Colder air is set to return by the end of the week as a low pressure system ushers in Arctic air as winds shift to the northwest behind it.
Before the cold weather returns we’ll have one more pleasant day. Although skies will be cloudy today, we’ll see temperatures once again climbing above 0°C through the Red River Valley with a light southerly flow. Conditions will begin to degrade overnight as a low pressure system pushes into Southern Manitoba.
The first threat with this system will be the potential for freezing rain tonight. As the sounding1 above shows, an AFL (Above Freezing Level) with sub-zero surface temperatures will be in place through much of the overnight period before eroding early Thursday morning. The saving grace for the Red River Valley could be that most of the precipitation looks to push north of the valley through the Interlake. If, however, any precipitation manages to wander through the RRV overnight, then there’s certainly a decent chance it’ll fall as freezing rain. Cooler air begins pushing in at all levels early Thursday as we move to the back side of this system and winds switch to the northwest.
Winds will strengthen out of the northwest on Thursday to 40km/h with gusts towards 60km/h as a band of snow slumps southwards with the cold front. At this point, it looks like snow will push into the Red River Valley mid-morning and last until the early evening (6-8PM). Snowfall accumulations will likely be around 5cm. Temperatures will start near -5°C tomorrow morning and fall to -8 or -9°C by the evening. We’ll head to an overnight low of around -15°C tomorrow night.
Sunny skies should dominate Friday and Saturday with highs near -10°C. A weak disturbance looks to bring a chance of light snow to the Red River Valley again on Sunday.
- A “sounding” is a way of plotting how the temperature and dewpoint change with height. The sounding is for a single location and plots the temperature/dewpoint with height in pressure coordinates as the vertical axis. ↩
