Sunshine and Mild Early-Winter Warmth Ahead

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Benign and pleasant early winter weather will settle in for Winnipeg this weekend.

The broad shift in the upper-level weather patterns we talked about earlier this week are underway. Gone is the Arctic vortex locked over Hudson Bay, allowing an upper ridge to build eastwards off the Pacific. This will be the dominant weather feature for the next couple days before it flattens out for the end of the weekend. Instead of being replaced by an upper trough and the associated cold air that comes with it, though, a generally zonal to west-southwest flow will develop aloft, continuing to spread mild temperatures across the southern Prairies.

As a result, Winnipeg’s forecast is quite pleasant for the days ahead. Right through the weekend into next week, the area will see daytime highs in the -5 to 0 °C range. A couple of these days may even see temperatures climb above freezing. Overnight lows will be similarly mild, generally falling in the -5 to -10 °C range.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday December 12, 2021
Very mild December temperatures will spread across the southern Prairies this weekend. Most areas will see highs above freezing on Sunday.

Winds will be light for the region today, but for the weekend southerly winds around 20–30 km/h will develop. The windiest conditions should end up over the western Red River Valley where the escarpment can interact with the westerly component to the winds and produce slightly breezier conditions.

Along with these pleasant conditions will be plenty of sunshine; the Winnipeg area will see mainly sunny skies through the weekend. Some cloud cover will begin moving in next Monday and Tuesday.

Long Range Outlook

The next disturbance to impact the region will move through in the middle of next week. Forecasts show it could bring around 5 cm of snow to the region followed by breezy northwest winds and return to more seasonal temperatures. The overall weather pattern after that looks somewhat unsettled with a chance for more snow on Friday/Saturday and potentially again to start off the next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

A Gradual Warm-Up For Southern Manitoba

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Cold temperatures will stay in Winnipeg for another night, then a gradual warming trend begins for the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday December 8, 2021
Very cold temperatures of -25 to -30 °C will develop over southern Manitoba on Tuesday night.

Before that pattern shift occurs, though, it will be another cold day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will moderate more than they did yesterday with most areas seeing a high in the mid-minus teens today. That will come with plenty of sunshine too, save for a few afternoon clouds. Another Arctic high moving through will send lows into the -25 to -30 °C range tonight under clear skies.

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the pattern transition as an upper trough swings into the Prairies. It will spawn a pair of low pressure systems: one over the northern Prairies along the Arctic front and another over southern Saskatchewan along a push of occluding Pacific air. This area of low pressure will push up against the Arctic ridge exiting Manitoba, making for a relatively unpleasant day in the Red River Valley. Skies will cloud over on Wednesday morning as warmer air begins to push in aloft, followed by strengthening southerly winds. Winnipeg can expect to see winds of 40–50 km/h by the end of the day. Temperatures across the region will climb to around -10 °C by evening.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 00Z Thursday December 9, 2021
Moderate southerly winds will develop over southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

This system will then push snow from western Manitoba into central Manitoba on Wednesday night. Over southern Manitoba, the snow will ease to just a few flurries if much of anything with only 1–2 centimetres possible. Those southerly winds will continue through much of the night as temperatures rise to around-5 °C by Thursday morning.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 18Z Thursday December 9, 2021
The next disturbance moving into Manitoba will bring snow mainly to central and northern portions of the province on Wednesday night.

After that, the broader weather pattern will change. The Arctic Vortex, currently sitting over Hudson Bay, will start to retreat northwards. This will allow a more westerly flow to develop over the Prairies, spreading milder Pacific air into the region. Daytime highs will rise into the -5 to 0 °C range for the end of the work week.

There should be a fair amount of sunshine after skies clear out on Thursday that lasts into the weekend. The southerly winds will ease and shift westerly on Thursday as the skies clear out.

Long Range Outlook

Milder temperatures stay right through the weekend with highs likely climbing above freezing on Sunday. Forecasts show a bit more cloud moving into the region for next week, but mild temperatures continue with highs near or a couple degrees below 0 °C. The next notable chance for snow in the region may come next mid-week when the next disturbance moves into the region.

