After A Mostly Dry Week, An Unsettled Pattern Returns

Brad Leave a comment

Conditions will turn unsettled over southern Manitoba as a deep upper trough develops over western North America this weekend.

RDPS 500 mb Wind & Height Forecast valid 00Z Monday May 30, 2022
A deep upper trough will develop over western North America in the coming days, sending Manitoba into a wet and unsettled stretch of weather.

The weather will change over the next few days as an upper low off the west coast moves onshore. As it moves into British Columbia, an upper trough will dig southwards over the Rockies. As it does, it will turn a relatively benign pattern over the Prairies into something much more unsettled.

After a beautiful Friday with temperatures climbing into the mid-20s, cloud will push into the Red River Valley this evening. A shortwave tracking eastwards along the U.S. border will support area of showers or thunderstorms through the night. They will develop this afternoon in southern Saskatchewan and drift into southwest Manitoba tonight. The showers will reach Winnipeg through the second half of the night, but also be weakening as they approach. It’s unlikely that there’s enough “oomph” left by morning for there to be any thunderstorms; the Winnipeg area will see a few showers taper off early Saturday.

Skies will stay cloudy most of Saturday with a few sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to around 20 °C, perhaps warmer if a bit more sun is able to peek out. More cloud will push in on Saturday evening as temperatures dip into the low teens.

The next disturbance will begin lifting northwards through the Dakotas on Saturday night. A broad area of showers and/or thunderstorms will develop across North Dakota on Saturday night and lift northwards. They’ll move into Manitoba early Sunday, and continue northwards through the day. Much of southern Manitoba will see showery conditions through Sunday with increasing humidity as the day progresses. While rainfall will be highly variable, it’s likely that much of the southern Manitoba will see 10–25 mm of rain through Sunday. Locally, depending on the strength of the convection, rainfall totals could reach 25–50 mm.

Temperatures will stay mild, though, with highs near 20 °C and a low on Sunday night in the mid-teens. Cloudy weather will continue on Monday with a chance for a few showers. Another disturbance is forecast to move through on Monday night which may bring more showers and thunderstorms to the region. With humid air in place, rainfall could be quite heavy. This will be a concern given the flood concerns that continue in parts of the province.

Long Range Outlook

Some more showers are possible Tuesday into Wednesday as yet another disturbance moves through the region. Cooler weather with with isolated to scattered showers will move in mid-week. The weather will finally stabilize for the end of the work week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Dry Weather and Seasonal Temperatures Settle Over Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

The Winnipeg area will finally see a stretch of pleasant temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday May 25, 2022
Warmer weather will finally spread across southern Manitoba this week.

Settled conditions and warm weather will persist through the work week in Winnipeg as an upper ridge slowly builds into the Prairies. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20s each of the next few days with overnight lows climbing from around 10 °C into the mid-teens.

Skies will stay mainly sunny over the next few days as well. One exception will be a bit of cloud will skimming through the region on Wednesday morning as a system passes to the southeast.

It will be generally breezy over the next few days with southerly winds increasing to around 30 km/h today, Wednesday, and Thursday.

A few weak disturbances will move through the province over the coming days, but they should mainly impact the Parkland and Interlake regions.

Long Range Outlook

Unsettled conditions will begin to push into the region on Friday night. A slow-moving low pressure system will begin to track across the southern Prairies and northern United States over the weekend. This system will bring a couple chances for showers or thunderstorms through the weekend, and then cooler, showery conditions next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.

Winnipeg & Area Begins to Dry Out

Brad Leave a comment

Rain will taper off in the Winnipeg area this morning, leaving behind cold conditions as the region begins to dry out.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday May 20, 2022
Very cool temperatures will flood the eastern Prairies in the wake of the departing rain.

Rain will taper off this morning in the Winnipeg area and leave behind mostly cloudy skies. Moderate northerly winds near 40 gusting 60 km/h will stick around through the day, flooding the region with much cooler air. Daytime highs will struggle to reach even our seasonal overnight low in Winnipeg; the city will top out at around 6 °C.

Conditions will improve in the evening as the wind begins to taper off and some clear breaks develop. It will be a cold night with lows dipping to around the freezing mark. Frost will be possible, especially in outlying areas, overnight.

After that, conditions will be on the up and up. Mixed skies on Saturday will give way to sunshine on Sunday, and daytime highs will climb by around 5 °C per day. Saturday’s high will be near 10 °C and Sunday should reach the mid-teens. Overnight lows will also ease towards the mid-single digits. With the sunshine on Saturday, a few scattered showers will be possible in the afternoon.

To start of next week, Monday will bring partly cloudy skies with a high in the 15–20 °C range. Overnight lows will climb into the 5–10 °C range for the start of next week.

Long Range Outlook

Next week begins to look decidedly more summery for southern Manitoba. Daytime highs will finally return to more seasonal values, sitting in the 20–25 °C range for most of next week. A few chances for some scattered thunderstorms are possible next week, but no widespread significant rain is in the forecast. Overall, it looks like a shift back towards more seasonal conditions with an opportunity to dry out.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

Unsettled Days Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see unsettled days ahead as several disturbances move through the region.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday May 18, 2022
The RDPS forecast model shows a notable swath of rainfall accumulation from Tuesday afternoon across several water-logged regions of Manitoba.

A slow-moving low pressure system moving across the region will bring cloudier, showery weather to southern Manitoba over the next couple days. Showery conditions will develop this morning over southwestern Manitoba and spread into the Red River Valley by late morning. The rain will be spotty through midday, but will likely become a bit more organized through the afternoon. The showers will taper off this evening, but that won’t be the end of things.

Today’s showers will come from a leading impulse, while tomorrow will bring the actual low pressure system through the region. More showers will push into the Red River Valley early Wednesday morning. The region will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms through Wednesday morning. The instability will ease through the afternoon, leaving just a few lingering showers.

This system will bring as much as 5–10 mm of rain through most of the Red River Valley, but the rain will be more organized to the north. From the Parkland area eastwards across the Interlake, 10–25 mm of rain will fall over the next couple days.

Another low pressure system will move into the region on Thursday, associated with a deep upper trough sinking into the Prairies from the north. It will bring more rain to the region, spreading from western Manitoba in the morning to the Red River Valley in the afternoon. This system could bring a wide swath of 10–25 mm of rain to much of southern Manitoba.

GDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Saturday May 21, 2022
Most forecasts show another 5–20 mm of rain across much of southern Manitoba with the system moving through on Thursday into Friday.

Northerly winds will strengthen over the region on Friday in the wake of Thursday’s low. While it will help clear things out, a few afternoon pop-up showers will be possible.

This unsettled patter will be marked by seasonably cool temperatures. The Winnipeg area will reach a high in the mid-teens today, then drop into the low teens for Wednesday and Thursday. Both Thursday and Friday will bring highs near 10 °C. Overnight lows will gradually drop into the low single digits as the week progresses.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions should stabilize on the weekend, with a return of seasonal temperatures by Monday. The next chance of rain looks to be on Tuesday night when another upper disturbance pushes across the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.