5–10 °C range. Northwest winds of 20–30 km/h will be common during the days, but will slowly ease as the system in northern Manitoba weakens through the week. Morning sun with some afternoon cloud will be commonplace.

The only catch might be Thursday; there’s a chance that the Red River Valley is clipped by the remnants of this system as it exits the province. If that happens, Winnipeg would see cloudier conditions on Thursday with a chance of a few showers. It would also be cooler in that situation with highs in the 10–15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

The end of the week and weekend is looking pleasant overall. Temperatures will nudge back towards 20 °C for the weekend with plenty of sunshine Friday through Sunday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.