Snowy Weekend Ushers Winter Blast Into Southern Manitoba

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Winnipeg will see a couple more mild days before a passing low brings snow, gusty northerly winds, and much colder temperatures to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday December 3, 2021
Southern Manitoba will more seasonably mild conditions on Friday and Saturday.

A strong, zonal flow aloft will continue to spread mild Pacific air across the Prairies over the next couple days. This will keep Winnipeg’s high temperatures in the -5 to 0 °C range through Saturday under variable cloudiness.

The next notable weather system will be a low pressure system moving through the northern United States this weekend. This system will bring two distinct weather events to southern Manitoba, beginning on Saturday night.

The first phase of this system will be an area of light snow that spreads across southern Manitoba on Saturday night. Primarily from the Trans-Canada Highway (TCH) corridor and south, light snow will move from southwestern Manitoba on Saturday evening to Lake of the Woods by midday Sunday. Accumulations with this first wave of snow will increase from 0–2 cm along the TCH corridor to 5–10 cm along the international border.

RDPS 24hr Snow Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Monday December 6, 2021
Another swath of snow will fall across southern Manitoba on Saturday night into Sunday, but there is some uncertainty in how far north it will extend.

The second phase of this system will be an arctic cold front that sweeps through the region Sunday afternoon into the evening. This front will support some flurries as it moves through as breezy northerly winds shift to the northwest. Temperatures will hover around -6 or -7 on Sunday, but for those planning on attending the football game, note that wind chills will be closer to -15 and it’ll be a brisk wind that develops later in the afternoon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday December 6, 2021
Bitterly cold Arctic air will surge southwards through the Prairies by Monday morning with widespread temperatures of -20 to -30 °C.

Skies will clear out behind the front on Sunday night as winds die off. Temperatures across the region will plummet to a low of -20 to -25 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Below seasonal temperatures will linger over the region to start next week with daytime highs of -15 to -20 °C on Monday and -15 to -10 °C on Tuesday. Seasonal conditions will move in on Wednesday, followed by a warmer Thursday with a chance of snow. Cooler temperatures are forecast to return for next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

Warm Week Ahead For Winnipeg To Bring A Wintery Mix

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Early-season winter warmth will continue in Winnipeg, bringing pleasant conditions along with a mid-week wintery mix.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday November 30, 2021
More early-winter warmth will spread across the southern Prairies this week.

A series of low pressure systems will cross the Prairies this week, spreading more mild air into the region. As a result, Winnipeg will continue to see seasonably warm this week. Daytime highs will sit in the -5 to 0 °C range, but Wednesday will bring temperatures above zero into the low to mid-single digits. Lows will also follow suit, staying several well above the seasonal normals.

The first low pressure system will begin moving into Alberta later today, pushing a warm front eastwards into southern Manitoba. This will spread an area of light snow into western Manitoba this afternoon that will move into the Red River Valley this evening. This system will produce a couple centimetres of snow as it moves through the region.

Alongside this, though, will come another risk of freezing rain. The risk will begin Tuesday afternoon in western and southwestern Manitoba. It will then spread into the Red River Valley overnight into Wednesday morning. The greatest threat for ice accumulation is over southwestern Manitoba, but slippery conditions will be possible throughout the risk area.

NAM Total Accumulated Freezing Rain Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday December 1, 2021
Although forecast models are outlining two areas of freezing rain on Tuesday/Wednesday, the risk will extend across much of southern and southwestern Manitoba.

Sunshine will be a relatively rare commodity over the coming week. Today will start off with plenty of sun, but once the cloud arrives later in the day, it’ll stick around through Thursday. A few sunny breaks are possible then, but no widespread clearing trend is likely until the end of the week.

Winds will be variable through the first half of the week, but a cold front passing through the region on Wednesday evening will usher in northwesterly winds near 40 km/h that should ease to light by Thursday morning.

A few more flurries will be possible Thursday night into Friday as another low pressure system crosses the province.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler air will filter into the region this weekend and send daytime highs into the -5 to -10 °C range. This shift in temperatures is forecast to persist into next week with near-seasonal overnight lows. Some more light snow is possible Saturday evening into Sunday, then again on Monday night.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.