Stormy Friday Leads to Cooler Weekend

Brad

Severe weather is possible across southern Manitoba today as thunderstorms fire up in the afternoon.

3km NAM Simulated RADAR Reflectivity valid 00Z Saturday June 25, 2022
Most weather models show strong to severe thunderstorm activity developing over southern Manitoba on Friday afternoon into the evening.

A dynamic weather setup will develop over southern Manitoba today. To begin the day, a warm front lies draped west-to-east across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will warm into the upper 20s this afternoon as a humid air mass pushes northwards out of the Dakotas. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible beginning later this morning, followed by the chance for more potent thunderstorms later this afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but the main threats will be damaging hail and torrential downpours/flooding. Some thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado may be possible too.

Watch for any severe thunderstorm or tornado watches and/or warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada as the day progresses.

The unsettled weather will continue into the evening, then gradually taper off into the overnight period. Temperatures will head down to a low in the mid-teens overnight.

More cloud and unsettled weather will be around for Saturday as an upper low moves through the region. The morning will likely be cloudy with just a slight chance of some showers. Temperatures will climb only to around 20 °C with a strengthening west-northwest wind. As the upper low passes in the afternoon, the region will see a good chance of some more showers swinging in from the northwest. The wind will ease overnight and the showers will taper off as the system tracks off into Ontario. Temperatures will head down to the low teens by Sunday morning.

Finally, mainly sunny skies return for Sunday as a ridge of high pressure moves towards the region. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 20s with a light northwesterly wind that tapers off later in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to the mid-teens on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

It will be a bit unsettled next week as a relatively active pattern develops over the region. Stormy weather is possible again on Monday, followed by cooler temperatures and calmer weather on Tuesday. Again, Wednesday may bring more showers or thunderstorms that could possibly linger into Thursday. By the end of the week, a pattern of more settled, sunnier conditions should develop.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Warm Weather Ahead With Chances of Thunderstorms

Brad

Although the worst heat has broken over the region, Winnipeg will see a warm week ahead with several chances of thunderstorms.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday June 23, 2022
Hot weather will return to southern Manitoba on Thursday, but humidity levels should be more comfortable than this past weekend.

The upper ridge that brought sweltering heat this past weekend has pushed off to the east, taking the uncomfortable weather with it. In its wake, a shortwave is now lifting through the region and will bring unsettled conditions today.

While the Parkland and Interlake regions see frequent showers and/or thunderstorms today, Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will have two main chances. First, there will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms early this morning as a shortwave moves into the area. Skies will stay on the cloudier side through the day with another chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. Scattered showers or thunderstorms may be possible in between, but most of the activity should be either in the morning or later in the afternoon.

Temperatures will be much cooler today given the cloud cover with a high in the low 20s for Winnipeg. Humidity levels will also be a lot more comfortable in the mid-teens.

Skies will clear out overnight for Wednesday as a new large-scale weather pattern sets up over the Prairies. Over the next few days, a westerly flow will stay in place over the southern Prairies bringing seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Both Wednesday and Thursday should bring mainly sunny skies as the heat returns to the region; highs will climb into mid-20s on Wednesday then into the low 30s on Thursday. Overnight lows will sit in the upper teens both nights. There’s also a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday evening.

Long Range Outlook

The next weather system will be an upper trough will digging into the Prairies at the end of the week. It will bring more cloud to the region for Friday with another chance of showers or thunderstorms. The weekend should bring partly cloudy conditions to the region with highs in the low to mid-20s and lows in the low teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Hot and Humid Summer Weather Comes to Southern Manitoba This Weekend

Brad

The heat will gradually amplify across southern Manitoba over the coming days as a hot and humid air mass builds into the province.

NAM 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday June 19, 2022
Very hot and humid conditions will move into Southern Manitoba by Sunday.

After a couple cool, windy, and showery days across the region, summer weather is quickly rebounding back into southern Manitoba. Driven by an intensifying upper ridge, Winnipeg will see near-seasonal conditions today quickly heat up into the weekend.

It will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg today with temperatures climbing to the mid-20s under sunny skies. Winds won’t be much of an issue, swinging around to the east for the afternoon and picking up to around 20 km/h. Humidity will stay comfortable through the day with dew points around 10 °C. Temperatures will drop into the mid-teens tonight with some cloud moving into the area as a warm front approaches.

