Fairly Normal Start to the Week

Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out with fairly typical conditions for this time of year. No significant weather is expected.

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GEM-Regional predicted precipitation on Monday

Monday

Monday
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Flurries
-4°C / -7°C

Monday will be a cloudy day, with a good chance of flurries. These flurries will be fairly disorganized in nature, but could amount to a couple of centimetres in many areas. Models do suggest that some localized areas could see close to 5cm by the time this area of snow completely dissipates on Tuesday morning. However, confidence is very low in terms of predicting which areas might be in for these slightly heavier amounts. As such, I’ll just suggest that any location in Southern Manitoba does stand a small chance of seeing close to 5cm if heavier periods of snow get stuck over the area. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid minus single digits in most of Southern Manitoba. Parts of western Manitoba may get up around the freezing mark as the wind there will switch to westerly, giving a downslope flow.

Tuesday and Wedensday

Tuesday
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Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Flurries.
-8°C / -15°C
Wednesday
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Mainly Sunny
-4°C / -7°C

Tuesday is a bit of a tricky forecast, albeit in a non-threatening kind of way. It looks like we may get stuck in low-level cloud and possible light flurries through the day. Alternatively, skies may clear and it could be a fairly bright and non-snowy kind of day. In either case, high temperatures will be in the mid or upper minus single digits with a breezy north-westerly wind.

Wednesday should see sunny skies return. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain stuck just below zero, as a stiff southerly flow prevents strong mixing and maximum temperature rises. As a result, we’ll see high temperatures once again in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

The long-range still doesn’t look very spring-like unfortunately. Even worse than that, models continue to hint at a stormy pattern returning to southern Manitoba towards mid-March. If you’re hoping for spring, you’d better cross your fingers that a renewed storm track through our area brings rain, rather than more snow!

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 9th, 2013

Matthieu Leave a comment

Australian Waters Remain Active

This past week, Australia and its surrounding waters have remained active as yet another cyclone has spun up – this time in the Coral Sea. Cyclone Sandy, currently located about 1,200km north-east of Queensland, Australia, is headed in an easterly direction with sustained category one hurricane winds of 120km/h. The cyclone is too far off coast to adversely affect the state of Queensland at this time.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures with forecast track/intensity and cone of uncertainty (purple) as of Friday night. (Source: CIMSS)

Cyclone Sandy’s route is expected to shift to a south-easterly direction this Saturday but there is much uncertainty as to its destination after the forecasted three-day track. Almost all models agree that Queensland will be spared from this storm, but the island of New Caledonia is still at risk for a direct landfall. This landfall could have a significant impact on New Caledonia as Sandy is expected to continue to strengthen. Before the cyclone weakens, there is a good possibility that it attains a category four level with sustained winds of approximately 180km/h due to sea surface temperatures being very warm (29°C). If the storm does manage to avoid New Caledonia by taking a southerly track, it’s likely that it will die off in the Tasman Sea and not affect populated areas.

Shear

Shear values in yellow, as of Friday night. Low shear environment will contribute to Sandy’s intensification. (Source: CIMSS)

Australia’s cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th. Currently they are at the peak of the cyclone season. On average, 11 cyclones affect Australia per year and the tally so far this year (including Sandy) has reached 8 cyclones – a normal count for this time of the year.

Quiet Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will be fairly quiet this weekend as no significant weather systems are expected to track through the region.

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-5°C / -10°C
Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, slight chance of a flurry.
-5°C / -15°C
Sunday

Mainly sunny.
-10°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud today as temperatures climb up to around 5°C as a weak low pressure system exits the province and some cloud begins streaming up ahead of a Colorado Low expected to track through the Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperatures will drop close to –10°C tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud on Saturday as we sit on the northern fringe of the Colorado Low passing through the states. There’s a very slight chance of some scattered light flurries, but it’s very unlikely should any develop that they’ll end up producing any accumulating snowfall. Temperatures will once again climb to around –5°C and drop down to around –15°C Saturday night as skies clear with the Colorado Low moving off towards Southern Ontario.

Sunday will be the coolest day we’ve had in a while. While earlier in the week it looked as if it would be quite mild by weekend’s end, it turns out that the Colorado Low will pull down cooler Arctic across Southern Manitoba. Highs will climb to –8°C under mainly sunny skies.

Warm With More Snow on the Way

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba is busy cleaning up from the wallop Monday’s storm dealt with some communities digging out from under 50+cm of snow. Unfortunately, while temperatures will remain quite pleasant, another shot of snow is on the way later this week but with much less snow for most areas.

24hr. Precipitation Amounts from 12Z Thursday morning to 12Z Friday morning

Prediction from the GDPS showing roughly 5cm of snow for Winnipeg on Thursday into Friday. Generally 3–5cm should fall across the RRV, with potentially higher amounts along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

The Rest of the Week

Wednesday

Mainly sunny.
-5°C / -13°C
Thursday

Increasing cloud. Snow beginning in the afternoon. Generally 3-5cm.
-4°C / -8°C
Friday

A few flurries ending in the morning then gradual clearing.
-4°C / -9°C

We’ll see a beautiful day today with mainly sunny skies and a high temperature near –5°C. Skies will remain clear tonight as the temperature dips down to –13°C. For Thursday, we’ll see increasing cloud through the morning with light snow pushing into the Red River Valley through midday and the early afternoon. Temperatures will climb to around –4°C and we should see a couple cm or so during the day. Snow will continue through Thursday night giving another 2–4cm accumulation as temperatures dip to about –8°C. On Friday, skies will clear through the day with any lingering snow clearing out early in the morning. Temperatures should reach around –4°C again.

Total snowfall from this system should sit around 3–5cm for much of the Red River Valley, however there are numerous indications that there may be some enhanced snowfall just along and north of the low track due to enhanced instability north of the warmer air. This sort of enhancement is very sensitive to environmental conditions and can often also be extremely limited in extent, but at this point it looks like somewhere just north of the Trans-Canada Highway and Winnipeg may see closer to 7–10cm of snow from this system. I’m feeling like a broken record, but once again Winnipeg will rest right near the edge of the heaviest snowfall, and it could end up being quite a snowy night on Thursday night if this system tracks a little further south. We’ll have updates in the comments below, naturally.

The Extended Outlook

A fairly pleasant pattern is expected to set up over the weekend bringing a more zonal flow to the Prairies. This should bring in some very mild air with daytime highs climbing to 0°C by the end of the weekend. The downside to the situation is that, in contrast to the sunny skies called for by the current Environment Canada forecast, with all the snow we’ve had combined with the strengthening sun and warm temperatures, we could easily end up socked in with fog patches and stratus due to the abundant melting and strong inversion. So despite the rather optimistic outlook, there’s a chance that it could end up just sort of gloomy, damp and chilly. Here’s hoping that we can keep up enough mixing to keep the skies clear and we can enjoy an extremely pleasant start to next week!