Seasonal Spring Weekend Ahead

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After Wednesday’s winter reminder, typical spring weather will return to the region for the region. A potential major spring storm looms next week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday April 10, 2022
Mild spring temperatures are likely across southern Manitoba on Sunday.

The main weather feature today will be a ridge of high pressure moving over the region. It will bring an end to the strong northerly winds seen the past few days with sunny skies today.

The ridge will shift off to the east on Saturday with a stronger low developing behind it in the western Prairies. This will spread some cloud cover into the region with strengthening southerly winds. As this low crosses the Prairies, it will bring seasonal highs and slightly mild lows to the Winnipeg area.

On Sunday, cloudy skies will likely give way to some late-day showers as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Sunday has the potential to produce slightly speedier snow melt as warmer weather arrives dew point temperatures climb above freezing through the day. The Winnipeg area could see daytime highs close to 10 °C despite the cloudy skies.

Most of the rain showers will lift out of the Dakotas and push northeastwards across the region. There is some uncertainty with the track right now and Winnipeg may end up missing out on the rain if things shift eastwards slightly.

Long Range Outlook

Monday and Tuesday will bring pleasant spring weather to the region. Through the second half of next week, however, the potential for a significant storm is brewing.

Most weather models have a potent Colorado Low forming on Tuesday that moves into Minnesota by Thursday evening. As it moves northeast, forecasts show large area of moderate to heavy precipitation. The moisture for this would be fed by extensive thunderstorm activity along the system’s frontal wave in the southeast flank. There is still notable uncertainty, but indications are that it’s highly likely southern Manitoba will be impacted by this storm.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Friday April 15, 2022
The ECMWF places Manitoba’s Red River Valley under the heaviest axis of precipitation from this storm system.
GFS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Thursday April 14, 2022
The GFS model produces notable precipitation over the Red River Valley, but over a smaller area and brings the system through earlier and faster.
GDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Friday April 14, 2022
The Canadian GDPS model has a solution between the GFS and ECMWF: a bit slower than one with a precipitation envelope that looks closer to the other.

This would likely take the form of an initial wave of snow or mixed precipitation on Wednesday, followed by moderate to heavy snow on Thursday. In this situation, all the precipitation would taper off for Friday. In this outcome, the region would see significant snowfall with at least 10–20 cm of heavy snow likely.

Some other models keep the system a bit weaker and more progressive; in those cases, the region would see significantly less precipitation with impact over a shorter period of time.

Be ready for the chance of a large spring storm in the future; we’ll be keeping an eye on the forecasts as they develop and have more details early next week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -4 °C.

Unsettled Weather Moving In

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Winnipeg will see several days of cloudy, unsettled conditions as an upper low moves through the region.

RPDS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday April 6, 2022
The Canadian weather models keep all of today’s rain south of Winnipeg.

An upper low moving across the Prairies will drive the weather in the Red River Valley over the coming days. It will support a complex of low pressure systems that amalgamate into a larger single low that stalls out over NW Ontario. As this evolution of the system occurs, it will bring several waves of precipitation to the Winnipeg area.

The first wave of precipitation will move into the region today. Rain will spread northwards out of the Dakotas midday into the Red River Valley and last through the afternoon.

How far north the rain pushes will be a bit of question. It looks likely that much of it will remain just south of Winnipeg, but a brief period of rain is certainly possible through the early afternoon. Some snow will likely mix in with the rain in the evening with periods of a wintery mix lasting through the night. The precipitation will ease on Wednesday morning.

More rain will push in from the east in the afternoon. This wave of precipitation will affect the entire Red River Valley this time, Winnipeg included. The rain should become mixed with snow late in the day, then change over completely to snow overnight. A few flurries will taper off on Thursday morning, but skies will likely stay cloudy through much of the day.

RDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Thursday April 7, 2022
A mix of rain and snow will fall across much of south-central and southeastern Manitoba Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Daytime highs over the next few days will hover around 3 or 4 °C with temperatures back to around freezing overnight. The wind will be quite noticeable over the coming days, though, making for chilly conditions. Moderate easterly winds will shift north overnight, then pick up to strong northwesterlies later Wednesday. These strong northwest winds of 40–50 km/h will persist through Thursday. The wind will finally begin to ease on Thursday night into Friday.

The week will end strong with a high in the 5–10 °C range and more sunshine. Temperatures will dip below freezing both Thursday night and Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will climb back above seasonal values on Saturday with a high near 10 °C. More cloud will move into the area ahead of another major low pressure system crossing the Prairies.

This system may bring some more precipitation to the region Sunday into next week, but there’s quite a bit of uncertainty at this point. Either way, a few days of seasonably warm weather and mixed to cloudier skies will start off the new week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -5 °C.

Gradual Spring Melt Continues

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Pleasant spring temperatures and variable cloudiness will continue to aid in a gradual spring melt across the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday April 1, 2022
West-southwest winds will usher warmer spring temperatures into the Red River Valley.

The week will end with a beautiful day in the Winnipeg area. Breezy southwest winds will help highs climb up close to 10 °C this afternoon under mainly sunny skies. Westerly winds will continue for much of the night near 20 km/h. Temperatures will dip below freezing as a passing cold front ushers in more cloud early Saturday morning.

Behind the front, temperatures will be a bit cooler and skies cloudier. The high in Winnipeg will cool to just above the freezing mark on Saturday as northwest winds taper off late in the day. Much of the cloud cover will stick around Saturday night. The low dips into the -5 to -10 °C range.

Sunday will continue cloudier, but temperatures will moderate back towards seasonal values with a high near 5 °C. Temperatures will dip just below freezing on Sunday night, moderated by milder air moving in for Monday.

Throughout the next few days, dew point values will stay below freezing and continue to aid the gradual snowmelt across the region. Combined with a lack of precipitation, this is helping to ease the flood risk across the region.

Long Range Outlook

The weather pattern will turn a bit more unsettled next week as several disturbances cross through the province. This pattern change will bring warmer weather more consistently to the region with daytime highs closer to 10 °C through the week. Rain is possible on a few days next week, but there is still too much disagreement between weather models to suggest any certainty.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

Windy Start To A Cold Weekend Ahead for Southern Manitoba

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An Arctic high’s strong northwest winds will bring unseasonably cold temperatures to Southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 15Z Friday March 25, 2022
Strong northwest winds will be in place over southern Manitoba today.

Strong winds blasting through the Red River Valley today will usher in much colder temperatures. Light snow will taper off this morning, leaving behind cloudy conditions as northwest winds of 50 gusting 70 km/h persist through the day. Temperatures will recover only slightly to a high near -6 °C this afternoon.

As the high pushes into the region this evening, skies will clear and the winds will ease. Temperatures will head down close to the -20 °C mark tonight.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 09Z Sunday March 27, 2022
Very cold March temperatures will develop on Saturday night underneath the Arctic high over Manitoba.

The Arctic high will sit over Manitoba on Saturday, bringing temperatures some 10–20 °C below seasonal values to the region. Skies will be mainly sunny through the weekend with highs near -10 °C on Saturday warming to near -5 °C on Sunday. Overnight lows could dip below -20 °C on Saturday night. Warmer air will begin working into the region by Sunday evening and the low will be much warmer in the -10 to -15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal temperatures will return next week with highs back near freezing. Plenty of cloud cover will accompany it with what looks to be a good chance of some snow on Tuesday. The weather pattern looks pretty stable through the rest of the week with highs above freezing, lows below, and variable cloudiness.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -8 °C.