November Storm To Bring Snow, Wintery Mix to Southern Manitoba

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The warm weather is on the way out thanks to a slow-moving storm system that will bring a mix of rain and snow to the province.

Winter is on the way for southern Manitoba. Precipitation will spread across the province through the morning hours, beginning as snow over much of western Manitoba and falling predominantly as rain over the Red River Valley. The precipitation will ease in the southwest corner of the province this evening, but will continue overnight through WestMan southeastwards through the Red River Valley and the southeastern corner of the province. Cooler air filtering in overnight will bring an end to all rain across the province as it switches over to snow.

The snow will continue across all of southern Manitoba on Thursday, including the southwest corner as snow returns to that area. Winds will intensify as a potent low pressure centre lifts towards Lake Superior while an area of high pressure builds into northern Manitoba. The Red River Valley will see northerly winds of 40–50 km/h combine with falling snow through the day, making for fairly miserable conditions across the region. Travel conditions will continue to deteriorate through the day.

Light snow will continue into Thursday night, finally tapering off closer to Friday morning. A few flurries will linger into Friday, but conditions should improve through the day.

This will be a major winter storm for many parts of the province. Here in Winnipeg, the city will likely see 5–10 mm of rain today, followed by 5–10 cm of snow tonight. By the time the snow tapers off on Friday morning, there could be quite a bit of snow on the ground. There’s some disagreement across models, and the near-freezing temperatures will complicate things, but it’s possible Winnipeg will see 15–25 cm of snow by Friday morning.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall (10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Friday November 12, 2021
Winter will arrive in southern Manitoba this week with heavy snowfall across many areas.

Flurries will taper off on Friday, leaving behind cloudy skies and breezy conditions.

Other parts of the province will be hit even harder, with the potential for 40–50 cm of snow from portions of WestMan east-southeast across the Interlake and towards SE MB.

Temperatures in Winnipeg will hover around +3 °C today, then gradually cool towards the evening. Temperatures will drop to a low near -1 °C tonight, and then more or less hover there right through Thursday. Temperatures will dip to a low near -3 °C on Thursday night, and recover only a degree or two on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

After a brief break, another disturbance moving across the Prairies will bring some light snow to the region on Saturday afternoon. It will exit quickly, leaving cloudy skies for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal values.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 0 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -8 °C.

Mid-Week Low Brings Warm Weather To An End

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A low pressure system that will move through the region will bring an end to Winnipeg’s stretch of beautiful late-fall weather. Rain, snow, and cooler conditions are on the way.

But first, a couple more pleasant November days lie ahead for the city. Winnipeg will see plenty of sunshine over the next couple days with highs in the 8–10 °C. Winds will be breezy today out of the west at 20–30 km/h, then ease slightly for Tuesday. Overnight lows will dip to around the freezing mark.

On Wednesday, a low pressure system will move from Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba, spreading cloud and rain across the province. Most areas in the Red River Valley should see 5–10 mm of rain through the day. Winds will start out at 20–30 km/h out of the southeast, then ease to light as the low moves over the Red River Valley in the evening. Temperatures will be much cooler with a high near 3 °C.

RDPS Forecast 12hr. Precipitation Accumulation valid 00Z Thursday November 11, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see rain on Wednesday.

Rain may become mixed with snow late in the day, then will change completely over to snow sometime overnight as temperatures drop below freezing.

Long Range Outlook

The seasons will change quickly this year as the region will look a lot more like winter by the end of Thursday. Moderate northerly winds of 30–40 km/h will develop behind the low and continue to usher cooler air into the region. Snow will continue through much of the day on Thursday with 5–10 cm accumulation likely by Thursday evening. Some periods of light snow will likely continue through Friday, and a bit of light snow may be possible with a weak low on Saturday.

Temperatures will hover near seasonal values right through the weekend with highs around the freezing mark. Overnight lows will dip into the mid-minus single digits.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -8 °C.

Temperatures Set to Soar This Weekend

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Winnipeg will see daytime highs climb over 10 °C above seasonal normals this weekend as a surge of Pacific warmth washes over the region.

Winnipeg will see very mild November weather over the next few days. While some of the mild air is in place already, today will be a semi-typical “transition day” for the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around 10 °C in the city today with breezy southerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h. Cloud cover should increase today, beginning with partly cloudy skies this morning giving way to mixed to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon.

The southerly winds will ease and shift westerly this evening as a trough moves through the area. Skies should clear out behind it as temperatures dip to a low near +4 °C.

With a westerly flow in place for the weekend, even warmer daytime highs will move into the region. The region will see mainly sunny skies with light west-southwest winds. The high in Winnipeg will reach 13 or 14 °C, making for an absolutely beautiful early November day. Temperatures will fall to a low near +1 °C with partly cloudy skies on Saturday night.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday November 6, 2021
Very mild early November temperatures will spread across the southern Prairies this weekend.

More pleasant weather is on the way Sunday with highs back up into the low teens. Skies should be partly cloudy again with light winds. Lows will dip down again to around +1 °C.

Long Range Outlook

The beautiful weather will continue into the start of next week with highs near 10 °C on Monday and Tuesday. The overall pattern will begin to change mid-week as cooler air starts pushing southwards. Temperatures will slide back towards seasonal values with unsettled conditions through the second half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

Warming Up in Winnipeg

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The weather is going to warm up in Winnipeg this week as an upper ridge builds across the Prairies.

Despite the cold start to the day, today will be a pleasant change from the weather of the past few days in Winnipeg. With the worst of the Arctic ridge to the east, the city will see temperatures climb to a high near 7 °C under sunny skies. Winds won’t be too much of an issue, either, staying light out of the south. Weak ridging will stay over the region tonight which, combined with the light southerly wind, will allow temperatures to fall back to a low near -6 °C.

On Thursday, some warmer air will begin pushing towards Manitoba as an upper ridge builds eastwards. This will bring a few clouds back along with southerly winds of 20–30 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near 8 °C in the city. More cloud will push in overnight as a low pressure system begins moving eastwards out of Alberta. With that cloud will come more warm air and southerly winds up to around 30 km/h. This combination of cloud and wind will keep the overnight lows seasonally mild at around +2 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday November 5, 2021
Mild Pacific air will sweep across the Prairies over the remainder of the week.

Friday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region as a low pressure system crosses the province. The southerly winds will gradually weaken through the day as a trough moves into the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be held back a bit by the cloud cover, but the area should still see highs near 9 or 10 °C. There may be a slight chance of rain showers on Friday evening, but much of the precipitation associated with this system should be weakening as the trough advances eastwards. Temperatures will stay mild on Friday night as the trough passes and winds shift westerly. Winnipeg will see a low near +3 °C.

Long Range Outlook

The seasonally warm weather will stick around for the weekend with highs climbing into the low teens. Overnight lows should stay above freezing through the weekend. A change in the weather looks to arrive next Wednesday when a system moving through the Prairies brings several days of unsettled conditions as it sweeps the Arctic front back south across the region. Near-seasonal temperatures should return in the second half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.