Unsettled Weather in Store Next Week

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Having broken the 30° barrier another time in the 2010 summer, summertime sun will give way to more unsettled weather next week.

A weak cold front will pass across Southern Manitoba tonight, bringing with it a very slight chance of showers (most likely nothing) and moving us into a cooler airmass for tomorrow, which should be a mostly cloud day.

By Monday morning, a warm front (shown above in the 850mb temperatures) will be positioned SW-NE across Southern Manitoba, extending from a surface low positioned in central North Dakota.  For several days, as the low moves northeast along the baroclinic zone, scattered showers will ride along the warm front.  Each night, there exists a potential for non-severe nocturnal thunderstorms in the RRV and east near the intersection of the warm front and a weak 850mb jet extending up into Southern Manitoba.  Most of the energy associated with the 850mb jet will remain in the states, so I don’t think that any severe weather will be on tap.

Get out and enjoy tomorrow, Sunday through Wednesday will be cooler (think low 20’s for highs) and rather unsettled, with mainly cloudy skies with occasional sunny breaks and showers lurking around during the days, with areas of organized precipitation occurring overnight. on Sunday night and Monday night.

Cuts Jeopardizing Quality of Environment Canada’s Weather Service

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Cuts Jeopardizing Quality of Environment Canada’s Weather Service

This is a must-read report on the quality of the weather data aquisition/observation network present in Canada.

Most of what is mentioned in this article is true, and unless Canadians begin to let their government representatives know that their weather forecast is important to them and that they care whether or not Canada is present on the world-stage when it comes to climate & weather science then things will probably only get worse.

Our climate archives are almost a joke as is, and they’re getting worse.

What are your thoughts?  Does weather matter to you?  Do you care if your forecast is good?  If you’ve been around for a few years, have you noticed a change in the quality of observations and forecasts?

Hot Today, Gone Tomorrow

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Temperatures in the low 30’s combined with dewpoints in the low 20’s will make it feel like 40 degrees today.

A slow-moving low pressure system associated with a sharp, digging upper trough over the west coast is bringing southerly winds to the RRV under strong southwesterlies aloft.

850mb temperatures are climbing into the mid-20’s ahead of these features, which when combined with a southerly 40G60 km/h wind and sunny skies, will result in the temperatures soaring into the low 30’s today across much of Southern Manitoba, with temperatures reaching to near 35°C just on our side of the international border.  The strong winds will also last into the evening, keeping the air well mixed, which means we can expect very warm temperatures (> 25°C) probably past midnight.

Tomorrow we will recover a few degrees from our overnight low and then cool in the afternoon with the passage of a cold front.  There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow associated with the cold front, however timing of the passage will be critical in determining who will or won’t get any precipitation/storms.  Currently, models are suggesting that the cold front precipitation will fire up just east of Winnipeg, so areas like Dugald & Steinback would see afternoon showers.  The GEM has been under-doing the lift associated with this entire system, however, and positioning will be crucial, so it’s too early to say much, other than tomorrow will be cooler, cloudier, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will hang around the RRV from late morning to the evening hours.

A Few Showers Tomorrow, Then Summer Returns!

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Showers will move across Southern Manitoba tomorrow as a weak Alberta Clipper moves through the province. Then, summer returns.

A quickly-moving wave currently over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border will move southeast across Saskatchewan and then veer East and head across Southern Manitoba tomorrow. Along the way, it will lose a fair amount of energy and as a result, we can expect scattered showers or rain tomorrow for a good chunk of the Red River Valley. It looks like there will be very little potential for any convection with the passage of this system.

After this system moves out of the province Tuesday night, winds will slowly veer and start blowing out of the south again. It will not take long for summer to return with daytime highs in the mid-to-high 20’s by the end of the week. Dewpoints will also rise to the mid-to-high teens by Sunday as well, which will solidly cement us as “back in summer.”

As for active weather, after tomorrow, it looks like the next rainy days could be Saturday or Monday, but that’s a long ways out and we’ll wait and see what sets up. Enjoy the warmer weather that’s on the way later this week!