Warm, Unsettled Weather Continues

Warm weather will continue to dominate Southern Manitoba as we climb into the high 20’s almost every day this week. We’ll continue to see active weather as multiple systems move through the province over the second half of this week.

500mb Wind Field Valid Friday Night

Forecast 500mb wind field with heights depicting powerful upper low entering Southern Manitoba on Friday evening.

July ended up being a very hot month for Winnipeg, with 14 days of the month with daytime highs over 30°C. The month ended with an average temperature (highs and lows both considered) just over 22°C, which is about 2.5°C above the normal average temperature of 19°C. July marked the 13th consecutive month that Winnipeg has seen above-normal temperatures.

July marked the 13th consecutive month that Winnipeg has seen above-normal temperatures.

We’ll see a chance of afternoon thunderstorms across most areas of Southern Manitoba as a weak disturbance rounds the cold trough left behind yesterday’s system that brought a thunderstorm threat to Southern Manitoba. Chances for thunderstorms will be significantly higher through SW MB northwards through the Parkland region while the Red River Valley will see just a chance of thundershowers in the evening as the upper feature passes by. Daytime highs will be near 28°C through the Red River Valley with an overnight low tonight near a comfortable 15°C.

We’ll see a reprieve on Thursday, with no precipitation expected and a high near 28°C again. A powerful upper low will begin pushing across the Western Prairies bringing rain and cooler temperatures tommorow and will be the main weather-maker on Friday for us. Showers and thunderstorms will push into Western Manitoba on Thursday night and slide eastwards across the province through the day on Friday. It’s likey that we’ll see little precipitation on Friday as most of it pushes through the Interlake, however there’s a good chance of showers overnight on the backside of this system. We’ll see a daytime high of 24°C on Friday and a considerably cooler high near 20°C on Saturday.

Conditions will rapidly rebound through the end of the weekend as sunny skies return and temperatures shoot back up to 30°C.

July to End on a Hot Note

July looks to end hot as temperatures remain near thirty degrees for the first two days of the week.

Temperatures will be in the upper twenties or near thirty in Southern Manitoba on Monday

Temperatures will be in the upper twenties or near thirty in Southern Manitoba on Monday

The month of July will end just as it started, very warm. Temperatures on Monday will be in the upper twenties in Southern Manitoba. On Tuesday highs are expected to be around thirty degrees in all of Southern Manitoba. There will be a risk of thunderstorms Tuesday, with Western Manitoba having the greatest chance of seeing a storm.

The first couple days of August are expected to remain hot as well. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday should once again be up near 30C. At this point models are hinting at the potential for a thunderstorm outbreak later this week across parts of the Prairies provinces. At this point it is too early to say how Manitoba might be affected by this upcoming weather system, but it is something to watch.

Pleasant Start to the Weekend

After a few days that threatened storms for the Red River Valley, we’re heading out the other side with most communities seeing little to no rain. Steinbach is a notable exception, with over 100mm of rain falling1 through a rather unusual rainfall event early Wednesday morning which produced significant overland flooding2.

24hr. Precipitation Totals valid Sunday Evening

24 hour accumulated precipitation from Friday Saturday evening to Sunday evening.

A pleasant start to the weekend is ahead, with no chance of showers until Saturday evening and overnight. Today we’ll see mainly sunny skies as our temperatures rebound from yesterday’s system up to a high near 26°C. The overnight low tonight will be around 15°C. Warmer air pushing in aloft will allow temperatures to climb higher on Saturday and Sunday, with daytime highs close to 30°C expected. Humidity will remain relatively low for Saturday, however things may get a little uncomfortable on Sunday as dewpoints begin to climb closer to the 20°C mark.

On Saturday a disturbance entering the province will generate some showers and thunderstorms over SW Manitoba through the late morning and afternoon hours. The (thunder)showers will spread eastwards through the evening and overnight, however it’s currently looking like the bulk of precipitation will occur through the Interlake. The northern half of the Red River Valley looks to have a decent chance of seeing some sort of precipitation, however the odds look very slim that the southern half will see anything.

We’ll see increasing cloud Sunday afternoon as the back side of this system prepares to swing through Sunday night. As it does, there will again be a chance of showers for Winnipeg and, as it looks now, the eastern RRV. We’ll be sure to provide updates in the comments as this system approaches.

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Elsewhere in Weather News: July 28th, 2012

Severe Typhoon Vicente Plows through Southern Asia

This past week, typhoon Vicente spun up in the Pacific Ocean and made landfall near Hong Kong on July 23rd. The severe typhoon, of category 2 hurricane strength, amassed winds of between 155km/h just before it made landfall about 100 kilometres to the south-west of Hong Kong’s city core. Although the typhoon first touched land outside of Hong Kong, its hurricane-force winds did extend out into the city. In consequence, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) issued a level 10 advisory – the highest possible on the scale – advising residents to stay inside and closing non-essential services as well as schools. The level 10 advisory had only occurred 13 times since 1946, with this most recent advisory being the first in the 21st century (the last level 10 advisory was issued in 1999). Vicente had somewhat of an unusual track, being stationary 300 kilometres to the south of Hong Kong for 15 hours then strengthening significantly before moving inland the following day. The strengthening that occurred with Vicente, within this short amount of time (48h), had never been observed this close to land with prior significant typhoons that struck the region.

Vicente

RADAR image of Vicente as he made landfall on the afternoon of July 23rd. (Source: HKO)

Although Vicente forced the HKO to issue a level 10 advisory, damage was fairly minimal in the city – only minor damage to buildings was reported, but no structural damage. Flights in and out of Hong Kong were either cancelled or delayed which did cause some grief to travellers in the region.

Vicente did not stop its tracks in Hong Kong. It continued westward towards Southern China and Northern Vietnam where it dumped large amounts of rain during its passage. This in turn caused landslides and flooding in the mountainous region of Northern Vietnam, killing seven people with three still missing. The Vietnamese government has sent out rescue teams to look for the residents still missing. Damage is quite significant in the region, with most houses and crops destroyed due to the flash flooding and landslides.

Vicente Track

Red line depicting Vicente’s track, green circle are the areas of Vietnam affected by the flooding and purple circle is the area where Vicente intensified quickly. (Map credit: Google Maps)

Another tropical depression appears to be forming to the east of the Philippines with some thunderstorm activity, which is something to keep an eye on in the coming week!

Tropical disturbance

The tropical disturbance east of the Philippines. (Source: HKO)