Southern Manitoba will see the spring melt continue for a few more days, but cooler conditions are on the way for the weekend.
A low pressure system moving through the northern Prairies will bring very mild temperatures to the snow-free portions of the southern Prairies on Wednesday.
Mainly cloudy skies will linger behind the system exiting the region today as the moisture added to the air by the recent rain and melting snow keep things damp. A few sunny breaks will be possible over the next couple days, but organized clearing won’t arrive until Wednesday evening.
The region will see freeze-thaw cycles over the coming days with highs several degrees above freezing and lows below. This will further the — quite honestly, shocking in its rapidity — deterioration of Winnipeg roadways. If you value your tires, avoid those potholes!
Fog patches will also be possible overnight through the next several nights.
Some clearing will move into the region mid-week, but more cloud will arrive later on Thursday as another low pressure system crosses the northern Prairies. Thursday will be the warmest day over the next few with a high climbing above 5 °C, but a cold front will sweep through on Thursday night. It will usher in moderate northwesterly winds along with some more rain showers or flurries Thursday night into early Friday morning.
By Friday morning, colder temperatures will return to the province with a moderate northwest wind across Manitoba.
Once that system exits the northern Prairies, a lobe of the Polar Vortex will shift southwards into southern Nunavut. As it does so, cooler air will also push into the Prairies. This won’t result in any sort of deep freeze, but highs will dip down below zero for the weekend.
Long Range Outlook
The spring melt will resume next week as highs climb back up above freezing again. It’s likely that the region will see a lot more cloud as the pattern turns more unstable again, and more rain or snow may be possible in the first half of the week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -9 °C.
Daytime highs will continue to hover above freezing across southern Manitoba, continuing the gradual spring melt across the region.
Daytime highs will climb a few degrees above freezing over the Prairie snowpack the next few days, and into the teens over the snow-free terrain of the southwestern Prairies.
Winnipeg will see several days of benign weather ahead. Temperatures will climb above freezing each day with lows dipping back below 0 °C. Dew points will stay below freezing, which will help ensure a more gradual snow melt across the region. The continued spring melt will produce variable cloudiness over the next few days with a continued chance for morning fog patches. Wind-wise, breezy southerlies will give way to lither westerlies later today, followed by lighter winds gradually shifting easterly through the weekend.
Long Range Outlook
The next disturbance to impact the area will move through later Monday into Tuesday. An upper trough will move into central North America, producing an area of rain extending from the Gulf Coast northwards into the central American Plains. That rain will be sheared northwards along a deformation zone into a secondary shortwave tracking through the Prairies. This will bring rain/snow mix to southern Manitoba; depending on the speed of the system, it could result in notable rainfall through the Red River Valley.
Otherwise, the forecast is much of the same. Daytime highs continuing to sit above freezing with a refreeze overnight. Dew points below freezing should moderate the rate of snow melt, helping with the flooding risk. Enjoy the gradual return to spring!
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 0 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -10 °C.
Springtime is on the way to southern Manitoba, but will also bring a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday evening.
A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will move east across southern Manitoba on Tuesday night.
The the polar vortex retreating into the High Arctic, milder Pacific air has begun to flood across the Prairies. Temperatures climbed above freezing across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan yesterday, and will continue into southern Manitoba today.
Temperatures will warm across southern Manitoba today, but the snowpack will limit highs to within a couple degrees above freezing. An approaching low pressure system will provide more cloud to the region today, followed by precipitation this evening.
Southern Manitoba will see a wintery mix of precipitation tonight. Rain is likely along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor. North of that, freezing rain will fall through the Parkland and southern Interlake areas. And north of that, snow will cross through Swan River and the northern Interlake. Precipitation types will also mix along the boundaries, making for a bit of a mess in some areas.
In Winnipeg, 3–5 mm of rain seems most likely. When combined with the above-zero temperatures, this will work towards beginning to chip away at the snowpack in the area.
The precipitation will move out of the region early Wednesday, leaving behind cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures hovering a degree or two above freezing. A cool front will sweep through on Wednesday evening bringing a few flurries to the region.
