Elsewhere in Weather News: June 2nd, 2012

Matthieu Leave a comment

Flooding Returns to China

Another round of flooding in China left locals in the province of Guangdong scrambling for higher grounds this past week as floodwaters rose and swept away homes. As opposed to the flooding in north-western China featured in the May 12th post, this flooding took place in the south-east regions about 200km north of Hong Kong and was associated with a low pressure system.

Flooding

Roads turn into rivers as heavy rains fall in Meizhou, Guangdong. (Source: Euro News)

The large city of Meizhou, Guangdong, was caught in the middle of one the most severe floods this year. Some 210,000 residents living in the city were affected and 25,500 had to be evacuated from terrain that is prone to landslides and flooding, prior to these heavy rainfalls. As torrential rains fell, landslides took out more than 1,000 houses and the extensive rains caused over 4,000 hectares of farmland to be lost. In addition to that, six people lost their lives in the floods. The government has estimated the financial tally to be over 30 million dollars, taking in consideration damaged crops and infrastructure as well as services used to fight against the floods.

This rain is the last thing China needs this year, as widespread flooding has been occurring throughout the country. Areas at risk have included the north-west earlier this May, the south-east this past week and coming week. Also, currently, in the central region of China, crews are already prepping dikes since rivers are expected to overflow their banks in the coming summer months. The latter threat is due to saturated grounds combined with forecast medium-range models suggesting one and a half times average rainfall – China’s Ministry of Water Resources are on high alert.

Forecast rainfall

Map showing more rainfall expected in Meizhou next Tuesday morning. (approximate location of Meizhou with red circle, rain in shades of grey). Rain was not only expected on Tuesday but also Monday and Wednesday. (Source: weather-forecast.com)

A Chance of Showers Today, Mild Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A weak trough pushing across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, bringing with it some scattered showers or thundershowers. Things will clear out quickly, and we’ll be looking at temperatures in the mid-20’s for the weekend.

GEMREG QPF for Friday Afternoon

Total expected precipitation from teh GEMREG model this afternoon.

We’ll have a slightly more unsettled day today as a weak surface trough pushes into the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb up to just over the 20°C this afternoon before showers and thunderstorms develop over SW Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment. It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain this afternoon will be through the Western Red River Valley, with diminishing chances east of the Red River. By the time the trough gets to the Whiteshell, the threat of precipitation will likely be over.

Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day as sunshine once again dominates across Southern Manitoba and highs climb to around 25°C. Things will turn a little more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain blossoms over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain is still uncertain, however best indications are that we’ll see a cloudy day across much of the Red River Valley, with the bulk of the rain passing north of Winnipeg through the interalke region, with only a chance of showers for Winnipeg and areas south. It will certainly be a system to keep an eye on as the weekend progresses.

A Chance To Dry Out A Little Bit…

Brad Leave a comment

After a deluge of rain over the past 10 days, Winnipeg is finally set to see some sunny, dry weather. A high pressure system pushing through the area will provide sunny skies over the next couple days with daytime highs pushing back towards our normal high of about 22°C.

Winnipeg has had 46% more rain than normal since April 1

Winnipeg has had 46% more rain than normal since April 1. (KEN GIGLIOTTI / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS)

Winnipeg is absolutely soaked. So far this month, many areas of the city have seen over 100mm (3.94”) of rain, with some areas of the west end seeing closer to 125mm (4.92”). This is a huge amount of rain for a single month in Winnipeg; the Manitoba Agricultural Department released a report showing that Winnipeg has had 46% more rain than normal over the last 30 days. This wetter-than-normal month has broken a 9-month stretch of dryer-than-normal conditions for Winnipeg and the city has already shattered last year’s total summer precipitaiton. If summer is considered June, July and August, our 100-125mm of precipitation in Winnipeg this month trounces the 93mm we got through Summer 2011. In addition, through summer last year only 7 days had thunderstorms reported. So far in May alone, we’ve had 5 days with thunderstorms. All in all, we’re off to a wet start to the summer that’s already been more promising on the storm front than last year.

Over the next couple days, though, we’ll see the sun. A ridge of high pressure will move across the province today, bringing sunny skies, light winds and a high near 19°C. The high begins to move out of the region on Thursday, allowing a slight southwest flow to bring some warmer air for the day, allowing our daytime highs to climb just over 20°C under sunny skies.

We’ll see a slight chance of showers on Friday afternoon as a warm front pushes through the Red River Valley, bringing temperatures in the mid-20’s for the weekend.

Miserable Weather Will Slowly Move Aside

Brad Leave a comment

A couple more days of miserable weather are in store before we move toward a nicer weather pattern. Conditions will gradually improve as the week progresses.

Potential rainfall on Monday, May 28, 2012

An upper level low will generate rainfall over a large part of Manitoba and Saskatchewan on Monday

Monday will be another cloudy, cool, and even rainy day. A major upper-level low pressure system (as seen above) will be sitting over Southern Manitoba for most of Monday. This system will generate rainfall through much of Central and Southern Manitoba during the day, which won’t allow temperatures to rise much higher than the low or mid teens. Rainfall will be more persistent through Central Manitoba, where light rain will be present through much of the day. Areas further south are more likely to see showers in the morning, followed by more continuous rain in the afternoon and evening hours. Total accumulations in the south won’t be heavy, but as much as 5 or 10mm may accumulate by late Monday evening. Some light shower activity may persist in the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba on Tuesday morning, however Tuesday is generally expected to be a dry but cool day with high temperatures in the low teens.

Weather Map for Thursday, May 31, 2012

High pressure will move into our region later this week, bringing drier weather

Conditions will improve as we move later into the week with a high pressure system sliding into the region. The Wednesday to Friday period should be dry, barring perhaps an isolated shower or two, with temperatures rebounding back to near normal values. Wednesday’s temperatures should be in the mid to high teens in Southern Manitoba, while temperatures on Thursday and Friday will hover around the 20C mark. A series of low pressure systems are currently forecast to traverse Manitoba next weekend and as such the forecast for that time period is quite uncertain. More updates on the weekend weather will be available towards the middle of the week.