One Cool Day Before Warmer Weather Returns

Brad Leave a comment

With the passage of a powerful cold front that swept through Southern Manitoba last night, we’ll see a slightly cooler day today before another upper ridge builds back into the Prairies.

500mb Winds

500mb wind field from the GEMGLB model portraying the incoming upper ridge. Image is valid for 00Z Sun May 13.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with daytime highs only around 15°C. Fortunately, skies will be sunny and the wind will be a bit calmer out of the west at around 30km/h. An upper ridge begins to build back into the Prairies for the weekend, though, once again pushing our temperatures up. We’ll see mainly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the low 20’s by the end of the weekend.

Summer Returns to Southern Manitoba…For a Short While

Brad Leave a comment

Beautiful weather is on tap for Southern Manitoba with plenty of sunshine the next couple days and positively summer-like temperatures. Things will return back to normal on Friday, after a cold front sweeps across the province on Thursday night.

500mb Winds/Height for Wednesday Evening

500mb Winds & Heights from the GEMGLB, valid for 00Z Thursday 10 May. The upper ridge has been highlighted over Manitoba.

A deep southerly flow has moved into Southern Manitoba underneath an upper ridge sliding east over the Prairies, pushing warmth from the Central Plains of the United States into our area. Temperatures will climb to around 20°C today with winds increasing to 20-30km/h out of the south by the afternoon. Temperatures will only drop to around 10-12°C tonight as the southerly winds keep our temperatures up in this warmer air mass.

Tomorrow the real heat moves in, and we’ll see temperatures soar in the Red River Valley, with daytime highs between 24 – 27°C. We’ll see a bit more cloud, though, and dewpoints in the low teens will make it feel closer to 30°C.

Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook valid 21Z May 10 to 12Z May 11

Day 2 thunderstorm outlook, valid from 21Z May 10 (Thursday afternoon) to 12Z May 11 (Friday morning). No severe thunderstorms are expected.

By tomorrow evening, a cold front sweeping across the province will move into the Red River Valley. With the extra moisture in the air from the higher dewpoints, CAPE values will be enhanced slightly, and we’ll be looking at 500-750J/kg of CAPE as the front pushes into the RRV. A band of showers and thunderstorms will fire along the cold front on Thursday afternoon over SW Manitoba and continue eastwards through the evening, crossing the RRV through the evening and pushing through the Whiteshell overnight.

Seasonal conditions are expected to return for Friday into the weekend.

Showers Today to Give Way to a Beautiful Week

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A well-developed upper low will blanket the Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with showers today as it slides southwards into the Northern Plains. Its exit will leave room for an upper ridge to build in from the Pacific Coast, flooding the southern Prairies with some beautiful warm and sunny days.

GEMREG 24hr. QPF valid Tuesday morning

24 hour accumulated rainfall from the GEMREG model valid for Tuesday morning.

Winnipeg will see showers off and on today with a cool daytime high of around 13°C. Winds will be in the 20-30km/h range, starting out of the SW and switching to the NW this afternoon. Conditions will be similar through much of the Red River Valley, with temperatures generally between 12-15°C and similar winds. Showers will clear from north to south overnight, with only a slight chance of some lingering showers or drizzle through the Morder/Winkler, Altona & Gretna areas first thing tomorrow morning. In total, most areas in the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg, will see 4-8mm of rain by the time the showers clear out.

We’ll see sunny skies tomorrow through the entire Red River Valley, with highs from 12-15°C again and northerly winds from 20-30km/h. For the rest of the week, we’ll see a big warm up as mild Pacific air pushes into our area. Currently, it looks like Wednesday will have high temperatures near 20°C and Thursday will push even higher towards the mid-20’s. Things will cool off for the end of the week as a cold front pushes through and brings with it showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Red River Valley.

Elsewhere in Weather News: May 5th, 2012

Matthieu Leave a comment

Editor’s Note: We’ve decided to move our weekly Elsewhere in Weather News from Monday’s post to it’s own post on Saturday mornings! We hope this will encourage a little more discussion in the comments about other significant weather and we feel that Matt has been doing a great job; since this “little segment” has become an interesting part of what A Weather Moment is, it’s only right to acknowledge Matt’s efforts and give him his own space! So without further ado, here is this week’s Elsewhere in Weather News, now on Saturdays!

Storms Run Rampant Across the United States

The SPC has had their hands full with severe thunderstorms across the Upper Mississippi Valley and most of the Midwest as the 2012 storm season gets into high gear as we enter the month of May. The strong storms have caused many power outages to several states, including Iowa and Minnesota. In addition to the dangerous gusts brought by these storms, tornadoes were spotted in Iowa on Thursday and in southern Minnesota on Friday. No injuries or deaths were reported.

Across most of the Midwest yesterday, storms ranging between strong to severe rolled through the area resulting in 163 large hail reports and significant flooding in some places. The line of storms crossed Lake Huron into Southern Ontario and dumped a quick 76mm of rain on Orangeville, Ontario –where the average rainfall is usually 75mm for the month of May. This deluge resulted in flash flooding which caused over $1,000,000 in damages to businesses and properties while forcing over a dozen people to be evacuated from their houses.

Storms near Orangeville

Infrared satellite picture taken at 6:45pm showing numerous storms around the time Orangeville got hit by the storm that caused the flash flooding. The colder the cloud top, the stronger the storm. (Source: Environment Canada)

On Friday afternoon an interesting sight could be seen associated with a thunderstorm rolling across Orange City, Iowa: a haboob, also known as a dust storm, was spotted crossing the city limits as the thunderstorm arrived. The haboob is created when a downdraft of a thunderstorm is strong enough to pick up dust and sand ahead of the approaching storm. As the dust gets picked up, a haboob forms and a wall of dust can be seen reaching as high as a couple kilometers into the sky. When the thunderstorm weakens and there are no more downdrafts, the haboob will either just settle or will become a “mud storm” if there is still rain falling that will combine with the dust particles.

Haboob in Orange City

Picture of the haboob entering Orange City (Source: Reed Timmer/TVN)

The best storm dynamics will stay in the High Plains for the beginning of the weekend, slowly shifting south and east as the weekend rolls along.