Hot Start to July

We will have a hot end to the Canada Day long weekend and a hot start to the month of July.

Pleasant Conditions are Expected on Canada Day Across the Eastern Prairies

Canada Day Monday

Monday

Mainly Sunny
28°C / 12°C

Temperatures on Monday will be in the upper twenties in Southern Manitoba. Skies will be mainly sunny and winds will be light, making it a perfect Canada Day!

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of showers and risk of a thundershower
30°C / 16°C

Tuesday should see temperatures climb up around the 30C mark in most of Southern Manitoba. We may see some pop up showers or thundershowers as the atmosphere will be a bit less stable than it was on the weekend. Wind speeds will remain light, so conditions will generally be very nice.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly Sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thundershower.
31°C / 17°C

Wednesday will again be a hot day in Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will once again be around the 30C mark. There may also be a few pop up showers or thundershowers again on Wednesday, but they are expected to be even more isolated than on Tuesday. The wind will be breezy from the south or south-west, providing a bit of relief from the hot weather.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows hot weather continuing in Southern Manitoba through the foreseeable future. Models suggest that we will stay above normal for much of the next 10-16 days. The accuracy of these forecasts past the 7 to 10 day range can be quite bad in many cases, but the overall trend appears to indicate a hot first half of July. Typically these hot patterns don’t like to break down very quickly at this time of year, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we saw generally hot weather last through much of July.

Elsewhere in Weather News: June 29th, 2013

Australia Faces Flooding Problems

This spring has been disastrous flood-wise across the globe; hundreds of billions of dollars of damage to crops and infrastructure from a few significant floods such as the Chinese floods, European floods and closer to home; Albertan floods as talked about in last week’s EIWN. Extreme flooding continues this week, most notably in Australia’s New South Wales state.

In the past few days coastal areas of New South Wales have received copious amounts of rain. Consequently, flood evacuations have had to be issued for a few towns just outside of Sydney (Richmond Lowlands, Pitt Town, Gronos Point). The Warragamba Dam, located to the west of Sydney, was overwhelmed by the 150mm of rain that fell in a 24 hour period starting Wednesday, prompting for the flood evacuations. Many roads and a few key bridges in the area had to be shut down because of the overland flooding. In addition, a few search and rescue missions have had to be executed because of people trapped in floodwaters. Thankfully no casualties have been reported as of yet related to this flooding.

Rainfall June 29

Rainfall map for the past 7 days as of Friday. Circled in red the area experiencing flooding, localized areas of 200mm+. (Source: Australia’s BoM)

It appears as though a lingering trough of low pressure is to blame for all the rain on the eastern coast of Australia on Wednesday. Sydney and surrounding areas get on average about 130mm of rain for the whole month of June. Compared to this past week where in some areas 200mm (or more) have already fallen, these areas have already doubled their average rainfall for June, significant flooding is not surprising. This weekend appears to bring more rain to the coast of New South Wales, though not another significant rainfall event.

A Chance to Dry Out

Wet weather will finally give way this weekend to sunshine and warm temperatures as an upper ridge building into the western Prairies induces a dryer, more stable northwesterly flow aloft over Manitoba.

Friday

25°C / 14°C
A few morning showers giving way to afternoon clearning.
Saturday

27°C / 14°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

28°C / 15°C
Sunny.

We’ll see a few morning showers today as the dying remnants of an upper low cycle their way out of the province. Once the scattered showers end in the morning, skies will begin to gradually clear through the afternoon. We’ll see a high of 25 or 26°C with winds out of the north at 20–30km/h. We’ll see clear skies tonight as temperatures drop to around 14°C.

A high pressure system will begin to push eastwards across the Prairies this weekend which will bring some beautiful, dry weather to Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb into the high 20’s this weekend under sunny skies with no chance of rain in sight. Overnight lows will dip to around 15°C.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be in the first half of next week as a slow-moving low pressure system meanders across the Prairies. Until then, enjoy a sunny, warm and dry weekend!

Calming Down After A Wild Night

Things will gradually calm down after a wild night in Winnipeg which saw a highly developed squall line move through the city. Fuelled by the heat and humidity that built up over southern Manitoba through the day, it started as a few severe thunderstorms that fired along a trough line in SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba then quickly developed into an impressive line of storms that raced eastwards across the Red River Valley.

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Photo of a shelf cloud on a supercell in Southern Manitoba on Tuesday afternoon. Credit: @Erin_Shutterbug

Initially the storms brought golf ball sized hail and torrential downpours to southwestern Manitoba. The village of Reston, MB received 104mm of rain in just 3 hours. This was in addition to the nearly 200mm of rain they received on Friday night and then the 25–50mm of rain the region on Sunday as rain moved through the region, bringing their week total to over 300mm. With devastating flooding in the region, officials do no recommend travel in the area. They are looking for volunteers to help with sandbag and pump efforts; volunteers can register with the R.M. of Pipestone Municipal Office at (204) 877–3327. Some highways in the area are closed due to overland flooding.

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Photo of the squall line as it approached Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Credit: @lovestormsMB.

Here in Winnipeg, the storm rolled in around 10:50PM as near-constant lightning filled the skies. A very menacing looking squall line promptly pushed in producing winds as high as 90–100km/h that ripped through the city snapping some tree branches and producing some localized power outages mainly on the south side of the city. Rain hammered down with the central and southern parts of the city seeing 20mm of rain in under an hour. Northern parts of the city received a little less rain, only getting around 5–10mm with the initial line of storms. A large area of stratiform precipitation moved in and brought another 5–10mm of rain to the city through the night.

Things will slowly dry out and stabilize over the next few days as an upper ridge slowly builds over the Rocky Mountains.

Today & Tomorrow

Wednesday

27°C / 17°C
Warm and humid; afternoon clouds with scattered showers. Risk of a thundershower.

We’ll see some afternoon clouds today as the sun warms us up and destabilizes the lower atmosphere. Some scattered showers will develop with the risk of some thunderstorms as a shortwave pushes into Southern Manitoba coupled with a strong upper-level jet running along the International Border. There is little threat of severe storms today, but given the high dew points any thunderstorms that develop may produce quite intense downpours. They should move along at a decent speed today, though, so no one place should see too much rain. We’ll see a high around 27°C today.

Thursday

27°C / 15°C
Afternoon clouds with a chance of showers.

We’ll drop down to around 17°C tonight with skies gradually clearing.

Tomorrow will bring another warm day with some afternoon clouds and a slight chance of afternoon showers. Winds will pick up out of the northwest to 30 or 40km/h which will help push some of the moisture out of the Red River Valley and drop the humidity down to something a little more comfortable.

Friday

Friday

23°C / 13°C
Increasing cloud. Chance of rain overnight.

Friday will bring increasing cloudiness as an upper trough begins slumping southwards from the central/northern Prairies. It looks like any rain will hold off until the overnight period, and if it does end up moving in, amounts won’t be anything too extreme. At this point, it seems like only around 5mm would be likely. There would be no threat of thunderstorms with this system.

The weekend is looking pleasant with plenty of sun and highs around 25°C.