Powerful Thunderstorm Rips Through Winnipeg; What’s Next?

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg Lightning
Photo by Phil Hossack, The Winnipeg Free Press

A powerful thunderstorm developed rapidly along an advancing cold front last night, pounding the city with heavy rain, strong winds and hail. Things looked like they would pass north of the city until the front reached about 30-40km west of Winnipeg, where rapid southward development of the existing storm line occurred. This storm, a rarity this summer, comes after a month and a half of hot, dry weather where thunderstorms constantly split as they approached the city and passed north of our south of the area. For storm lovers, we couldn’t have asked for more from a late-evening thunderstorm: great structure in the clouds, much-needed rain, some hail, and one of the most impressive light shows I’ve seen in a long, long time. Read on to see pictures and video of this storm in action!

I was able to capture this video from the west-end of town around 9:45 last night, shortly after it had stopped raining. I haven’t seen as much lightning in a single storm as the one last night in a long, long time:

Intense Lightning in Winnipeg (August 18, 2011) from buffaloseven on Vimeo

User submitted photo
Photo submitted by @hubertguiggsy on Twitter

Twitter user @hubertquiggsy sent me this picture of the storm. It’s a beautiful shot that shows the gust front crossing the city (this picture is facing North) with ample amounts of scud being sucked up into the storm.

Lightning + Mammatus
This picture is one of a few great ones at http://www.steinbachweather.ca from the storm as it moved through his area, such as the one above. I highly recommend you visit the site and take a look.

The Weather Network always has plenty of submissions, and last night’s storm was no different; here are some of the highlights:

Clouds
Clouds; submitted by Arienna Paul

This shot (Clouds) shows the impressive structure the leading edge of this storm had, with a well-defined lowering and gust front, complete with beautiful striations running along the main lowering.

Wow!
Wow!; submitted by Christina Unger

Seen from a different angle, Wow! shows us how ominous this storm looked as it approached. Scud getting sucked up into the storm as it advanced on the city, with nothing but ominous behind the gust front. Again, striations can be seen running along the gust front on the upper half of the lowering.

funnel cloud
funnel cloud; submit by Wendy Buleziuk

This shot, taken near East St. Paul, shows another beautiful shelf cloud. The photo is titled “funnel cloud” and I chose not to change that, but it’s important to note that there is no funnel cloud in this picture. The elongated strands of clouds pointing towards the lower left of the picture, protruding from the shelf cloud itself, is known as ‘scud’. This is very low level cloud that is generated by strong lift right ahead of the gust front. These clouds are indicative of a powerful thunderstorm, but do not have a direct connection to the development of funnel clouds or tornadoes.

Thunder Storm Winnipg
Thunder Storm Winnipg (sic); submitted by Greg Pecold

Another beautiful shot of the gust front as it advanced into town.

What’s next for Winnipeg? Cooler weather for today and tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds. It looks like there’s a chance of showers tomorrow afternoon/evening as a weak disturbance slides through the interlake in the northwest flow, although it looks likely that the showers will stay north of Winnipeg. Sunday may be a little more unsettled as another system moves by and starts to push the cold air out of the province. We’ll see temperatures rebound to close to 30°C Sunday afternoon as the system brings warmer air into the province, and then for the first half of next week we’ll be under the influence of a building upper ridge, which will bring sunshine and temperatures near 30°C for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another Warm, Sunny Day with a Chance of Late-Day Showers & Thunderstorms

Brad Leave a comment

Another Beautiful Day
A shot of Downtown Winnipeg, August 18, 2011

A low pressure system moving into the Interlake has brought yet another day of sunny skies and daytime highs near 30°C to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley today. However, by late this afternoon, a trough moving through the RRV has the potential to produce a few showers or thunderstorms.

A southerly flow ahead of an incoming trough is pushing warm air up the Red River Valley which will push daytime highs to the 30°C – 33°C range today across the Red River Valley. Along with the warm temperatures, the southery flow will help increase our dew points from their current 11°C levels to 16°C – 18°C by late afternoon. This will make it feel a little muggy, but all in all, a very nice day on tap for everyone in the Red River Valley (which may be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on your occupation).

1500Z Surface Analysis
1500Z (10AM Local Time) Basic Surface Analysis

A trough associated with this low pressure system currently sits along the Manitoba Saskatchewan border (represented by the dashed black line in the image above) will move eastwards through the afternoon. As the trough moves into the area this evening (around 6 or 7 PM), a few scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop along a line running north-south along the trough. Again, as usual, Winnipeg itself has a 50/50 chance of showers splitting around the system as sources of lift begin to move north and south as they move eastwards.

Model Image
3hr. Precipitation Amounts from the 12Z GEM-REG Aug 18 Model Run valid 03Z Aug 19

After this little evening blip, we move into a slightly cooler pattern as a cold trough swings across the province, giving us daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20’s for the next couple days. Saturday and Sunday offer a slight chance of showers as a couple weak impulses slide across the region from the north-west.

Early next week, a significant upper ridge builds over the Southern Prairies which will bring more heat and dry weather to the region. Beginning Monday, temperatures across the RRV will climb into the low 30’s and stay there for much of the week as sunshine and a southerly flow dominate for much of the week.

Chance of Rain Re-Enters the Picture for Winnipeg on Tuesday

Brad Leave a comment

Another low pressure system tracking through the Canadian Prairies has brought sunshine and hot weather for Monday, but will one of the thirstiest areas on the Prairies see any rain out of it?  Read on to find out…


Multispectral Satellite Image of the Canadian Prairies valid at 3:45PM in Winnipeg.

