Southern Manitoba Soaking Marks Arrival of Cooler Weather

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A Colorado Low will bring widespread rain to southern Manitoba today and usher in cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.

Winnipeg will see cloudy skies today with rain beginning midday as it spread northwards out of North Dakota. Rain will move into all of southern Manitoba today and gradually lift northwards through the night. The organized rain should taper off by Thursday morning across much of southern Manitoba.

Rainfall totals in Winnipeg will likely sit in the 20–30 mm range with slightly higher amounts to the west along the Red River Valley escarpment. Much of southwestern Manitoba will likely get a good soaking with 25–40 mm possible throughout that region. Rain will also fall to the east of the Red River Valley, but accumulations should be a bit less in the 15–25 mm range.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 18Z Thursday October 14, 2021
A Colorado Low will bring a proper soaking to southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

Temperatures will climb to around 10 °C today in Winnipeg with brisk northeast winds strengthening to 40 gusting 60 km/h. Temperatures will keep rising through to around 12 °C overnight as the low centre moves approaches this evening. Once it passes, it will cool back to around 10 °C by Thursday morning. The winds will ease as the low moves through overnight.

On Thursday, Winnipeg and area will continue to see cloudy skies with scattered showers wrapping around the rear flank of the low. With cooler temperatures filtering into the region, some lake-enhanced showers or drizzle will also be possible off the Manitoba Lakes. Temperatures will stay steady around 9 °C with westerly winds up to 30 km/h. Precipitation will taper off Thursday evening, then winds will ease and temperatures will dip to a low near +3 °C.

Friday will bring westerly winds of 20–30 km/h to Winnipeg with temperatures climbing to a high near 9 °C again. Much of the day will bring cloudy skies, but clearing will be working into the Red River Valley through the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be cool on Friday night with a low near 1 °C and light winds under clearing skies.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will warm a bit this weekend as a push of mild Pacific spills eastwards across the Prairies. This will set up another low to start off next week that may bring another batch of showers to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.

Cooler, Unsettled Conditions Arrive

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A large-scale pattern change has brought an end to Winnipeg’s streak of early-fall warmth with the forecast ahead bringing cooler temperatures and wetter conditions.

A series of disturbances will move through southern Manitoba over the coming days and bring several chances for rain to the region. The first is moving through this morning, bringing a few showers to the city while the more organized area of showers and thunderstorms passes to the south and east. The rain should taper off midday, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and light northerly winds.

Temperatures will be much cooler today with a high only around 16 or 17 °C. The cloud cover will break up a bit this evening, but a new low developing in the United States will push overcast skies back in by Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip to around 11 °C tonight.

Saturday will bring cloudy skies and a high near 16 °C. Winds will shift to the northeast at 20–30 km/h as a low in the Dakotas lifts northeast towards the region. A broad area of rain will push into the region Saturday afternoon that will bring rain to Winnipeg into Sunday morning. Rainfall totals from this system by Sunday morning will likely sit in the 20–50 mm range. The highest amounts will fall along the western escarpment of the Red River Valley where northeasterly upslope winds will enhance the rain rates in that region. In Winnipeg, rainfall totals will likely sit in the 15–25 mm range. Some uncertainty associated with this system could nudge that a little bit in either direction.

The winds will ease Saturday night as temperatures dip to a low near 14 °C.

On Sunday the low pressure system will track across southern Manitoba. As it crosses the area, it will sustain a band of rain along its western flank that weakens through the day. It appears that this should stay west of Winnipeg, running from the central Interlake towards the Pilot Mound region. This band will produce another 5–10 mm of rain on Sunday. For Winnipeg and other areas to the east, Sunday will bring cloudy skies with a chance of showers or drizzle.

RDPS 48 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 00Z Monday October 11, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see accumulating rainfall on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will climb to a high near 16 °C on Sunday with northerly winds picking up to 20 km/h.

The location of the rain band to the west of Winnipeg will be very sensitive to the low track; if the low ends up further east than forecast, Winnipeg may end up under that band of rain on Sunday.

The low will track out of Manitoba on Sunday night. There will be a chance for scattered showers behind it as northwest winds of 20–30 km/h sweep through. Temperatures will dip to a low near 10 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see plenty of cloud through the first half of next week. Temperatures will stay near seasonal values and there will be a slight chance of showers. Heading into the second half of the week, weather models show a rather vigorous Colorado Low devloping. It is forecast to lift northwards into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday into Friday. This will likely mark the first major fall storm for the Prairies this year, and fortunately snow looks unlikely with it right now.

Winnipeggers may find themselves longing for the sun by the time it makes more than a brief appearance next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 1 °C.

Warmth Continues Until Friday, Then Unsettled

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Winnipeg will see another couple days of beautiful warm weather before a large-scale pattern change brings cooler and unsettled weather back to the region.

The upper ridge that brought highs close to the 30 °C mark yesterday will continue to bring seasonably hot conditions for a couple more days. Winnipeg will see breezy southerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h over the next couple days as temperatures climb to highs in the upper 20s. Solidly in the warm air, Winnipeg will see another mild low near 16 °C tonight, but temperatures will dip a tad cooler on Thursday night as the warm air begins to move off to the east. The city will see sunny skies today while Thursday will start sunny with cloud moving in through the afternoon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 06Z Friday October 8, 2021
A cold front will push across southern Manitoba on Thursday night.

On Friday, an upper trough moving in from the west coast will push a cold front into southern Manitoba. At the same time, a shortwave will lift out of the Dakotas and will support an area of rain that will move to the northeast. These two things combined will bring cooler, cloudier weather to Winnipeg as winds shift to the north. The city will see a high near 18 °C on Friday with a good chance of rain through the day. The chance for a bit more rain will continue on Friday night as temperatures dip to a low near 12 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Friday marks the beginning of a shift to a much more unsettled pattern that will persist through the weekend and into next week. More rain is likely this weekend with the potential for some more organized accumulations across the region. Conditions will settle with mild temperatures to start next week, then another large storm system is forecast to move in mid-week, bringing the potential for a substantial rainfall and a return to seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 2 °C.

Sunny & Warm Days Ahead

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It’s more late-season warmth ahead for Winnipeg with sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-20s.

An upper ridge will build over Manitoba in the coming days, bringing yet more late-season warmth to the region. Temperatures will climb into the mid- to upper-20s over the next few days with plenty of sunshine. Winds will be light today, but moderate southerlies will develop on Tuesday. The wind will pick up to around 40 gusting 60 km/h tomorrow, then ease into the 30–40 km/h range tomorrow night. The wind will stay breezy on Wednesday out of the south at 30 gusting 50 km/h.

RDPS 2m Temperature valid 21Z October 5, 2021
Very warm conditions will spread across the southern Prairies on Tuesday.

Overnight lows will also be seasonably mild, dipping down into the 10–15 °C range over the coming nights.

Long Range Outlook

This pattern will begin to break down later this week as a large upper trough begins to swing into the region from the west. The warm weather will linger to the end of the work week, but with an increased chance of showers beginning on Friday. Temperatures will return to near-seasonal values this weekend with a few more chances of showers.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 2 °C.