Saturday will bring a cloudy start to the day with some showers or thunderstorms possible through the morning into midday. Some sunny breaks will develop in the afternoon as temperatures head to a high in the upper 20s. Winds will strengthen out of the southeast to around 40 km/h with gradually increasing humidity. The dew point will climb into the mid- to upper-teens by the end of the day as the warm air continues to push into the region. Temperatures will stay very warm on Saturday night, only dropping into the low 20s with a gradually diminishing wind.

Sunday will bring dangerous heat to southern Manitoba as the mercury soars and very humid conditions develop. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures on Sunday will climb into the low to mid-30s across most of southern Manitoba. As this happens, dew points will rise rapidly as the day warms up, increasing from the mid-teens up into the 20–25 °C range through the morning. This heat and humidity will produce humidex values of 40–45, making for weather that can be dangerous to be exposed to for extended periods.

In preparation for the heat, ensure that if you have air conditioning its in working order. Limit your exposure to the heat on Sunday, drinking plenty of water and ensuring you can find breaks to cool off whether it be indoors, shade, or other cooling opportunities such as city-run splash pads (great for the kids!). If you know anyone at risk for heat-related illnesses such as elderly individuals, those without air conditioning or access to cool spaces, or some with other forms of chronic illnesses, organize a plan to check in with them or provide some way of cooling off. Be sure to check out more information about preparing for and managing heat-related illnesses.

Sunday night will also stay very warm with overnight lows only dipping into the low 20s. Some showers or thunderstorms are likely on Sunday night, but they will likely avoid the Red River Valley. They should develop well to the west-northwest and likely pose a more notable risk to the Parkland and Interlake regions.

Long Range Outlook

Hot weather will continue on Monday, but it won’t be quite as extreme as seen on Sunday; highs in the low 30s will combine with dew points easing into the upper teens. This will produce humidex values of 35–40, which when combined with the second night of very warm lows may still be an issue for some. Conditions will turn more unsettled for the rest of the week as cooler air brings more seasonal conditions back to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Weather Turning Unsettled This Weekend

Brad

Winnipeg will see another day of sunny and mild conditions before cloudier, unsettled weather moves into the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday June 13, 2022
Humid conditions will push into southern Manitoba by the end of the weekend with dew point values climbing into the upper teens.

Today is Winnipeg’s last day under the influence of the upper ridge over the Prairies. After a mostly sunny start to the day, temperatures will climb into the mid-20s for the afternoon. Skies will cloud over through the day as a warm front approaches from the west.

A few showers may be possible this evening, but the activity will weaken though the night. The warm front will stall southwest of the region on Saturday and continue to bring cloud to the region. A few showers may linger across the region early Saturday, but should taper off as the morning progresses.

From Sunday onwards, the upper ridge will slump southwards, allowing multiple disturbances to ride over it across the southern Prairies. While cloud will keep daytime highs in the low to mid-20s, southerly winds will raise dew points into the upper teens. This will give the region the first stretch of humid conditions this summer. Another chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop across the region on Saturday night into Sunday morning. That activity will clear out on Sunday morning, leaving behind mixed to cloudy skies for the rest of the day.

Long Range Outlook

Generally unsettled conditions will persist through the first half of next week as several disturbances roll through the region. A few periods of showers or thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will begin to improve on Wednesday with some sunshine returning the region, but there may be enough lingering instability for a few late-day showers.

Heading into the second half of next week, there’s strong indications that even warmer weather will begin moving into the region. Daytime highs may climb into the upper 20s by the end of next week.

With humid and warmer weather on the horizon, it’s a great time to check to make sure you have some fans in your home and that, if you have it, your air conditioning unit is working correctly. Heat stress is becoming more common in western Canada summers; ensuring that everything works before the warm weather arrives will help protect you. If there are any issues, you’ll likely find what you need easier and cheaper before the heat arrives. If you live alone, think about having someone you might check in with daily this summer during periods of extreme heat, especially if you don’t have access to air conditioning.

It looks like the shift into summer has finally begun; enjoy it! Especially after the winter we just had to endure!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.