Temperatures will struggle to climb much above 0 °C over the deep snowpack over the south-central and southeastern Prairies.
Mixed to cloudy skies will stick around for the rest of the work week. Daytime highs will climb a couple degrees above freezing while overnight lows dip below.
Long Range Outlook
Warm weather will continue through the weekend with highs above freezing and variable cloudiness. This week should provide conditions favourable for a gradual snowmelt with dew point temperatures largely staying below the freezing mark and temperatures largely hovering just a bit above freezing.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -11 °C.
The winter that seemingly never ends continues in southern Manitoba, but more snow may actually mark a shift towards spring-like conditions.
Another low pressure system will bring a swath of 5 cm of snow across Southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Long-suffering Winnipeggers, buried under feet of snow and frozen to the core by a second half of winter largely marked by below seasonal temperatures frequently plummeting below -30 °C, have plenty of reason to look at the forecast with suspicion. Hopes for spring have been dashed several times already this year as long-range warmth is crushed by yet another Arctic High descending from the north.
But…
Major Change is afoot. The polar vortex, anchored near Baffin Island the past while, will soon shunt northeastwards over Greenland. As it leaves, it will take the cold trough responsible for the persistent cold in our region with it. This will allow a moderating westerly flow to develop over the Prairies. As a result, the region should see a return to much closer to seasonal temperatures in the coming week. There’s a good amount of confidence with this larger-scale pattern change, too!
But, before we get that far, there’s the weekend weather to consider. This morning sees the region in the wake of yet another Alberta Clipper, complete with cold conditions, strong northwesterly winds, and another closure of Winnipeg’s Perimeter Highway. These conditions will last into the afternoon before winds begin to ease. The day will bring a few afternoon clouds, but it’ll stay cool with a high in the mid-minus teens. Tonight will be clear and cold with a low near -25 °C.
Another low pressure system will begin moving from northern Alberta towards the Manitoba Lakes on Saturday. As its warm front approaches the region in the morning, it will bring increasing cloud as southerly winds strengthen. Blowing snow will develop over the region midday, then conditions will deteriorate mid-afternoon as snow moves into the region. Travel conditions will likely be poor between noon and 9 PM on Saturday. The snow will taper off overnight with 3–5 cm likely through most of the Red River Valley.
This system will, in addition to the wind and snow, bring warmer temperatures into the region. Temperatures will climb to the warm side of -10 °C by Saturday evening. Temperatures will continue to warm into the 0 to -5 °C range through the evening hours. The region will see a low a bit below -10 °C by Sunday morning.
Sunday marks the beginning of daylight savings time, so don’t forget to spring your clocks forward and hour!
Sunshine returns to the region on Sunday with easing northwest winds and a high in the -5 to -10 °C range. Temperatures will cool to the mid-minus teens on Sunday night with light winds a partly cloudy skies.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will mark the transition towards warmer weather, but how warm it gets will be limited by the immense snowpack over southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb into the -5 to -10 °C range on Monday, followed by a warm frontal passage on Monday night. This will mark the start of a push of milder Pacific air into the region.
A surge of much warmer, spring-like temperatures will begin building across the Prairies on Monday.
Forecast daytime highs for Tuesday through Saturday all sit above freezing; anywhere from 2 to 4 °C above zero. Those temperatures might be tricky to reach without a strong wind keeping the lower atmosphere well-mixed. More likely, the region will see temperatures up to a couple degrees above 0°C. Temperatures warmer than that will be tied to areas with less snow or more exposed concrete (e.g. downtown Winnipeg may see slightly warmer temperatures).
The warmer temperatures will begin melting the snow pack over the region. With dew point values staying at or below freezing, no unusually rapid melt is expected. The warm air combined with the widespread snowpack should result in quite a bit of cloud cover through the week. More sun is possible if southwest or westerly winds develop, helping mix drier air into the Red River Valley.
While we’ve seen plenty of broken spring promises so far this year, it looks like a near-certainty that southern Manitoba will finally see some relief from the cold begin next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.