A strong low tracking across the northern Prairies has brought temperatures into the low 30’s to Southern Manitoba, with higher humidity creating humidex values of 35°C – 37°C over south-central and southwest portions of the province.  This warm, humid air has been brought in by a southerly wind ahead of a secondary disturbance tracking across the southern Prairies.

Things will change overnight as the entire system moves into our area and exits the province quickly tomorrow.  Thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave disturbance tracking through Southern Saskatchewan this afternoon, then develop into an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms as it moves into southwest Manitoba this evening as the low level jet (LLJ) begins to intensify.  The track of these two distinct features, the shortwave and the LLJ, will be crucial for Winnipeg’s chances of seeing any rain overnight or tomorrow.

Currently, the shortwave is expected to track near Winnipeg, but likely somewhere north of the city, while the LLJ should track eastwards through the Southern Red River Valley.  Should the LLJ pull off into North Dakota, the shortwave track further north into the Interlake, or some combination of the two, Winnipeg will likely see what we’ve seen for over a month now: a solid wall of rain that splits and goes around either side of the city without giving us a drop.

What do current indications show?  Well, so far the actual shortwave seems to be captured very well by most models, which is a good thing.  The GEM-REG model is very precipitation happy, bringing 10-20mm of rain through Winnipeg tomorrow, starting around 6-7 in the morning.


12Z GEMREG Model, 12hr. QPF valid 00Z Wed the 17th (Tuesday Evening in Winnipeg)

There are naysayers in the model world though.  Both the NAM and the GFS models hint at the splitting rain pattern:


12Z GFS Model, 12hr. QPF valid 00Z Wed the 17th (Tuesday Evening in Winnipeg)


12Z NAM Model, 12hr. QPF valid 00Z Wed the 17th (Tuesday Evening in Winnipeg)



Both models show significantly less precipitation than the GEM through the Winnipeg area, with heavier amounts to the North/Northwest and across the Int’l border in ND.  Ensembles paint fairly large amounts of precipitation over Winnipeg for tomorrow as well.

My gut feeling?  I think that this system will lift north quicker than many of the models are seeing, and a gap in the precipitation will develop as the LLJ separates from the shortwave.  However, I do think that the LLJ will be able to sustain enough precip to give us a batch of rain in the morning, but probably only 3-5mm.  Of course, if any thunderstorms survive to Winnipeg, that amount could be significantly higher.  I certainly don’t think it’s going to rain all day, but tomorrow still looks like our best shot for some significant precipitation that we’ve had in a long while.

Expect things to clear up by mid-afternoon as some drier air pushes in with the gusty westerlies that will move in.  The rest of the week looks nice with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid-20’s.  There might be a slight chance of showers overnight on Thursday into Friday, but we’ll take our battles one at a time.

What do you think?  Will Winnipeg finally see an end to this dry spell?

Dry Spell to Break with Showers Tonight

Brad Leave a comment

The stretch of dry weather Winnipeg has been experiencing over the past month should come to an end tonight as a significant low crosses across the Central Prairies.


Analysis of 20:45Z Satellite Imagery for August 7, 2011

A system that brought all sorts of severe weather to Saskatchewan yesterday evening, including a potential tornado touchdown east of Regina, is pushing into Manitoba tonight and bringing with it the chance of severe weather for Southwestern Manitoba and much-needed rain to the Northern Red River Valley.

After battering residents of Saskatchewan from the Alberta border all the way to the southeast corner of the province, the main driving force for the entire system began to slowly move eastwards last night.  As it pushes through Saskatchewan, the favourable conditions that existed through much of Saskatchewan have been pushed eastwards to eastern SK and much of southwestern Manitoba.


Watches in effect for Manitoba at 4:50PM local time.

Weather watches are out for severe thunderstorms through much of southwest and Parkland Manitoba.  Thunderstorms will continue to develop into the evening and as the low pressure system and associated trough line move into the area, many have the potential to become severe with the main threats being large hail through Minnedosa and Dauphin, and the slight chance of a tornado in addition to heavy rains and large hail through southwest Manitoba.


6hr. QPF from the 12Z Aug 7 run of the GFS model valid for 09Z Aug 8 (~4AM local)

Winnipeg and the RRV will have a slight chance of some showers this evening (with the off chance of a lightning strike or two), however the extremely dry low-levels, with dew points only around 11°C, will make it unlikely that any cells that move into our area will actually be able produce rain that makes it to the surface.  However, by 9 or 10PM tonight, the low and trough begin to enter the RRV and a large area of rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms will develop, resulting in a large north-south band of rain that will pass over the RRV tonight.  Most areas will see 5-10mm of the wet stuff with a slight chance of 15-20mm in areas that see a thunderstorm tonight.  I think that the risk for severe weather will stay in the southwest portion of the province today; overnight we should just see rain and a slight chance of a light show.

Monday will be one of the most significantly different days we’ve had over the past month.  On the back side of this low, cooler air dives down from the northern Prairies.  Much of the Southern Prairies will see highs of only 18-22°C with brisk northwest winds gusting to 50km/h, which will make it feel downright cool relative to the last couple weeks.  Here in the Red River Valley, we also have a good chance of showers moving down from the interlake into the area by the early afternoon.

After our damp, windy, cool Monday, things improve through Tuesday and we’ll be back into the high 20’s by Wednesday.  More rain may be in store for the later half of the week, but more on that later.

I, for one, welcome a nice rainy night.  So does my lawn…